Download or read book Essays on Stock Liquidity and Stock Return Predictability written by Gregory William Eaton and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine the effects of stock liquidity on asset values and whether aggregate stock liquidity and other forecasting instruments predict stock market returns. In the first chapter, I use tick-size reductions in equity markets as sources of exogenous variation in liquidity to examine the causal effect of transaction costs on firm value. In contrast to the prevailing view, I find that increased liquidity has a marginal or, in some cases, negative impact on firm value. The second chapter evaluates the predictive content of aggregate liquidity for economic activity and stock returns. We decompose illiquidity into a component capturing aggregate volatility and a volatility-adjusted component and find strong evidence that the component of illiquidity uncorrelated with volatility forecasts stock market returns. The third chapter provides new evidence on the stock return forecasting performance of alternative corporate payout yields. We find that the net payout yield forecasts stock returns and generally outperforms the commonly used dividend yield. Additionally, we show that the choice of cash flow used to construct the payout yield is economically significant. An agent relying on the incorrect payout measure as a forecasting instrument is willing to pay an economically significant amount to switch to the optimal policy.

Download or read book Three Essays on Predictability and Seasonality in the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Vincent Jean Bogousslavsky and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mots-clés de l'auteur: Return Predictability ; Return Seasonality ; Asset Pricing Anomalies ; Intraday Returns ; Liquidity ; Infrequent Rebalancing.

Download or read book Essays on Liquidity and Stock Returns written by Sai-Pang Chan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on the Predictability of Stock Returns written by Amit Goyal and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Two Essays on the Cross section of Stock Returns written by Peter Wong and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies two distinct topics. First, I examine whether the idiosyncratic volatility discount anomaly documented by Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006, 2009) is related to earnings shocks, and I find that a substantial portion of the idiosyncratic volatility discount can be explained by earnings momentum and post-formation earnings shocks. When these two effects are accounted for, idiosyncratic volatility has little, if any, return predictability. Second, I propose a parsimonious measure to characterize the severity of the microstructure noise at the individual stock level and assess the impact of this microstructure induced illiquidity on cross-sectional return predictability. One of the main advantages of this measure is that it is very simple to construct (requires only daily stock returns data). Using this measure I find that firms with the largest microstructure bias command a return premium as large as 9.61% per year, even after controlling for the premiums associated with size, book-to-market, momentum, and traditional liquidity price impact and cost measures. In addition, the bias premium is strongest among small, low price, volatile, and illiquid stocks. On the other hand, the premiums associated with size, illiquidity, and return reversal are most pronounced among stocks with the largest bias.

Download or read book Two Essays on Stock Liquidity written by Shuming Liu (doctor of finance.) and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two empirical essays on investor behavior and liquidity variation. The results demonstrate the important role of investors in affecting liquidity. The first essay examines how the fluctuation in the aggregate stock market liquidity is related to investor sentiment. I find that the stock market is more liquid when investor sentiment is higher. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical prediction that higher investor sentiment increases stock market liquidity. The second essay investigates whether the cross-sectional differences in liquidity are affected by institutional ownership. I document that stocks with larger increases in the number of institutional investors are more liquid than other stocks. This result is consistent with the prediction that information competition among institutional investors increases stock liquidity.

Download or read book Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Fei Fang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on empirical asset pricing, including stock and options pricing. In the first and third chapter, we examine the linkage between stock market and options market at firm level. In Chapter Two, we documents the impact that systematic variance risk has for option prices of individual stocks. In the first chapter, we study the relation between future stock returns and option-based measures. We find that the options-based measure - future stock return relation is strongest for relatively less liquid stocks. After taking transaction costs into consideration, the risk-adjusted returns of the long-short stock portfolios do not differ significantly between stock liquidity groups. This chapter provides better understanding on the options-based stock return predictability. In the second chapter, we construct novel factors to mimic variance risk related to firm characteristics using individual stocks' variance risk premium. We then document that market variance risk premium and variance risk mimicking factors have strong explanatory power for option prices. Our new analytic framework links the variance risk factors related to firm characteristics to the individual equity option price structure. In the third chapter, we provide additional empirical results on how stock price can affect option prices. Our preliminary results reveal a link between the informational inefficiency of stock price and option prices. We find that a greater departure from random walk leads to a lower level of implied volatility (compared to realized volatility) and a steeper implied volatility curve.

