Download or read book Essays on Uncertainty Analysis in Energy Modeling written by John Erik Bistline and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The characterization and analysis of uncertainty are central components of decision-making, especially in the energy sector; however, there is currently a gap in the energy modeling community between the recognition of uncertainty's importance and its incorporation in large-scale models. This dissertation explores how the explicit inclusion of uncertainty through sequential decision-making approaches like stochastic programming can provide insights to energy planners in different domains. The dissertation first investigates the dynamics of capacity planning and dispatch in the electric power sector under technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties. Metrics like the expected value of perfect information and the value of the stochastic solution quantify the benefits of reducing uncertainty and of incorporating uncertainty explicitly in modeling efforts. Model results highlight risks associated with shale gas and climate policy, offer policy guidance in these areas, and indicate that planners are likely underestimating the impacts of uncertainty. Hedging and strategic delay are explained in terms of the optionality of energy investments, leading to insights about uncertainty, learning, and irreversibility. A second application presents a framework for allocating investments across a portfolio of energy technology research and development (R & D) programs, which incorporates uncertainties in the effectiveness of investments and in diffusion markets. This work analyzes how R & D valuations vary in different decision-making settings and shows how wait-and-see valuation approaches, by not explicitly accounting for exogenous market uncertainties, may undervalue the hedging potential of technologies. The results indicate that R & D is more valuable in suboptimal planning and policy environments. The final section discusses policy and modeling questions about low-probability, high-impact risks in climate change economics. This analysis examines the impacts of fat-tailed uncertainty about the climate sensitivity parameter on near-term abatement using a sequential decision-making framework. The results demonstrate how policy prescriptions from integrated assessment models are highly sensitive to the specifications of uncertainty, learning, and damages. Fat tails alone do not merit stringent mitigation immediately, which also requires strongly convex damages and slow learning. The analysis illustrates the potential value of midcourse corrections on reducing consumption risks imposed by uncertain damages and focuses attention on the dynamics of learning.
Download or read book Energy Modelling and the Management of Uncertainty written by Risk Books Staff and published by Risk Books. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text contains a detailed analysis of the most difficult problems in pricing electricity, including: price modelling, derivative valuation, feedstock correlations, and weather risk. The book also relates key modelling difficulties to practical strategies for risk management.
Download or read book Energy Modeling for an Uncertain Future written by National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-29 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application areas of uncertainty are numerous and diverse, including all fields of engineering, computer science, systems control and finance. Determining appropriate ways and methods of dealing with uncertainty has been a constant challenge. The theme for this book is better understanding and the application of uncertainty theories. This book, with invited chapters, deals with the uncertainty phenomena in diverse fields. The book is an outgrowth of the Fourth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), which was held at the center of Adult Education, College Park, Maryland, in September 2003. All of the chapters have been carefully edited, following a review process in which the editorial committee scrutinized each chapter. The contents of the book are reported in twenty-three chapters, covering more than . . ... pages. This book is divided into six main sections. Part I (Chapters 1-4) presents the philosophical and theoretical foundation of uncertainty, new computational directions in neural networks, and some theoretical foundation of fuzzy systems. Part I1 (Chapters 5-8) reports on biomedical and chemical engineering applications. The sections looks at noise reduction techniques using hidden Markov models, evaluation of biomedical signals using neural networks, and changes in medical image detection using Markov Random Field and Mean Field theory. One of the chapters reports on optimization in chemical engineering processes.
Download or read book The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results written by Eduard Hofer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling written by Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk written by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis and Probabilistic Modelling written by Canada. Atomic Energy Control Board and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1994 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.
Download or read book MATHEMATICAL MODELS Volume II written by Jerzy A. Filar and published by EOLSS Publications. This book was released on 2009-09-19 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical Models is a component of Encyclopedia of Mathematical Sciences in the global Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), which is an integrated compendium of twenty one Encyclopedias. The Theme on Mathematical Models discusses matters of great relevance to our world such as: Basic Principles of Mathematical Modeling; Mathematical Models in Water Sciences; Mathematical Models in Energy Sciences; Mathematical Models of Climate and Global Change; Infiltration and Ponding; Mathematical Models of Biology; Mathematical Models in Medicine and Public Health; Mathematical Models of Society and Development. These three volumes are aimed at the following five major target audiences: University and College students Educators, Professional practitioners, Research personnel and Policy analysts, managers, and decision makers and NGOs.
Download or read book Energy Modeling 3 written by Institute of Gas Technology and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy Research Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Energy Economics Advanced Modeling Approaches and Policy Analysis written by Lin Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis Guide electronic Resource written by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and published by Chalk River, Ont. : Atomic Energy of Canada Limited. This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results written by Eduard Hofer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-01 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Download or read book Fossil Energy Update written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 780 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
