Download or read book Estimating the Travel Behavior Effects of Technological Innovations from Cross sectional Observed Data written by Gouri Shankar Mishra and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, we estimate effects on travel behavior of two specific technological innovations – emerging shared mobility services and telecommuting – using publicly available travel surveys. These surveys are cross-sectional and observational in nature, which leads to the potential for (1) selection bias due to observed and unobserved differences in characteristics between program participants and non-participants; and (2) reverse causality bias arising because of potential influence of the travel behavior outcome of interest on the propensity to enroll in the program. Our methodological framework combines established methods from both statistical and econometric literature to draw causal inferences. The key innovations in this dissertation are the combination of diverse methods to address the joint occurrence of various biases, and their specific empirical applications. We also compare the results of alternative methods. In the first study (Parts II & III of the dissertation), we estimate the effect of carsharing on travel behavior, using data on employed San Francisco Bay Area respondents from the 2011-12 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS). We find that 80% of the observed difference of 0.9 units in average vehicle holdings between carsharing non-members and members may be explained by self-selection and reverse causality biases. The remaining difference of 0.17 units reflects the estimated effect of carsharing, which is the equivalent of shedding one vehicle by about one out of every six households whose member(s) are enrolled in carsharing. The effect on transit usage and walking and biking frequency is positive, albeit small and statistically non-significant. In the second study, we estimate the effect of the adoption of telecommuting on travel behavior for full-time employed respondents with a fixed work location outside home, using data from the annual United Kingdom National Travel Surveys for the years 2009 to 2013. On average, telecommuters are observed to travel more than non-telecommuters. However, after accounting for the observed differences in traits and tastes between the two groups using a linear regression model, the differences fade to (nearly-) insignificant levels. Further control of self-selection bias arising from unmeasured differences in “relevant” characteristics leads to the conclusion that telecommuting has a substitution effect on both commute and non-work travel. Our results are broadly consistent with those of earlier studies, which, unlike our study, are based on purpose-built proprietary surveys explicitly designed to evaluate effects of either of the two programs. Although the data collected through those other means are still observational in nature, various biases identified in this dissertation may be addressed by questionnaire design, including retrospective reporting of travel behavior before and after enrollment in the program. By implicitly assuming that the unobserved influencers of both program adoption (either telecom-muting or carsharing as the case may be) as well as travel behavior do not change over the course of the evaluation (an assumption which may or may not be true), those prior studies estimate effect by measuring change in travel behavior before and after program enrollment relative to a control group. Unfortunately, such surveys are expensive, proprietary, and usually one-off studies.Large regional travel surveys, on the other hand, are publicly available, leading to the potential for replicability and involvement of multiple research teams. Further, these surveys collect information about broader travel behavior patterns and yield samples that are often larger and more representative of the general population. However, the cross-sectional and observational nature of these surveys creates the potential for joint occurrences of various biases identified in this study, which makes it necessary to adopt methodologies that correct and control for these biases when estimating causal effects. We hope that the methodological frameworks adopted in our study will provide an example that other researchers can use to analyze various programs in transportation using publicly available travel surveys, and that the causal inferences drawn will offer a sound basis for policymaking.

