Download or read book Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances written by Claude Giorno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-13 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.

Download or read book Estimating potential output output gaps and structural balances written by Claude; Richardson Giorno (Pete; Roseveare, Deborah) and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Structural Budget Balance The IMF s Methodology written by Mr.Robert P. Hagemann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the methodology used by the IMF staff to calculate the structural budget balance, estimates of which are published regularly in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The structural budget balance is the government’s actual fiscal position purged of the estimated budgetary consequences of the business cycle, and is designed in part to provide an indication of the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy. Interpretation of the structural budget balance requires caution in several respects, however, some of which are reviewed in the paper. The paper then considers briefly the potential usefulness of the structural budget balance as a tool for enforcement--under the Stability and Growth Pact--of the European Economic and Monetary Union reference value on the deficit specified in the Maastricht Treaty.

Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.

Download or read book Measuring Output Gap Is It Worth Your Time written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.

Download or read book Steady as She Goes Estimating Potential Output During Financial Booms and Busts written by Mr.Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial “boom and bust” periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers.

Download or read book Indicators of Structural Budget Balances written by Banca d'Italia. Servizio studi and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating Potential Output written by Paul Conway and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.

Download or read book Working Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.

Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.

Download or read book Estimating Poland s Potential Output written by Natan P. Epstein and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.