Download or read book Essays on Information in Options Markets written by Mr. Travis Lake Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, my coauthor and I examine the information content of option and equity volumes when trade direction is unobserved. In a multimarket asymmetric information model, equity short-sale costs result in a negative relation between relative option volume and future firm value. In our empirical tests, firms in the lowest decile of the option to stock volume ratio (O/S) outperform the highest decile by 0.34% per week (19.3% annualized). Our model and empirics both indicate that O/S is a stronger signal when short-sale costs are high or option leverage is low. O/S also predicts future firm-specific earnings news, consistent with O/S reflecting private information. In the second chapter, I show that in many asset pricing models, the equity market's expected return is a time-invariant linear function of its conditional variance, which can be estimated from options markets. However, I show that when the relation between conditional means and variances is state-dependent, an observer requires the combined information in multiple variance horizons to distinguish among the states and thereby reveal the equity risk premium. Empirically, I show that while the VIX by itself has little predictive power for future S & P 500 returns, the VIX term structure predicts next-quarter S & P 500 returns with a 5.2% adjusted R-squared.

Download or read book Essays on Option Market Information Content Market Segmentation and Fear written by Mishuk Anwar Chowdhury and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay tests whether stock returns can be predicted using divergence from put-call parity. Using a robust methodology that controls for the early exercise premium of American put and call options, the study shows that stocks with upside divergence from put-call parity outperform stocks with downside divergence from put-call parity. Predictability is persistent over multiple holding periods and divergence is also predictive of tail events. The second essay examines segmentation of equity and option markets in the presence of information asymmetry. The study uses the slope of the implied volatility skew as a proxy for negative jump risk, option implied stock price as a measure of deviation from put-call parity, and the daily short-sell volume ratio as a measure of negative information flow in the equity market. The option market based signals predict future returns more reliably than the short-sell based signals. Short-sellers only profit when their convictions line-up with negative signals in the option market. The third essay introduces a measure of fear derived from the implied volatility smile. The study examines the relationship between fear and the cross section of option returns. The results show that put options written on stocks with high fear premium outperform put options written on stocks with low fear premium. Fear does not predict the realization of a tail event. This finding confirms the irrational nature of fear.

Download or read book Three Essays in Financial Markets The Bright Side of Financial Derivatives Options Trading and Firm Innovation written by Iván Blanco and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do financial derivatives enhance or impede innovation? We aim to answer this question by examining the relationship between equity options markets and standard measures of firm innovation. Our baseline results show that firms with more options trading activity generate more patents and patent citations per dollar of R&D invested. We then investigate how more active options markets affect firms' innovation strategy. Our results suggest that firms with greater trading activity pursue a more creative, diverse and risky innovation strategy. We discuss potential underlying mechanisms and show that options appear to mitigate managerial career concerns that would induce managers to take actions that boost short-term performance measures. Finally, using several econometric specifications that try to account for the potential endogeneity of options trading, we argue that the positive effect of options trading on firm innovation is causal.

Download or read book Essays on Single Stock Futures and Options Markets written by Cuyler Lawrence Strong and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two essays demonstrate the important role that derivative markets play in assimilating information into financial markets. In the first essay I use the 2008 short-selling ban to examine the impact of single-stock futures (SSFs) trading on options market quality. I show that there is a substitution effect between options trading and SSFs trading during the ban period. In addition, my results show that SSFs trading had a significant effect in narrowing the bid-ask spreads of options contracts. Moreover, compared to stocks without SSFs, stocks with SSFs were less likely to violate put-call parity during the ban period. My results suggest that SSFs trading helps mitigate the negative effect of the short-selling ban on options market quality documented in the literature.In the second essay I look at information flows through large option trades. The motivation comes from CNBC's "Halftime Report" which regularly covers unusual option activity, i.e., those abnormally large trades, and recommend investors to follow the "smart money". I investigate the impact of the CNBC coverage on underlying stock prices and whether investors can indeed profit by following the "smart money". I document an immediate spike in trading volume and abnormal returns at the time of the CNBC coverage, and evidence that the unusual option trades are informative of stock prices around the coverage. However, I also document a significant reversal in underlying stock prices following the CNBC coverage. Using the same criteria advocated by the CNBC commentators, I identify unusual option activities for a large sample of stocks without CNBC coverage. I confirm that the unusual option trades significantly predict underlying stock returns, but find no evidence of reversal in underlying stock prices. My findings suggest that the CNBC coverage of unusual option activity has a destabilizing effect on underlying stock prices and investors cannot profit by simply following the CNBC reporting on the "smart money".

