Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
Download or read book Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Benedicte Baduel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.
Download or read book A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local and Foreign Currency Debt written by Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-28 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide presents the analytical underpinnings and a user manual for the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low Income Countries An Assessment of Projection Performance written by Mr.Henry Mooney and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Download or read book International Debt Statistics 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Debt Statistics (IDS), a long-standing annual publication of the World Bank, features external debt statistics and analysis for the 120 low- and middle-income countries that report to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. IDS 2021 includes (1) an overview analyzing global trends in debt stocks of and debt flows to low- and middle-income countries within the framework of aggregate capital flows (debt and equity); (2) a feature story on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Debt Service Suspension Initiative in response to the COVID-19 pandemic; (3) tables and charts detailing debtor and creditor composition of debt stock and flows, terms of new commitments, and maturity structure of future debt service payments and debt burdens, measured in relation to gross national income and export earnings for each country; (4) one-page summaries per country, plus global, regional, and income group aggregates showing debt stocks and flows, relevant debt indicators, and metadata for six years (2009 and 2015†“19); and (5) a user guide describing the tables and content, definitions and rationale for the country and income groupings used in the report, data notes, and information about additional resources and comprehensive data sets available to users online. Unique in its coverage of the important trends and issues fundamental to the financing of low- and middle-income countries, IDS 2021 is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. For more information on IDS 2021 and related products, please visit the World Bank’s Data Catalog at https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/international-debt-statistics.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice written by Craig Burnside and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries written by Mr.Giovanni Melina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open economy. It has two types of households, including poor households with no access to financial markets, and features traded and nontraded sectors as well as a natural resource sector. Public capital enters production technologies, while public investment is subject to inefficiencies and absorptive capacity constraints. The government has access to different types of debt (concessional, domestic and external commercial) and a resource fund, which can be used to finance public investment plans. The resource fund can also serve as a buffer to absorb fiscal balances for given projections of resource revenues and public investment plans. When the fund is drawn down to its minimal value, a combination of external and domestic borrowing can be used to cover the fiscal gap in the short to medium run. Fiscal adjustments through tax rates and government non-capital expenditures—which may be constrained by ceilings and floors, respectively—are then triggered to maintain debt sustainability. The paper illustrates how the model can be particularly useful to assess debt sustainability in countries that borrow against future resource revenues to scale up public investment.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Download or read book Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt written by Cansın Kemal Can and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.
Download or read book Public Sector Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-08 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides published by the IMF, this one was prepared in consultation with countries and international agencies, including the nine organizations of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS). The guide's preparation was based on the broad range of experience of our institutions and benefitted from consultation with national compilers of government finance and public sector debt statistics. The guide's concepts are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (2008) and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition.
Download or read book Solomon Islands written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Solomon Islands grew by 3.5 percent in 2016 driven by a peak in the forestry sector. Growth remained solid in 2017 and is projected at 3.0 for 2018, buoyed by infrastructure spending, fisheries and agriculture, although logging production is slowing down. Inflation is contained at an annual rate of just 1.6 percent in October 2017. The current account deficit has widened a little but international reserves levels are comfortable. The fiscal deficit is expected to have reached 4.0 percent of GDP in 2017 and to widen further in 2018. The risks to the economy are on the downside with the weakening fiscal position heightening vulnerability to shocks.
Download or read book Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low Income Countries written by Benedicte Baduel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
Download or read book Made in Africa written by Carol Newman and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2016-02-23 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why is there so little industry in Africa? Over the past forty years, industry has moved from the developed to the developing world, yet Africa’s share of global manufacturing has fallen from about 3 percent in 1970 to less than 2 percent in 2014. Industry is important to low-income countries. It is good for economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. Made in Africa: Learning to Compete in Industry outlines a new strategy to help African industry compete in global markets. This book draws on case studies and econometric and qualitative research from Africa and emerging Asia to understand what drives firm-level competitiveness in low-income countries. The results show that while traditional concerns such as infrastructure, skills, and the regulatory environment are important, they alone will not be sufficient for Africa to industrialize. The book also addresses how industrialization strategies will need to adapt to the region’s growing resource abundance.