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand written by Feras El Zarwi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society's environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operations, and energy system improvements only - behavior change is needed. Behavior change does not occur instantaneously, but is rather a gradual process that requires years and even generations to yield the desired outcomes. That is why we need to nudge and guide trends of travel behavior over time in this era of transformative mobility. We should focus on influencing long-range trends of travel behavior to be more sustainable and multimodal via effective policies and investment strategies. Hence, there is a need for developing policy analysis tools that focus on modeling the evolution of trends of travel behavior in response to upcoming transportation services and technologies. Over time, travel choices, attitudes, and social norms will result in changes in lifestyles and travel behavior. That is why understanding dynamic changes of lifestyles and behavior in this era of transformative mobility is central to modeling and influencing trends of travel behavior. Modeling behavioral dynamics and trends is key to assessing how policies and investment strategies can transform cities to provide a higher level of connectivity, attain significant reductions in congestion levels, encourage multimodality, improve economic and environmental health, and ensure equity. This dissertation focuses on addressing limitations of activity-based travel demand models in capturing and predicting trends of travel behavior. Activity-based travel demand models are the commonly-used approach by metropolitan planning agencies to predict 20-30 year forecasts. These include traffic volumes, transit ridership, biking and walking market shares that are the result of large scale transportation investments and policy decisions. Currently, travel demand models are not equipped with a framework that predicts long-range trends in travel behavior for two main reasons. First, they do not entail a mechanism that projects membership and market share of new modes of transport into the future (Uber, autonomous vehicles, carsharing services, etc). Second, they lack a dynamic framework that could enable them to model and forecast changes in lifestyles and transport modality styles. Modeling the evolution and dynamic changes of behavior, modality styles and lifestyles in response to infrastructural and technological investments is key to understanding and predicting trends of travel behavior, car ownership levels, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and travel mode choice. Hence, we need to integrate a methodological framework into current travel demand models to better understand and predict the impact of upcoming transportation services and technologies, which will be prevalent in 20-30 years. The objectives of this dissertation are to model the dynamics of lifestyles and travel behavior through: " Developing a disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework that models and predicts long-range trends of travel behavior, and accounts for upcoming technological and infrastructural changes." Testing the proposed framework to assess its methodological flexibility and robustness." Empirically highlighting the value of the framework to transportation policy and practice. The proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework in this dissertation addresses two key limitations of existing travel demand models, and in particular: (1) dynamic, disaggregate models of technology and service adoption, and (2) models that capture how lifestyles, preferences and transport modality styles evolve dynamically over time. This dissertation brings together theories and techniques from econometrics (discrete choice analysis), machine learning (hidden Markov models), statistical learning (Expectation Maximization algorithm), and the technology diffusion literature (adoption styles). Throughout this dissertation we develop, estimate, apply and test the building blocks of the proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework. The two key developed components of the framework are defined below. First, a discrete choice framework for modeling and forecasting the adoption and diffusion of new transportation services. A disaggregate technology adoption model was developed since models of this type can: (1) be integrated with current activity-based travel demand models; and (2) account for the spatial/network effect of the new technology to understand and quantify how the size of the network, governed by the new technology, influences the adoption behavior. We build on the formulation of discrete mixture models and specifically dynamic latent class choice models, which were integrated with a network effect model. We employed a confirmatory approach to estimate our latent class choice model based on findings from the technology diffusion literature that focus on defining distinct types of adopters such as innovator/early adopters and imitators. Latent class choice models allow for heterogeneity in the utility of adoption for the various market segments i.e. innovators/early adopters, imitators and non-adopters. We make use of revealed preference (RP) time series data from a one-way carsharing system in a major city in the United States to estimate model parameters. The data entails a complete set of member enrollment for the carsharing service for a time period of 2.5 years after being launched. Consistent with the technology diffusion literature, our model identifies three latent classes whose utility of adoption have a well-defined set of preferences that are statistically significant and behaviorally consistent. The technology adoption model predicts the probability that a certain individual will adopt the service at a certain time period, and is explained by social influences, network effect, socio-demographics and level-of-service attributes. Finally, the model was calibrated and then used to forecast adoption of the carsharing system for potential investment strategy scenarios. A couple of takeaways from the adoption forecasts were: (1) highest expected increase in the monthly number of adopters arises by establishing a relationship with a major technology firm and placing a new station/pod for the carsharing system outside that technology firm; and (2) no significant difference in the expected number of monthly adopters for the downtown region will exist between having a station or on-street parking. The second component in the proposed framework entails modeling and forecasting the evolution of preferences, lifestyles and transport modality styles over time. Literature suggests that preferences, as denoted by taste parameters and consideration sets in the context of utility-maximizing behavior, may evolve over time in response to changes in demographic and situational variables, psychological, sociological and biological constructs, and available alternatives and their attributes. However, existing representations typically overlook the influence of past experiences on present preferences. This study develops, applies and tests a hidden Markov model with a discrete choice kernel to model and forecast the evolution of individual preferences and behaviors over long-range forecasting horizons. The hidden states denote different preferences, i.e. modes considered in the choice set and sensitivity to level-of-service attributes. The evolutionary path of those hidden states (preference states) is hypothesized to be a first-order Markov process such that an individual's preferences during a particular time period are dependent on their preferences during the previous time period. The framework is applied to study the evolution of travel mode preferences, or modality styles, over time, in response to a major change in the public transportation system. We use longitudinal travel diary from Santiago, Chile. The dataset consists of four one-week pseudo travel diaries collected before and after the introduction of Transantiago, which was a complete redesign of the public transportation system in the city. Our model identifies four modality styles in the population, labeled as follows: drivers, bus users, bus-metro users, and auto-metro users. The modality styles differ in terms of the travel modes that they consider and their sensitivity to level-of-service attributes (travel time, travel cost, etc.). At the population level, there are significant shifts in the distribution of individuals across modality styles before and after the change in the system, but the distribution is relatively stable in the periods after the change. In general, the proportion of drivers, auto-metro users, and bus-metro users has increased, and the proportion of bus users has decreased. At the individual level, habit formation is found to impact transition probabilities across all modality styles; individuals are more likely to stay in the same modality style over successive time periods than transition to a different modality style. Finally, a comparison between the proposed dynamic framework and comparable static frameworks reveals differences in aggregate forecasts for different policy scenarios, demonstrating the value of the proposed framework for both individual and population-level policy analysis. The aforementioned methodological frameworks comprise complex model formulation. This however comes at a cost in terms.

