Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility Response to Macroeconomic News written by Walid Ben Omrane and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the state-dependent volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in the euro-dollar, pound-dollar and yen-dollar markets between 2005 and 2009. Unlike the traditional event studies that define economic states based on exogenously determined thresholds, we employ the smooth transition regression model, which allows for the possibility of a gradual as well as an instantaneous regime change. Our results suggest that, on average, for about 40 percent of the major news indicators, the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news is larger in expansions compared to the recession period in the three currency markets. Non-farm payroll employment, GDP advance release, retail sales, trade deficit and CPI announcements are consistently associated with larger volatility response in expansions. New home sales and the Fed funds rate announcements, on the other hand, generate larger market reactions in the recession period. We attribute the pattern associated with new home sales and the Fed funds rate to the unique role the real estate and credit markets played in the 2008 recession. We show that different types of macroeconomic news indicators generate different shapes of transition functions. Specifically, the estimated transition function based on the housing starts data indicates a more gradual regime change compared to other indicators.

Download or read book The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility written by Helinä Laakkonen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä: Makrouutisten vaikutus valuuttakurssin volatiliteettiin.

Download or read book Macroeconomic News Surprises and Volatility Spillover in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Walid Ben Omrane and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper addresses the central open issue in exchange rate economics: the link between exchange rate volatility and economic fundamentals. In the framework of a multivariate volatility model that allows for volatility spillover, we develop a new impulse response analysis to estimate and decompose the simultaneous effect of macroeconomic news surprises on the foreign exchange volatility. We show that news announcement effects include two components; a direct and an indirect effect induced by volatility spillover. We show that more than 50% of the total accumulated news effect on the Pound and the Yen are due to volatility transmission from the two major currencies and mainly from the Euro.

Download or read book Micro Effects of Macro Announcements written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or 'news') produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.

Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomic News surprises and the Rand dollar Exchange written by Johannes W. Fedderke and published by . This book was released on 2005* with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Economic theory in the context of floating exchange rates has focussed on underlying medium and long term direction of exchange rate movements. Daily volatility is less well understood. One theory that offers an explanation for short term exchange rate movements is that of the efficient market hypothesis or EMH. Its application to the forex market allows exchange rate movements to be understood as the reaction of traders to relevant news. In an efficient market traders react to news and specifically to surprise news events which necessitate a re-evaluation of the currency value. We test for the validity of this hypothesis in the context of the daily rand/dollar forex market over a three year period, adding an emerging market case to the literature. We test the significance of macroeconomic news surprises -measured by the difference between actual and forecast data - in driving daily exchange rates. We find that surprises in both real and nominal variables cause a statistically significant reaction in the exchange rate. The results support an asymmetry between news of different origin as only surprises that originate in the U.S. prove significant. Good news also seems to receive greater attention from traders than bad news in our sample. Finally, we find that the statistical significance of variables is time-varying"--Publisher's website.

Download or read book Central Bank Communication and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Roman Horvath and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of the Czech National Bank communication, macroeconomic news and interest rate differential on exchange rate volatility using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Our results suggest that central bank communication has a calming effect on exchange rate volatility. The timing of central bank communication seems to matter, too, as financial markets respond more to the communication before the policy meetings than after them. Next, macroeconomic news releases are found to reduce exchange rate volatility, while interest rate differential seems to increase it.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Models are Not as Bad as You Think written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard models of exchange rates, based on macroeconomic variables such as prices, interest rates, output, etc., are thought by many researchers to have failed empirically. We present evidence to the contrary. First, we emphasize the point that "beating a random walk" in forecasting is too strong a criterion for accepting an exchange rate model. Typically models should have low forecasting power of this type. We then propose a number of alternative ways to evaluate models. We examine in-sample fit, but emphasize the importance of the monetary policy rule, and its effects on expectations, in determining exchange rates. Next we present evidence that exchange rates incorporate news about future macroeconomic fundamentals, as the models imply. We demonstrate that the models might well be able to account for observed exchange-rate volatility. We discuss studies that examine the response of exchange rates to announcements of economic data. Then we present estimates of exchange-rate models in which expected present values of fundamentals are calculated from survey forecasts. Finally, we show that out-of-sample forecasting power of models can be increased by focusing on panel estimation and long-horizon forecasts.

Download or read book Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Communication written by Andreas Grün and published by Grin Publishing. This book was released on 2011-09-14 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, Otto Beisheim School of Management Vallendar, course: Seminar in International Finance, language: English, abstract: The overall aim of this paper is first to review existing papers and based on this to conduct own research in the field of the effect of macroeconomic news in general and, more specific, ECB communication on exchange rates. Exchange rate communication is a special form of macroeconomic news that is issued by central banks. Existing research on the effect of this communication has lead to often diverging result that illustrate the high intensity and dynamics of the current academic debate with regard to this matter. On one hand evidence of a relatively high impact on the mean and volatility of currency markets is found (e.g. by Fratzscher (2004)) whereas others (e.g. Jansen, de Haan (2005)) do not chronicle statistically significant and persistent results. The difficulty of understanding the response of currency markets becomes even harder when the significance of the respective context of news e.g. day of the week effect is considered or asymmetric responses are taken into account. Among the group of central banks especially the European Central Bank has attracted high attention in academic research. Preceding studies generally create dummy variables to measure ECB communication. These variables are then by different methods regressed against the exchange rate or other financial assets in order to find explanatory relationships. This paper follows this approach by using the dummy variable of Rosa, Verga (2006). Ultimately we arrive at three major findings using our dataset. (a) Communication and interest changes by central banks are interpreted differently by currency markets: While communication that suggests raising interest rates seems to b

Download or read book The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior written by Richard Payne and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the high frequency reaction of the DEM/USD exchange rate to publicly announced macroeconomic information emanating from Germany and the U.S. By using data sampled at a five-minute frequency, we are able to identify significant impacts of most announcements on the exchange rate change in the 15 minutes post-announcement, although the significance of these effects decreases rapidly as the interval over which the post-announcement change in exchange rates is increased. The direction of the exchange rate response conforms, in general, with a reaction function interpretation whereby reactions to macroeconomic news are driven by the likely operations of monetary authorities in domestic money markets. Further, we detect influences of German monetary policy decisions on the reaction of the exchange rate, and also differences between U.S. and German announcements in the exchange rate reaction time pattern.