Download or read book Three Essays on the Information Content of Stock Options written by Zekun Wu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that explore the information content embedded in equity options. The results improve our understanding of the cross-section of option returns, informed trading in the options market, and the industry effect of IPOs. In the first essay, we study the relation between option-implied skewness (IS) and the crosssection of option returns under daily hedging to better understand skewness pricing in isolation from lower moments. Creating portfolios of delta-hedged (D-hedged) and delta-vega-hedged (DV-hedged) options with daily rebalancing, we find that IS is negatively (positively) related to call (put) option returns, but the relation to put options is statistically significant only during economic recessions. The relation is more substantial when the underlying stock has a larger market beta and when the firm has more severe information opacity. Our results suggest that investors' skewness preference grows stronger with greater market risk and lower information quality. In the second essay, we examined the informed trading in the options market before FDA drug advisory committee meetings. We find significant abnormal options trading volume before both meeting dates and report creation dates, particularly for small drug firms. Abnormal volume significantly predicts post-meeting stock returns. Informed traders prefer out-of-the-money options and choose maturities to cover the dates when reports are publicly released. They prefer to sell options close to the meeting date, perhaps to capture returns from both expected stock price changes and the sharp drop in implied volatility post-meeting. In the third essay, I investigate the effect of initial public offerings (IPOs) on industry competitors' options market. I find that rival firms' put (call) options volume increases (decreases) around IPOs, leading to price pressure on call options relative to put options as measured by the implied volatility spread. Rival firms' reaction in the options market also predicts the IPO firms' post-IPO stock performance. Lastly, rival firms with strong operating income experience less negative impact in the options market, suggesting competitive operation performance help stabilize rival firms' options market around IPOs.

Download or read book Essays on the Information Flow from Option Markets to Stock Markets written by Yigit Atilgan and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Interaction of Option and Equity Markets written by Alexander Feser and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do option and equity markets interact with each other? This is the central question that is answered from three different angles in this dissertation. The first Chapter discusses how option-implied information is incorporated into equity markets. Based on a novel rescaled option-implied Value-at-Risk (rVaR) measure, it is shown that option-implied information is priced differently depending on whether it is based on options with strikes close to the current price of the underlying or far-out-of-the-money options. The findings provide novel insights in the joint interaction between option and equity markets and help to explain contradictory results in previous studies. The second chapter provides an in-depth analysis of how to estimate risk-neutral moments robustly. A simulation and an empirical study show that estimating risk-neutral moments presents a trade-off between (1) the bias of estimates caused by a limited strike price domain and (2) the variance of estimates induced by micro-structural noise. The best trade-off is offered by option-implied quantile moments estimated from a volatility surface interpolated with a local-linear kernel regression and extrapolated linearly. The third chapter expands volatility targeting to option strategies. The chapter shows that option trading strategies can be managed by increasing exposure if volatility is low and reducing exposure if volatility is high to achieve a constant risk exposure over time. These volatility controlled option strategies generate economically and statistically significant alphas over their unmanaged counterparts, have reduced maximum drawdowns, lower downside risk, and more normal return distributions.