Download or read book Modeling and Modifying Day to day Travel Behaviors written by Yue Tang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing availability of individual-level longitudinal data provides the opportunity to better understand travelers'\ day-to-day learning process of their choice alternatives, which enables potentially more accurate predictions of choice patterns in a network with uncertainties. In this thesis, an instance-based learning (IBL) model for travel choice is developed within route-choice context, where on each day a traveler's decision depends on her entire choice history in the past. Learning in this model is based on the power law of forgetting and practice, which is shown to be capable of capturing various psychological effects embedded in travelers'\ day-to-day learning process, including the recency effect, hot stove effect and payoff variability effect. Estimation results based on empirical data show that the IBL model reveals higher sensitivity to perceived travel time and achieves better model fit compared to a baseline learning model. Cross-validation experiments suggest that the forecasting ability of the IBL model is consistently better than the baseline learning model. Despite the above-mentioned advantages of the IBL model, the common problem of missing initial observations in longitudinal data collection can lead to inconsistent estimates of perceived value of attributes in question, and thus inconsistent parameter estimates. In this thesis, the stated problem is addressed by treating the missing observations as latent variables. The proposed method is implemented in practice as maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) correction with two sampling methods in an instance-based learning model for travel choice, and the finite sample bias and efficiency of the estimators are investigated. Monte Carlo experimentation based on synthetic data shows that both the MSL with random sampling (MSLrs) and MSL with importance sampling (MSLis) are effective in correcting for the endogeneity problem in that the percent error and empirical coverage of the estimators are greatly improved after correction. The methods are applied to an experimental route-choice dataset to demonstrate their empirical application. Hausman-McFadden tests show that the estimators after correction are statistically equal to the estimators of the full dataset without missing observations, confirming that the proposed methods are practical and effective for addressing the stated problem. Apart from modeling travelers'\ day-to-day learning process for travel choice, day-to-day driving behavior intervention is also studied in this thesis. A study of Mitigation Techniques to Modify Driver Performance to Improve Fuel Economy, Reduce Emissions and Improve Safety was undertaken as part of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) Research Program. Major conclusions include: 1) Real-time feedback has a significant effect in reducing speeding and aggressive acceleration. 2) Training has a significant effect in reducing idling rate in the first month after training. 3) Combining training and feedback is expected to significantly improve fuel economy, reduce emissions and improve safety.

Download or read book International Encyclopedia of Transportation written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-05-13 with total page 4418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an increasingly globalised world, despite reductions in costs and time, transportation has become even more important as a facilitator of economic and human interaction; this is reflected in technical advances in transportation systems, increasing interest in how transportation interacts with society and the need to provide novel approaches to understanding its impacts. This has become particularly acute with the impact that Covid-19 has had on transportation across the world, at local, national and international levels. Encyclopedia of Transportation, Seven Volume Set - containing almost 600 articles - brings a cross-cutting and integrated approach to all aspects of transportation from a variety of interdisciplinary fields including engineering, operations research, economics, geography and sociology in order to understand the changes taking place. Emphasising the interaction between these different aspects of research, it offers new solutions to modern-day problems related to transportation. Each of its nine sections is based around familiar themes, but brings together the views of experts from different disciplinary perspectives. Each section is edited by a subject expert who has commissioned articles from a range of authors representing different disciplines, different parts of the world and different social perspectives. The nine sections are structured around the following themes: Transport Modes; Freight Transport and Logistics; Transport Safety and Security; Transport Economics; Traffic Management; Transport Modelling and Data Management; Transport Policy and Planning; Transport Psychology; Sustainability and Health Issues in Transportation. Some articles provide a technical introduction to a topic whilst others provide a bridge between topics or a more future-oriented view of new research areas or challenges. The end result is a reference work that offers researchers and practitioners new approaches, new ways of thinking and novel solutions to problems. All-encompassing and expertly authored, this outstanding reference work will be essential reading for all students and researchers interested in transportation and its global impact in what is a very uncertain world. Provides a forward looking and integrated approach to transportation Updated with future technological impacts, such as self-driving vehicles, cyber-physical systems and big data analytics Includes comprehensive coverage Presents a worldwide approach, including sets of comparative studies and applications

Download or read book Travel Behaviour Research in an Evolving World written by Ram M. Pendyala and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-01-20 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains select keynote and resource papers, as well as workshop reports, from the 12th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research that was organized by the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR) in Jaipur, India during December 13-18, 2009.

