Download or read book Estimation and Inference for Exponential Smooth Transition Nonlinear Volatility Models written by Cathy W. S. Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A family of threshold nonlinear generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models is considered, that allows smooth transitions between regimes, capturing size asymmetry via an exponential smooth transition function. A Bayesian approach is taken and an efficient adaptive sampling scheme is employed for inference, including a novel extension to a recently proposed prior for the smoothing parameter that solves a likelihood identification problem. A simulation study illustrates that the sampling scheme performs well, with the chosen prior kept close to uninformative, while successfully ensuring identification of model parameters and accurate inference for the smoothing parameter. An empirical study confirms the potential suitability of the model, highlighting the presence of both mean and volatility (size) asymmetry; while the model is favoured over modern, popular model competitors, including those with sign asymmetry, via the deviance information criterion.

Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Download or read book Identification and Estimation Issues in Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models written by Daniel Buncic and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Download or read book Smooth Transition Models and Arbitrage Consistency written by David A. Peel and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers, stimulating the adoption of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful, providing faster adjustment speeds. This paper discusses some of its theoretical limitations, for example that expectations are adaptive. We propose a new nonlinear model conceptually superior to the ESTAR model since it is consistent with rational expectations. One of its advantages is that it can be solved and estimated by nonlinear least squares. Using monthly post-1973 real exchange rate data, we show that the model implies even faster speeds of adjustment.

Download or read book GARCH Models written by Christian Francq and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a comprehensive and updated study of GARCH models and their applications in finance, covering new developments in the discipline This book provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding GARCH time series models and their applications whilst presenting the most advanced results concerning the theory and practical aspects of GARCH. The probability structure of standard GARCH models is studied in detail as well as statistical inference such as identification, estimation, and tests. The book also provides new coverage of several extensions such as multivariate models, looks at financial applications, and explores the very validation of the models used. GARCH Models: Structure, Statistical Inference and Financial Applications, 2nd Edition features a new chapter on Parameter-Driven Volatility Models, which covers Stochastic Volatility Models and Markov Switching Volatility Models. A second new chapter titled Alternative Models for the Conditional Variance contains a section on Stochastic Recurrence Equations and additional material on EGARCH, Log-GARCH, GAS, MIDAS, and intraday volatility models, among others. The book is also updated with a more complete discussion of multivariate GARCH; a new section on Cholesky GARCH; a larger emphasis on the inference of multivariate GARCH models; a new set of corrected problems available online; and an up-to-date list of references. Features up-to-date coverage of the current research in the probability, statistics, and econometric theory of GARCH models Covers significant developments in the field, especially in multivariate models Contains completely renewed chapters with new topics and results Handles both theoretical and applied aspects Applies to researchers in different fields (time series, econometrics, finance) Includes numerous illustrations and applications to real financial series Presents a large collection of exercises with corrections Supplemented by a supporting website featuring R codes, Fortran programs, data sets and Problems with corrections GARCH Models, 2nd Edition is an authoritative, state-of-the-art reference that is ideal for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in business and finance seeking to broaden their skills of understanding of econometric time series models.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models written by Luc Bauwens and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-01-06 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an up-to-date coverage of the last twenty years advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of Bayesian inference for linear regression models. It thus covers a broad range of rather recent models for economic time series, such as non linear models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic regressions, and cointegrated vector autoregressive models. It contains also an extensive chapter on unit root inference from the Bayesian viewpoint. Several examples illustrate the methods.

Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series written by Jianqing Fan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-11 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.

Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series Analysis written by Ruey S. Tsay and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-09-14 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.

Download or read book Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series written by Timo Teräsvirta and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-12-16 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an extensive up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows the reader how to apply these models in practice. For thispurpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried outusing numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones.Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter isdevoted to state space models. As a whole, the book is an indispensable tool for researchers interested in nonlinear time series and is also suitable for teaching courses in econometrics and time series analysis.

Download or read book Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models Through Indirect Inference written by Chiara Monfardini and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Download or read book A Time Series Approach to Option Pricing written by Christophe Chorro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current world financial scene indicates at an intertwined and interdependent relationship between financial market activity and economic health. This book explains how the economic messages delivered by the dynamic evolution of financial asset returns are strongly related to option prices. The Black Scholes framework is introduced and by underlining its shortcomings, an alternative approach is presented that has emerged over the past ten years of academic research, an approach that is much more grounded on a realistic statistical analysis of data rather than on ad hoc tractable continuous time option pricing models. The reader then learns what it takes to understand and implement these option pricing models based on time series analysis in a self-contained way. The discussion covers modeling choices available to the quantitative analyst, as well as the tools to decide upon a particular model based on the historical datasets of financial returns. The reader is then guided into numerical deduction of option prices from these models and illustrations with real examples are used to reflect the accuracy of the approach using datasets of options on equity indices.

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​The Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics provides, in four volumes and over 100 chapters, a comprehensive overview of the primary methodologies in econometrics and statistics as applied to financial research. Including overviews of key concepts by the editors and in-depth contributions from leading scholars around the world, the Handbook is the definitive resource for both classic and cutting-edge theories, policies, and analytical techniques in the field. Volume 1 (Parts I and II) covers all of the essential theoretical and empirical approaches. Volumes 2, 3, and 4 feature contributed entries that showcase the application of financial econometrics and statistics to such topics as asset pricing, investment and portfolio research, option pricing, mutual funds, and financial accounting research. Throughout, the Handbook offers illustrative case examples and applications, worked equations, and extensive references, and includes both subject and author indices.​

Download or read book Volatility Forecasting Using Threshold Heteroskedastic Models of the Intra day Range written by Cathy W. S. Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An effective approach for forecasting return volatility via threshold nonlinear heteroskedastic models of the daily asset price range is provided. The return is defined as the difference between the highest and lowest log intra-day asset price. A general model specification is proposed, allowing the intra-day high-low price range to depend nonlinearly on past information, or an exogenous variable such as US market information. The model captures aspects such as sign or size asymmetry and heteroskedasticity, which are commonly observed in financial markets. The focus is on parameter estimation, inference and volatility forecasting in a Bayesian framework. An MCMC sampling scheme is employed for estimation and shown to work well in simulation experiments. Finally, competing range-based and return-based heteroskedastic models are compared via out-of-sample forecast performance. Applied to six international financial market indices, the range-based threshold heteroskedastic models are well supported by the data in terms of finding significant threshold nonlinearity, diagnostic checking and volatility forecast performance under various volatility proxies.

Download or read book International Journal of forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics written by and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 7493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.