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.

Download or read book EURUSD Exchange Rate written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the movements of currency exchange rates is a longstanding topic in financial market research. Short-term movements are considered to be at least partially explained by the arrival of new information to the market. One way to observe such reactions is to look at scheduled macroeconomic data releases and analyze how markets react if the actual number differs from what was expected. Most studies in this field so far focused on US news announcements. This thesis looks at the euro-dollar exchange rate movements from 2007-2014. It compares news surprises for German, Eurozone and US macroeconomic releases. As opposed to previous studies, the impact of US surprises in recent years appears less dominant, while simultaneously at least German news surprises have the power to move the currency pair when looking at the continuous returns in the first five minutes following the release. Furthermore, it is shown that the response to news surprises change over time alongside fluctuations in the business cycle.

Download or read book Impact of Macroeconomic News on Foreign Exchange Volatility written by Tseke Maserumule and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases written by Hali J. Edison and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the response of exchange rates and interest rates--U.S. and foreign--to economic news. The news is associated with the surprise component of the monthly release of six U.S. macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that dollar exchange rates systematically react to news about real economic activity--a surprise of 100,000 on non-farm payroll employment leads to a 0.2 percent appreciation of the exchange rate. In general, exchange rates do not react systematically to news on inflation. By contrast, U.S. interest rates respond to both types of news, although the response continues to be extremely small, on the order of 1 to 2 basis points. Finally, Japanese interest rates systematically react, but to a very minor extent, to news about U.S. real economic activity, while German rates, in general, do not.

Download or read book Research on Pandemics written by Yezhou Sha and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2021-11-24 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lasting turmoil associated with the unprecedented pandemic, triggered by the novel corona virus COVID-19, has dragged the world into a mud of uncertainty. Fiscal stimulation, interest rate cuts, global supply-chain redeployment, "pandemic bond" and circuit breakers kicked in and the world is responding to this great challenge. But how can finance and economic research help the world under such circumstances? This book dwells on this new area of research and tries to understand how pandemics impact the economic and financial ecosystem of both emerging and advanced economies. Lessons learnt from the experience of previous pandemics maybe presented and discussed through drawing on policy lessons to date. By gathering research on political economy, geopolitical issues, behavioral finance, international institutional responses and medical and health issues resulting from pandemics, the chapters in this edited volume help in expanding the knowledge of social and economic consequences of the pandemic as well as set the foundation for future research. This book would benefit scholars, policy makers and entrepreneurs worldwide as a valuable archive of research on pandemics. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Download or read book Foundations of International Macroeconomics written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996-09-12 with total page 830 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foundations of International Macroeconomics is an innovative text that offers the first integrative modern treatment of the core issues in open economy macroeconomics and finance. With its clear and accessible style, it is suitable for first-year graduate macroeconomics courses as well as graduate courses in international macroeconomics and finance. Each chapter incorporates an extensive and eclectic array of empirical evidence. For the beginning student, these examples provide motivation and aid in understanding the practical value of the economic models developed. For advanced researchers, they highlight key insights and conundrums in the field. Topic coverage includes intertemporal consumption and investment theory, government spending and budget deficits, finance theory and asset pricing, the implications of (and problems inherent in) international capital market integration, growth, inflation and seignorage, policy credibility, real and nominal exchange rate determination, and many interesting special topics such as speculative attacks, target exchange rate zones, and parallels between immigration and capital mobility. Most main results are derived both for the small country and world economy cases. The first seven chapters cover models of the real economy, while the final three chapters incorporate the economy's monetary side, including an innovative approach to bridging the usual chasm between real and monetary models.

Download or read book Macroeconomic News Exchange Rate and Equity Returns written by Sandro Kraft and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The joint reactions of numerous markets in both Europe and the United States as well as three major US dollar currency pairs to US macroeconomic news announcement is studied and examined using standard theory and analysis. Relative to existing and current research a most recent data sample - 21st of July 2011 is the last data entry - is considered, the most recent crisis - financial crisis in 2007-2008 and economic recession in 2008-2009 - are included in the sample and three major markets - US financial markets, European financial markets and the foreign exchange markets focusing on US dollar exchange rates - are examined. After identifying macroeconomic variables and performing a biasedness test, the analysis identifies four variables (durable goods orders, non-farm payroll, trade balance and unemployment) for exchange rates; five variables (durable goods orders, non-farm payroll, trade balance, retail sales and unemployment) for European equity indices; and one variable, consumer confidence, to have a significant influence. Typically, the R2 for the variables are lower than in previous research, but not contradictory lower. Overall R2 are also lower and in two cases almost contradictory low. A test performed to identify different reaction by the market to good and bad news shows that with three exceptions, reactions are not significantly different conditional on the news. After the analysis, five possible reasons are stated why results in this paper differ from previous research and explain the shortcomings of the model used.