Download or read book Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Market Efficiency written by Lei Jiang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Stock Liquidity and Stock Return written by Thị Thu Hương Lê and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Global Stock Markets written by Mengmeng Dong (Professor of finance) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation consists of three sole-authored essays that study global stock returns. The first one “Global Anomalies” estimates the aggregated return predictability of 117 U.S. anomalies across 40 countries. These anomaly variables generate substantial return predictability when they are aggregated within the same category as defined in Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) using composite measures. Combining all six categories of anomaly variables into one single composite measure, a global hedge portfolio generates an average equal (value)-weighted monthly return of 2.15% (1.20%) with a t-statistic of 9.22 (4.66). These results highlight the importance of using composite measures to summarize the information contained in individual anomaly variables. My dissertation consists of three sole-authored essays that study global stock returns. The first one “Global Anomalies” estimates the aggregated return predictability of 117 U.S. anomalies across 40 countries. These anomaly variables generate substantial return predictability when they are aggregated within the same category as defined in Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) using composite measures. Combining all six categories of anomaly variables into one single composite measure, a global hedge portfolio generates an average equal (value)-weighted monthly return of 2.15% (1.20%) with a t-statistic of 9.22 (4.66). These results highlight the importance of using composite measures to summarize the information contained in individual anomaly variables. In the third chapter “The Impact of Price Limits on Stock Volatility and Price Delay: Evidence from China”, I focus on the Chinese stock market and study how market interventions affect price behaviors. To overcome challenge in identification, I first match firms by characteristics and use difference-in-difference methodology to establish causality. Exploring a Special Treatment policy in China, I show that 5-basis-point tightening in daily price limits (from ±10% to ±5%) significantly reduces annualized volatility by 6.5 basis points (t =5.00) yet increases price delay by 63% from the previous year (t =7.40). Trading activity and liquidity significantly decrease under new limits but return increases by an equal-weighted average of 27% (t = 3.22) in 12 months. Evidence suggests that in the long-run price limits are effective in reducing volatility and improving firm value yet causing delayed price discovery and lower liquidity.

Download or read book Three Essays on Stock Market Volatility and Stock Return Predictability written by Shu Yan and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Portfolio Allocation written by Bradley Steele Paye and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Stock Market Volatility written by Chengbo Fu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on stock market volatility. In the first essay, we show that investors will have the information in the idiosyncratic volatility spread when using two different models to estimate idiosyncratic volatility. In a theoretical framework, we show that idiosyncratic volatility spread is related to the change in beta and the new betas from the extra factors between two different factor models. Empirically, we find that idiosyncratic volatility spread predicts the cross section of stock returns. The negative spread-return relation is independent from the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. The result is driven by the change in beta component and the new beta component of the spread. The spread-relation is also robust when investors estimate the spread using a conditional model or EGARCH method. In the second essay, the variance of stock returns is decomposed based on a conditional Fama-French three-factor model instead of its unconditional counterpart. Using time-varying alpha and betas in this model, it is evident that four additional risk terms must be considered. They include the variance of alpha, the variance of the interaction between the time-varying component of beta and factors, and two covariance terms. These additional risk terms are components that are included in the idiosyncratic risk estimate using an unconditional model. By investigating the relation between the risk terms and stock returns, we find that only the variance of the time-varying alpha is negatively associated with stock returns. Further tests show that stock returns are not affected by the variance of time-varying beta. These results are consistent with the findings in the literature identifying return predictability from time-varying alpha rather than betas. In the third essay, we employ a two-step estimation method to separate the upside and downside idiosyncratic volatility and examine its relation with future stock returns. We find that idiosyncratic volatility is negatively related to stock returns when the market is up and when it is down. The upside idiosyncratic volatility is not related to stock returns. Our results also suggest that the relation between downside idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns is negative and significant. It is the downside idiosyncratic volatility that drives the inverse relation between total idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. The results are consistent with the literature that investor overreact to bad news and underreact to good news.

