Download or read book Explaining Inflation in Colombia A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach written by Mr.Sergi Lanau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.
Download or read book Explaining Infaltion in Colombia written by Sergi Lanau and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.
Download or read book Algeria written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-02 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Algeria: Selected Issues
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Development Report 2009 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Download or read book Preliminary Considerations of an Inflation Targeting Framework for the Philippines written by Ms.G. C. Lim and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-03-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy in the Philippines has had multiple objectives. Moreover, shifts in money demand and the money multiplier have made base money a less reliable anchor for monetary policy. Hence, on present policies, a steady reduction in inflation is not assured, and changes to the monetary policy framework should be considered. This paper reviews the benefits as well as the constraints of an inflation targeting framework and the necessary preconditions--both in terms of the institutional infrastructure and the appropriate inflation target--for its successful implementation, including the ability to forecast inflation reasonably well over policy-relevant time horizons.
Download or read book Bank Privatization and Productivity written by Márcio Issao Nakane and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, the Brazilian banking industry has undergone major and deep transformations with several privatizations of state-owned banks, mergers and acquisitions, closing down of troubled banks, entry by foreign banks, and so on. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of these changes in banking on total factor productivity. The authors first obtain measures of bank level productivity by employing the techniques due to Levinsohn and Petrin (2003). They then relate such measures to a set of bank characteristics. Their main results indicate that state-owned banks are less productive than their private peers, and that privatization has increased productivity.
Download or read book Conditional Cash Transfers written by Ariel Fiszbein and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty by making welfare programs conditional upon the receivers' actions. That is, the government only transfers the money to persons who meet certain criteria. These criteria may include enrolling children into public schools, getting regular check-ups at the doctor's office, receiving vaccinations, or the like. They have been hailed as a way of reducing inequality and helping households break out of a vicious cycle whereby poverty is transmitted from one generation to another. Do these and other claims make sense? Are they supported by the available empirical evidence? This volume seeks to answer these and other related questions. Specifically, it lays out a conceptual framework for thinking about the economic rationale for CCTs; it reviews the very rich evidence that has accumulated on CCTs; it discusses how the conceptual framework and the evidence on impacts should inform the design of CCT programs in practice; and it discusses how CCTs fit in the context of broader social policies. The authors show that there is considerable evidence that CCTs have improved the lives of poor people and argue that conditional cash transfers have been an effective way of redistributing income to the poor. They also recognize that even the best-designed and managed CCT cannot fulfill all of the needs of a comprehensive social protection system. They therefore need to be complemented with other interventions, such as workfare or employment programs, and social pensions.
Download or read book A Web Based Approach to Measure Skill Mismatches and Skills Profiles for a Developing Country written by Jeisson Arley Cárdenas Rubio and published by Editorial Universidad del Rosario. This book was released on 2020-12-30 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Several interdisciplinary studies highlight imperfect information as a possible explanation of skill mismatches, which in turn has implications for unemployment and informality rates. Despite information failures and their consequences, countries like Colombia (where informality and unemployment rates are high) lack a proper labour market information system to identify skill mismatches and employer skill requirements. One reason for this absence is the cost of collecting labour market data. Recently, the potential use of online job portals as a source of labour market information has gained the attention of researchers and policymakers, since these portals can provide quick and relatively low-cost data collection. As such, these portals could be of use for Colombia. However, debates continue about the efficacy of this use, particularly concerning the robustness of the collected data. This book implements a novel mixed-methods approach (such as web scraping, text mining, machine learning, etc.) to investigate to what extent a web-based model of skill mismatches can be developed for Colombia. The main contribution of this book is demonstrating that, with the proper techniques, job portals can be a robust source of labour market information. In doing so, it also contributes to current knowledge by developing a conceptual and methodological approach to identify skills, occupations, and skill mismatches using online job advertisements, which would otherwise be too complex to be collected and analysed via other means. By applying this novel methodology, this study provides new empirical data on the extent and nature of skill mismatches in Colombia for a considerable set of non-agricultural occupations in the urban and formal economy. Moreover, this information can be used as a complement to household surveys to monitor potential skill shortages. Thus, the findings are useful for policymakers, statisticians, and education and training providers, among others."
Download or read book Reforming Infrastructure written by Ioannis Nicolaos Kessides and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2004 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, railways, and water supply, are often vertically and horizontally integrated state monopolies. This results in weak services, especially in developing and transition economies, and for poor people. Common problems include low productivity, high costs, bad quality, insufficient revenue, and investment shortfalls. Many countries over the past two decades have restructured, privatized and regulated their infrastructure. This report identifies the challenges involved in this massive policy redirection. It also assesses the outcomes of these changes, as well as their distributional consequences for poor households and other disadvantaged groups. It recommends directions for future reforms and research to improve infrastructure performance, identifying pricing policies that strike a balance between economic efficiency and social equity, suggesting rules governing access to bottleneck infrastructure facilities, and proposing ways to increase poor people's access to these crucial services.
Download or read book Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works written by Ray C. FAIR and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a new age economy.
Download or read book Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.
Download or read book The Wage Curve written by David G. Blanchflower and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical law of economics.
Download or read book Measuring Core Inflation written by Danny Quah and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
