Download or read book Exchange Rate Risk Premiums Expectations and the Kalman Filter written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics Learning and Misperception written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.
Download or read book Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-18 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a critical review of the empirical literature that studies the efficiency of the forward and futures markets for foreign exchange. It provides a useful foundation for research in developing quantitative measures of risk and expected return in international finance.
Download or read book More Evidence on the Dollar Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Dennis Bams and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Time series Properties of Time varying Risk Premium in the Yen dollar Exchange Market written by Fabio Canova and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to characterize the changes in risk premium in the 1980s. A five-variable vector autoregressive model (VAR) is constructed to calculate a risk premium series in the foreign exchange market. The risk premium series is volatile and time-varying. The hypothesis of no risk premium is strongly rejected for the entire sample and each of the two subsamples considered. Various tests using the constructed risk premium series suggest that a risk premium existed but it was neither constant nor stable over subsamples and that its volatility was considerably reduced after October 1982.
Download or read book The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets Routledge Revivals written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.
Download or read book Restricted Kalman Filtering written by Adrian Pizzinga and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-25 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In statistics, the Kalman filter is a mathematical method whose purpose is to use a series of measurements observed over time, containing random variations and other inaccuracies, and produce estimates that tend to be closer to the true unknown values than those that would be based on a single measurement alone. This Brief offers developments on Kalman filtering subject to general linear constraints. There are essentially three types of contributions: new proofs for results already established; new results within the subject; and applications in investment analysis and macroeconomics, where the proposed methods are illustrated and evaluated. The Brief has a short chapter on linear state space models and the Kalman filter, aiming to make the book self-contained and to give a quick reference to the reader (notation and terminology). The prerequisites would be a contact with time series analysis in the level of Hamilton (1994) or Brockwell & Davis (2002) and also with linear state models and the Kalman filter – each of these books has a chapter entirely dedicated to the subject. The book is intended for graduate students, researchers and practitioners in statistics (specifically: time series analysis and econometrics).
Download or read book The Kalman Filter in Finance written by C. Wells and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A non-technical introduction to the question of modeling with time-varying parameters, using the beta coefficient from Financial Economics as the main example. After a brief introduction to this coefficient for those not versed in finance, the book presents a number of rather well known tests for constant coefficients and then performs these tests on data from the Stockholm Exchange. The Kalman filter is then introduced and a simple example is used to demonstrate the power of the filter. The filter is then used to estimate the market model with time-varying betas. The book concludes with further examples of how the Kalman filter may be used in estimation models used in analyzing other aspects of finance. Since both the programs and the data used in the book are available for downloading, the book is especially valuable for students and other researchers interested in learning the art of modeling with time varying coefficients.
Download or read book The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fama(1984) analyzed the variability and the covariation of risk premiums and expected rates of depreciation. We employ three statistical techniques that do not suffer from a potential bias in Fama's analysis, but we nevertheless confirm his findings. In contrast to his interpretation the results are not necessarily at variance with the predictions of a theoretical model of the risk premium. Increases in expected rates of depreciation of the dollar relative to five foreign currencies are positively correlated with increases in the expected profitability of purchasing these currencies in the forward market, and risk premiums have larger variances than expected rates of depreciation.
Download or read book The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance written by Peijie Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-11-21 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents all major subjects in international monetary theory, foreign exchange markets, international financial management and investment analysis. The book is relevant to real world problems in the sense that it provides guidance on how to solve policy issues as well as practical management tasks. This in turn helps the reader to gain an understanding of the theory and refines the framework. Various topics are interlinked so the book adopts a systematic treatment of integrated materials relating different theories under various circumstances and combining theory with practice. The text examines issues in international monetary policy and financial management in a practical way, focusing on the identification of the factors and players in foreign exchange markets and the international finance arena. The book can be used in graduate and advanced undergraduate programmes in international or global finance, international monetary economics, and international financial management.
Download or read book Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive account of stochastic filtering as a modeling tool in finance and economics. It aims to present this very important tool with a view to making it more popular among researchers in the disciplines of finance and economics. It is not intended to give a complete mathematical treatment of different stochastic filtering approaches, but rather to describe them in simple terms and illustrate their application with real historical data for problems normally encountered in these disciplines. Beyond laying out the steps to be implemented, the steps are demonstrated in the context of different market segments. Although no prior knowledge in this area is required, the reader is expected to have knowledge of probability theory as well as a general mathematical aptitude. Its simple presentation of complex algorithms required to solve modeling problems in increasingly sophisticated financial markets makes this book particularly valuable as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in the field. Furthermore, it analyses the model estimation results in the context of the market and contrasts these with contemporary research publications. It is also suitable for use as a text for graduate level courses on stochastic modeling.
Download or read book The Covariations of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Exchange Rates written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Empirical Investigation of Currency and Term Structure of Interest Rates with Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models and Cointegration written by Ahmet Can Inci and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Spot and Forward Foreign Exchange Rates written by Peter L. Bossaerts and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Affine Term Structure Models for the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium written by Luca Benati and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses two affine term structure models from the Duffie-Kan class - a three-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, and a three-factor model in the spirit of Longstaff and Schwartz - to extract historical estimates of foreign exchange risk premia for the pound with respect to the US dollar. The term structures of interest rates for the two countries are estimated jointly, together with the dynamics of the nominal exchange rates between them, via maximum likelihood. The likelihood function is computed via the Kalman filter, and is maximised numerically with respect to unknown parameters. Particular attention is paid to the robustness of the results across models; to the overall (filter plus parameter) econometric uncertainty associated with risk premia estimates; and to the ability of estimated structures to replicate Fama's quot;forward discount anomaly.quot; The paper's main results may be summarised as follows. First, risk premia estimates are not consistent across the two models. Second, both models fail to replicate the forward discount anomaly, with theoretical values of amp;β in the Fama regressions implied by estimated structures being consistently positive at all horizons from 1 to 12 months.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Risk Premiums in Hong Kong Dollar written by Ip-wing Yu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forward exchange rates convey information about the risk premiums of the currency exposures of the investors. The extraction of these risk premiums provides market information for the expected future values of a currency, which may be useful for policymakers in their market surveillance and monitoring. This study utilises a state-space model and the Kalman-filtering technique to estimate risk premiums of Hong Kong dollar from the forward exchange market from 1996 to 2005. The estimated risk premiums of the 12-motnh forward contract were as high as 3.4% of the spot exchange rate during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The study also finds that the risk premiums have reverted from a discount in late 2004 to close to zero in mid-2005, reflecting that the appreciation pressure on the Hong Kong dollar along with the speculation on the revaluation of the renminbi in early 2005 has subsided after the introduction of the three refinements to the operation of the Linked Exchange Rate system in May 2005 and the reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime in July 2005. The forward exchange rates, after taking the estimated risk premiums into account, do not have a good forecasting capability for the future spot exchange rates. Among the two financial factors that drive the risk premiums in the Hong Kong dollar forward rates, the renminbi non-deliverable forward rates appear to have a larger impact than the Aggregate Balance of the banking system. Nonetheless, both factors are important for monitoring the risk premiums of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.