Download or read book Essays on the Predictability and Volatility of Returns in the Stock Market written by Ruojun Wu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the effect of parameter uncertainty on the return predictability and volatility of the stock market. The first two chapters focus on the decomposition of market volatility, and the third chapter studies the return predictability. When facing imperfect information, the investors tend to form a learning scheme that encompasses both historical data and prior beliefs. In the variance decomposition framework, the introducing of learning directly impacts the way that return forecasts are revised and consequently the relative component of market volatility based on these forecasts, namely the price movements from revision on future discount rates and those from future cash flows. According to the empirical study in Chapter 1, the former is not necessarily the major driving force of market volatility, which provides an alternative view on what moves stock prices. Learning is modeled and estimated by Bayesian method. Chapter 2 follows the topic in Chapter 1 and studies the role of persistent state variables in return decomposition in order to provide more robust inference on variance decomposition. In Chapter 3 we propose to utilize theoretical constraints to help predict market returns when in sample data is very noisy and creates model uncertainty for the investors. The constraints are also incorporated by Bayesian method. We show in the out-of-sample forecast experiment that models with theoretical constraints produce better forecasts.

Download or read book Essays on Liquidity of U S Common Stocks written by Shalini Nageswaran and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Chapter 1, I find that stock characteristics do predict a stock's time-varying liquidity beta, i.e. its sensitivity to market, with the effect varying according to the assumed holding period using data on 30 small, medium, and large cap stocks between 1997 and 2002. I also find that liquidity is a priced factor for stock return even after controlling for market and stock measures of risk such as estimates of market volatility and stock level volatility. In order to mitigate problems arising from a small panel, I also test the returns model with ARCH errors on a larger sample of 2000 stocks. Chapter 2 accounts for endogenous liquidity in a standard asset pricing model. Loss of liquidity, especially during times of crises, needs to be incorporated into models of financial assets so as to forecast returns correctly. To identify the effect of endogenous stock liquidity on stock returns, an instrument is constructed from the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ's decimalization program, which shrunk tick sizes from one-sixteenth of a dollar to one-hundredth of a dollar. Decimalization led to an increase in liquidity by allowing for narrower bid-ask spreads. Using daily price and quote data on U.S. common stocks, I find that as stocks becomes more illiquid, their future expected returns increase. In Chapter 3, I propose two related measures for algorithmic trading constructed from the Disclosure of Order Execution Statistics data in order to study the effect of algorithmic trading on stock liquidity. The first is the average time taken to fill an order once it arrives in the market, known as fill time, and the second is the proportion of orders executed within ten seconds of order arrival at the NYSE. Since the decision to use algorithms in trading is an endogenous one, I use the NYSE's introduction of autoquotes in 2003 to identify the causal effect of algorithmic trading on a stock's liquidity. Using IV estimation, I find that a one second decrease in fill time narrows spreads by two basis points.

Download or read book Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds written by Ekaterina Serikova and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contains three papers. Each paper addresses a distinct research question and is implemented on a separate dataset. The first paper concludes that daytime auctions, together with market opening and closing intervals, contribute to the periodicity of the cross-section of stock returns. By applying the model of infrequent rebalancing, I show that model parameters fit the data for the after-auction intervals. I thus conclude that after-auction periods take over a large share of infrequent rebalancing and show that this effect is driven by the concentration of liquidity traders. Small, low-fragmented stocks heavily traded on the home market show the strongest evidence for infrequent rebalancing after the daytime auctions. The second paper sheds light on how traders allocate risk of stock portfolios in a trading day. Traders decrease risk before the market close. They do so by selling stocks with the highest marginal risk and buying stocks that decrease the risk of their portfolio the most. As our measure of portfolio risk relates to the one that clearing houses use for the margin requirements, we conclude that the risk-reduction behavior is driven by traders' reluctance to provide end-of-day margin contributions to the CCP. These trading flows in the direction of risk contraction distort closing stock prices. The third paper replicates and combines eight prominent predictors of mutual fund returns to obtain a composite, aggregate fund predictor. While only three of the eight individual variables are significant predictors of future fund performance in a multivariate setting, the composite predictor has strong forecasting power. A hypothetical quintilebased long-short strategy based on the composite predictor realizes a four-factor alpha of 6% per year. The performance spread is robust to different regression specifications, is similar for different size classes and investment styles, and persists over time. Our results p.

Download or read book Essays in Predictability of Stock Returns in International Markets written by Dong Hong and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: