Download or read book Exchange Rate Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Money Based Stabilization Programs written by Mr.R. Armando Morales and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complementing the explanation provided by Calvo and Vegh (1994) for money-based stabilization programs, exchange rate uncertainty introduced to a particular version of the portfolio approach with imperfect competition in the banking system leads to a bias toward appreciation that is directly related to the divergence of expectations and that dampens the interaction between portfolio movements and the real exchange rate. Based on Frankel-Froot, uncertainty exists when the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate is temporarily unknown in a foreign exchange market with two types of agents: ‘parity-guessers,’ who expect a jump to a reference parity level, and ‘money-followers,’ who expect nominal depreciation equal to the monetary rule.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Mr.A. Javier Hamann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do exchange-rate-based stabilizations generate distinctive economic dynamics? To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ—especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange-rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not.
Download or read book The Business Cycle Associated with Exchange rate based Stabilization written by Miguel Alberto Kiguel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve tradeoff in the medium run. Instead of having a sharp recession in the early stage of stabilization, there often is an initial expansion of output followed by a recession and balance of payments difficulties. This pattern is related to programs that use the exchange rate as an instrument of disinflation.
Download or read book Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.
Download or read book Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-11-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies price stabilization policy under both predetermined and flexible exchange rates. Under predetermined exchange rates, a non-credible stabilization program results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The initial expansion accompanies an appreciating real exchange rate. Under flexible exchange rates, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program. The real exchange rate appreciates sharply on impact but depreciates afterwards. Lack of credibility is more costly under predetermined exchange rates because the real effects are more pronounced.
Download or read book The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Programs written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-06-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Based Stabilization in Argentina and Chile written by Miguel Alberto Kiguel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1994 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange- rate- based stabilization programs supported by a sustained fiscal adjustment generally reduced long- term inflation. Success was not easy, however, because rigid adherence to the exchange rate rule many times resulted in strong overvaluation of the currency and balance- of- payments problems before stabilization was finally secured.
Download or read book Real Effects of Exchange rate based Stabilization written by Sergio Rebelo and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a unified analytical framework to assess, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the relevance of the different hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the real effects of exchange rate-based stabilizations. The four major hypotheses analyzed are: (i) the supply-side effects associated with an inflation decline; (ii) the perception that the exchange rate peg is temporary; (iii) the fiscal adjustments that tend to accompany the peg; and (iv) the existence of nominal rigidities in wages or prices.
Download or read book Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-03-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.
Download or read book Money Based Versus Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Ari Aisen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-06 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In response to high and chronic inflation, countries have adopted different stabilization policies. However, the extent to which these stabilization programs were designed for political motives is not clear. Since exchange-rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) create an initial consumption boom followed by a contraction, whereas money-based stabilizations (MBS) generate a consumption bust followed by a recovery, policymakers may consider the timing of elections when determining the nominal anchor for stabilization. This paper finds strong evidence that the choice of nominal anchor depends on elections, implying the existence of political opportunism. ERBS are, on average, launched before elections while MBS are set after them.
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.
Download or read book Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors written by Guillermo Calvo and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trade Reform and Inflation Stabilization written by Mr.Vivek B. Arora and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-11-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines two important issues for a small high-inflation open economy with trade controls where the government implements an exchange-rate based stabilization program: first, the extent to which the degree of openness of the economy influences the probability of success of the program; and second, the conditions under which a trade reform, implemented in conjunction with the stabilization program, will increase the probability that stabilization will be successful. The paper shows that in an economy with high export and import price elasticities, structural reforms to increase openness can be important in determining the success of the program.
Download or read book Credit and Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by May Khamis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the behavior of private sector credit in chronic inflation countries that undergo exchange rate-based inflation stabilizations. It concludes that these programs are characterized by a strong increase in private sector credit, both in absolute terms and as a fraction of real economic activity. Empirical results using data for Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and Israel support a negative statistically significant relationship between credit and inflation for Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, but not for Israel. In addition, for both Chile and Mexico, dummy variables representing periods of inflation stabilization are positive and statistically different from zero indicating a stronger expansion in private sector credit during stabilization. These results could potentially explain the consumption boom that is usually present in the early stages of these programs.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Based Stabilization in Western Europe written by Ms.Enrica Detragiache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.
Download or read book Essays on Exchange Rate based Stabilization and Inflation Convergence written by Piero S. Ghezzi and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
