Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger Cooke and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains an extensive survey and critical examination of current views on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy-making.
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-06-27 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Download or read book Managing Uncertainty in Expert Systems written by Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 3. Textbook for a course in expert systems,if an emphasis is placed on Chapters 1 to 3 and on a selection of material from Chapters 4 to 7. There is also the option of using an additional commercially available sheU for a programming project. In assigning a programming project, the instructor may use any part of a great variety of books covering many subjects, such as car repair. Instructions for mostofthe "weekend mechanic" books are close stylisticaUy to expert system rules. Contents Chapter 1 gives an introduction to the subject matter; it briefly presents basic concepts, history, and some perspectives ofexpert systems. Then itpresents the architecture of an expert system and explains the stages of building an expert system. The concept of uncertainty in expert systems and the necessity of deal ing with the phenomenon are then presented. The chapter ends with the descrip tion of taxonomy ofexpert systems. Chapter 2 focuses on knowledge representation. Four basic ways to repre sent knowledge in expert systems are presented: first-order logic, production sys tems, semantic nets, and frames. Chapter 3 contains material about knowledge acquisition. Among machine learning techniques, a methodofrule learning from examples is explained in de tail. Then problems ofrule-base verification are discussed. In particular, both consistency and completeness oftherule base are presented.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy written by S.O. Funtowicz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the notational system NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) and applies it to several examples from the environmental sciences. The authors are now making further extensions of NUSAP, including an algorithm for the propagation of quality-grades through models used in risk and safety studies. They are also developing the concept of `Post-normal Science', in which quality assurance of information requires the participation of `extended peer-communities' lying outside the traditional expertise.
Download or read book Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-17 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Download or read book Be More Pirate written by Sam Conniff Allende and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2018-05-03 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whatever your ambitions, ideas and challenges, this book will revolutionize the way you live, think and work today, and tomorrow. Pirates didn't just break the rules, they rewrote them. They didn't just reject society, they reinvented it. Pirates didn't just challenge the status-quo, they changed everyfuckingthing. Pirates faced a self-interested establishment, a broken system, industrial scale disruption and an uncertain future. Sound familiar? Pirates stood for MISCHIEF, PURPOSE and POWER. And you can too. In Be More Pirate, Sam Conniff Allende unveils the innovative strategies of Golden Age pirates, drawing parallels between the tactics and teachings of legends like Henry Morgan and Blackbeard with modern rebels, like Elon Musk, Malala and Banksy. Featuring takeaway sections and a guide to build you own pirate code 2.0, Be More Pirate will show you how to leave your mark on the 21st century. So what are you waiting for? Join the rebellion now. ----- 'Unique...reminds me of the fun we've had with our airlines' - Sir Richard Branson 'Totally compelling' Ed Miliband 'I'd rather be a pirate than join the navy' Steve Jobs 'A model for how to break the system and create radical change' Evening Standard 'Be More Pirate feels so important as it looks to history to help us grip the future' Martha Lane Fox 'This isn't a book, it's the beginning of a movement. Be More Pirate should come with a health warning' Tom Goodwin, author of Digital Darwinism
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences Fuzzy Logic Statistics and Neural Network Approach written by Bilal Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-10-31 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
Download or read book The Science and Management of Uncertainty written by Bruce G. Marcot and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
Download or read book Risk Intelligence written by Dylan Evans and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author of Placebo: The Belief Effect draws on real-life examples and detailed research findings to counsel readers on how to make appropriate decisions based on accurate assessments of risk, revealing common flaws in human thinking processes that compromise personal judgment. 40,000 first printing.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Engineering written by Louis J. M. Aslett and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty in a Post Truth Society written by Sander van der Linden and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume looks at whether it is possible to be more transparent about uncertainty in scientific evidence without undermining public understanding and trust. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this book explores the communication of risk and decision-making in an increasingly post-truth world. Drawing on case studies from climate change to genetic testing, the authors argue for better quality evidence synthesis to cut through the noise and highlight the need for more structured public dialogue. For uncertainty in scientific evidence to be communicated effectively, they conclude that trustworthiness is vital: the data and methods underlying statistics must be transparent, valid, and sound, and the numbers need to demonstrate practical utility and add social value to people’s lives. Presenting a conceptual framework to help navigate the reader through the key social and scientific challenges of a post-truth era, this book will be of great relevance to students, scholars, and policy makers with an interest in risk analysis and communication.