Download or read book Essays on Options Markets written by David J. Hait and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Inference from Option Markets written by Asad Dossani and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters that analyze the economic information contained in option markets. Option markets are forward looking, and thus contain valuable insight into the beliefs of financial market participants. They can be used to study risk premia and to make forecasts. The Chapter 1, Central Bank Tone and Currency Risk Premia, asks how the tone of central bank press conferences impacts risk premia in the currency market. First, I find that option implied risk aversion increases when central banks are hawkish, and decreases when central banks are dovish. Second, I find that hawkish central bank tone predicts higher future variance risk premia, and vice versa. One explanation for this result is that the tone of a press conference indicates to investors the likelihood of central bank intervention, conditional on the state of the economy. Chapter 2, Monetary Stimulus and Perception of Risk, investigates the relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in financial markets, and how this varies across asset classes. First, I document a positive relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in equity, commodity, and currency markets. I document a negative relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in bond markets. Second, I establish a cointegrating relationship between monetary stimulus and implied volatility, indicating a positive long run equilibrium relationship in the levels of monetary stimulus and implied volatility. This relationship is present across asset classes. Third, I document the link between monetary stimulus and expected inflation, a possible mechanism by which monetary stimulus affects the perception of risk across financial markets. Chapter 3, Option Augmented Density Forecasts of Market Return with Monotone Pricing Kernel, considers consider an option augmented density forecast of the market return obtained by transforming a baseline density forecast estimated from past excess returns so as to monotonize its ratio with a risk neutral density estimated from current option prices. We find that monotonizing the pricing kernel leads to a modest improvement in the calibration of density forecasts.

Download or read book Three Essays on the Microstructure of Financial Options Markets written by Angelo Aspris and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Microstructure of Options Markets written by Subrahmanya Pulle Srinivas and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing Using Information from Option Markets written by Konstantinos Gkionis and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on the Econometrics of Options Markets written by Zdravetz N. Lazarov and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Stock Options written by Iskra Kalodera and published by Tectum - Der Wissenschaftsverlag. This book was released on 2011-07 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses exclusively on stock options, analyzing their pricing, liquidity, and information transmission empirically. With the help of discrete choice modeling and regression analysis, it offers new insights into the behavior of stock option liquidity as well as the influence of overall market liquidity on option prices. Many observed phenomena find explanation through the market microstructure. The book also provides the most comprehensive analysis of equity options for the German market so far and serves as a guide to up-to-date empirical topics for both researchers and practitioners.

Download or read book Essays on the Effects of FOMC Announcement written by Guanzhong Pan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two essays. Essay 1 proposes a rational expectations equilibrium model for pre-scheduled economic announcements to examine the effect of information uncertainty and liquidity trading on the pre-announcement premium. The model predicts that pre-announcement premium is positively related to information uncertainty of the upcoming announcements. Liquidity traders withdraw their trading when the information uncertainty is high, which leads informed investors to trade less aggressively. As a result, the price is less informative, which elevates pre-announcement premium. We use Volatility Index (VIX) as a proxy of information uncertainty and show that empirical results are mostly consistent with model predictions. Essay 2 investigates options trading activity prior to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We find informed traders use option to speculate on their private information. Specifically, abnormal trading volume of call option on S&P500 index three to two trading days prior to the FOMC announcement positively predicts post-announcement index return, and this predictability mainly comes from near-the-money call option and from buyer-initiated call option trading when we further breakdown trading volume based on the direction of trade. We find no evidence of investors using options to hedge post-FOMC announcement market risk.

Download or read book Essays on Volatility and Risk in Financial Markets written by Kwanho Kim and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Trading Efficiency on Options Market written by Yan Feng and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: F. Black (1975) in his seminal paper "Fact and Fantasy in the use of options" mentioned a number of fantasies that widely spread in the options markets. Since Black's (1975) paper was published, there were significant changes and innovations in the options markets. The purpose of this paper is to address some of the pricing and trading aspects in the options markets.