Download or read book Estimating Potential Output in Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Download or read book The Chilean Output Gap written by Leandro Medina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.
Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Jorge Roldos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Download or read book Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries written by Jorge E. Roldos and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Download or read book Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy written by Gabriela Contreras M. and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Chile written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-09-10 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the sources of growth in Chile and compares Chile’s experience with that of other countries. Two alternative measures of the sources of growth for Chile are presented to facilitate comparisons with other studies. The first measure adjusts factor inputs for the degree of utilization (using the unemployment rate), and the second measure introduces an index of the quality of factor inputs. The paper presents estimates of potential output of Chile for 1971–95, and also discusses the projections of potential output growth for Chile over the medium term.
Download or read book Estimating the Output GAP for Chile written by J. Rodrigo Fuentes and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output for the U S Economy in a Model Framework written by Albert J. Eckstein and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Chile written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2001-07-30 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents four studies on selected issues of the Chilean economy. The new framework for fiscal policy represented by the authorities' target of a central government structural surplus of 1 percent of GDP is also discussed. This study examines whether the variance of the cyclical component of output in Chile and 11 other countries increased during the 1990s, a period during which the variance of inflation declined. The alternative measures of potential output for Chile are also estimated.
Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Download or read book Potential Output in Latin America written by André A. Hofman and published by Santiago, Chile : CEPAL, Statistics and Economic Projections Division. This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimates are becoming increasingly important in policy design in Latin America (ECLAC, 2002) and the objective of this paper is to make a methodological contribution to this field of work. For a proper evaluation of the macroeconomic situation in a certain point in time it is important to have an idea of the level of potential output. For monetary policy decisions it is important to know what the level of potential output is compared to the effective output. In an era in which inflation targeting has become widespread in Latin America it has become increasingly important to estimate potential output. In projections of economic growth the output gap can be a very important input.
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output written by Paul Conway and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances written by Claude Giorno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap Is It Worth Your Time written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Download or read book Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa written by Nir Klein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-25 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985-2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that, while potential output growth steadily accelerated in the post-apartheid era to about 3 1/2 percent (1994-2008), it has decelerated considerably following the outbreak of the financial crisis, as was observed in other advanced and emerging economies. While this indicates that, at around -1 1/ 2 percent, the estimated 2010 output gap was lower than previously thought, there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding its "true" magnitude, reflecting in part the backward looking nature of the estimation methods. The paper concludes that the potential growth is likely to gradually revert to its precrisis pace and the output gap to have closed by early 2012.