Download or read book Smart Cities and Innovative Urban Technologies written by Tommi Inkinen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade smart urban technologies have begun to blanket our cities, forming the backbone of a large intelligent infrastructure. Along with this development, dissemination of the smart cities ideology has had a significant imprint on urban planning and development. Smart Cities and Innovative Urban Technologies focuses on the concepts of smart cities and innovative urban technologies. It contains research that provides insight into spatial formations of information and communication technologies, and knowledge production practices from various perspectives—including analyses of public and private sectors together with NGOs and other stakeholders. It provides a state-of-the-art analysis from multidisciplinary point-of-view in urban studies. Contributions in this edited volume include theoretical developments as well as empirical analyses. This book will be of great use to various audiences including academics as well as practitioners, spatial developers, planners, and public administrators in order to increase understanding of the dynamics and factors effecting smart cities conceptual maturation and their physical emergence. Information generated in these chapters, particularly regarding the challenges and obstacles of smart cities and innovative urban technologies, are intended to be of benefit to the key local actors in making decision in their cities or/and peripheral locations. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Urban Technology.

Download or read book Transportation Research Record written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Proceedings of the 2nd International Academic Conference on Blockchain Information Technology and Smart Finance ICBIS 2023 written by Jerome Yen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-07-25 with total page 1595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book.With the rapid development of modern economy and Internet technology, the traditional financial industry has to develop Internet finance to provide better services and meet the needs of the times. It is against this background that the blockchain, relying on its special advantages (collective maintenance, reliable databases, and decentralization), provides the reliability to solve the credit risk of Internet finance, has an impact on institutions, trust mechanisms, risk control, etc. in the Internet finance industry, and has derived more new application scenarios, thus paving the way for the development of finance in the Internet era. Applying blockchain technology to the financial field can promote data information sharing, improve value transmission efficiency, and enhance database security. The financial market based on the decentralized system of blockchain technology can reduce the operating costs of financial institutions, improve economic efficiency, and solve problems such as information asymmetry. The new financial business model of "blockchain+finance" is conducive to improving the Internet credit reporting system, preventing and controlling Internet financial risks, and further realizing "financial disintermediation". At present, in China's financial field, blockchain technology has been applied and innovated in supply chain finance, cross-border payment, trade finance, asset securitization and other scenarios. To promote the exchange and development of blockchain, information technology and financial experts and scholars. The 2nd International Academic Conference on Blockchain, Information Technology and Smart Finance (ICBIS 2023) will be held in Hangzhou from February 17 to 19, 2023. This conference mainly focuses on the latest research on "blockchain, information technology and smart finance". This conference brings together experts, scholars, researchers and relevant practitioners in this field from all over the world to share research results, discuss hot issues, and provide participants with cutting-edge scientific and technological information, so that you can timely understand the development trends of the industry and master the latest technologies, broaden research horizons and promote academic progress.

Download or read book Urban Informatics written by Wenzhong Shi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity.

Download or read book The Evolving Impact of ICT on Activities and Travel Behaviour written by Eran Ben-Elia and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-09-02 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Evolving Impacts of ICT on Activities and Travel Behavior, Volume Three in the Advances in Transport Policy and Planning series, assesses both successful and unsuccessful practices and policies from around the world on the topic. This new volume highlights ICT as a Resilient Travel Behavior Alternative; The Past, Present and Future of Travel Time Use; The Intersection of Transportation and Telecommunications in Demand Forecasting and Traffic Management; International Journey Planning System to Welcoming MaaS; An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Mobile Internet Usage and Activity-Travel Behavior; Travel Time Perception and Time Use in an Era of Automated Driving, and more. Provides the authority and expertise of leading contributors from an international board of authors Presents the latest release in the Advances in Transport Policy and Planning series Updated release includes the latest information on the evolving impact of ICT on activities and travel behavior

Download or read book Travel Patterns and Behavior written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Travel by Design written by Marlon G. Boarnet and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2001-03-08 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can transportation problems be fixed by the right neighborhood design? The tremendous popularity of the "new urbanism" and "livable communities" initiatives suggests that many persons think so. As a systematic assessment of attempts to solve transportation problems through urban design, this book asks and answers three questions: Can such efforts work? Will they be put into practice? Are they a good idea?

Download or read book Policy Evaluation with Travel Behavior Models written by Charles River Associates and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Publications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology Catalog written by National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 1162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Synthesis of Freight Research in Urban Transportation Planning written by Genevieve Giuliano and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TRB's National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) Report 23: Synthesis of Freight Research in Urban Transportation Planning explores policies and practices for managing freight activity in metropolitan areas. The primary focus of the report is on "last-mile/first-mile" strategies, but it also addresses strategies affecting environmental issues and trading hubs or nodes. The research used to develop the report looked beyond the United States--mostly, but not exclusively' in Europe and the European BESTUFS (Best Urban Freight Solutions) program--for potentially relevant policies and practices that could be used in the United States"--Publication info.

Download or read book Part 1 written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Urban Transportation Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: