Download or read book Essays on foreign capital flows credit cycles and economic development written by François D'Assises Babou Bationo and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cette thèse est composée de trois articles qui traitent de problématiques en relation avec l'intégration financière en finance internationale. Le premier chapitre intitulé Private capital flows and productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa : Does the capital allocation puzzle matter?, examine la problématique des flux de capitaux et leur contribution à la productivité et à la croissance économique. Nous investiguons si l'allocation des flux de capitaux privés étrangers à travers des secteurs économiques hétérogènes permet d'expliquer l'énigme d'allocation des flux de capitaux en finance internationale. Nous trouvons que les effets des flux des capitaux privés étrangers sur la productivité et la croissance économique dépendent du secteur économique destinataire de ces flux et que l'énigme d'allocation des flux de capitaux en finance internationale est une énigme sectorielle des flux de capitaux. Le deuxième chapitre intitulé The direct and indirect transmission of global credit market shocks to credit cycles in developing economies, examine la transmission des chocs financiers entre pays à travers l'activité des banques transfrontalières. Nous montrons que les chocs de crédits des marchés financiers développés sont transmis directement aux cycles de crédit des pays en développement par l'activité des banques transfrontalières. Nous trouvons également que le cycle des prix des matières premières constitue le principal canal de transmission des chocs de crédit des marchés financiers développés aux cycles de crédit des pays en développement à travers les flux de capitaux bancaires transfrontaliers. Nous trouvons enfin que la régulation macroprudentielle peut aider à réduire l'instabilité financière qui provient de ces f lux de capitaux bancaires transfrontaliers. Le troisième chapitre intitulé Essay on optimal credit development, examine la possible existence d'une région optimale d'allocation de crédit au regard de la littérature sur le développement financier et la stabilité financière. Nos résultats montrent qu'il existe quatre régimes de développement de crédit. Nos résultats indiquent également qu'il existe une région optimale de développement de crédit où tout développement de crédit aide à promouvoir la croissance économique. Nous examinons également le rôle des flux de capitaux étrangers dans ce cadre. Nous trouvons que les effets des flux de capitaux dépendent du type de flux de capitaux, du régime de développement de crédit et du niveau de développement économique.

Download or read book Three Essays on Economic Growth International Capital Flows and Country Risk written by Hulya Arik and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Capital Flows Financial Development and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries written by Heinz P. Rudolph and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Capital Flows to Developing Countries and the Reform of the International Financial System written by Yilmaz Akyüz and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Capital Inflows Financial Cycles and Business Cycles in Asian Countries written by Qing Liu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis presents three empirical papers (Chapters 2 to 4) on the contributors to the growth of Southeast and South Asian countries, their financial and business fluctuations, and the relationship between these fluctuations. The empirical analysis is carried out for China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.Chapter 2 provides a quantitative assessment of the effects of various types of capital inflows (including foreign investment, foreign aid, long-term debt and openness to trade) and human capital (in the forms of education enrollment and education expenditures) on the growth process of the selected Asian countries over the period 1970 - 2010. Our empirical analysis is based on dynamic panel data, and can be categorized into three aspects: for stationary variables, we employ VAR methodology, Granger-causality, causality strength measure, impulse response functions and variance decomposition; to analyze the non-stationary variables, we employ cointegration analysis and VECM model; and to investigate the common effects shared by all these countries, we use panel data analysis. Our results show that capital inflows affect the growth process in our sample of countries both in the short and the long term. In the majority of countries, per capita real GDP and its growth rate respond positively to four of the components in capital inflows: foreign investment, openness to trade, public investment and human capital; on the other hand, capital inflows of aid and long-term debt seem has adverse or insignificant effects on economic growth in some cases. Further, our finding is that there exists significant two-way Granger-causality between capital inflows and economic growth across multiple time horizons, and that causality is strongest between foreign capital inflows and economic growth. The third chapter empirically investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using turning points and frequency-based filters analyses. Our sample of countries in this chapter covers 11 Southeast and South Asian countries over the period 1960 to 2013. We examine the frequency, duration and amplitude of the cycles in credit, house prices and equity prices, and their synchronizations within a country as well as across countries. We find, first, that financial cycles in the Asian countries are longer and severer than the business cycle in output, but not as long as those in developed countries; second, the credit cycle displays a quite skewed shape with exceptionally longer and stronger expansions than contractions, and that, in the cycles on credit, house prices and equity prices, equity prices show the greatest volatility, the shortest cycle duration and the greatest amplitude; third, the peaks of financial cycles are closely followed by financial crises. Finally, the cycles in financial variables are highly synchronized within each country and across countries. The fourth chapter investigates the features of business cycles and their relationship with those of financial cycles in our set of 11 Asian countries. The data used is for the period 1980Q1 - 2013Q4. Our results show, first, that financial cycles tend to be deeper and sharper than business cycles. Second, cycles in output tend to display high-level synchronization with cycles in credit, whereas they do not feature much commonality with cycles in employment and with some of our other financial variables. Third, the dynamic correlations between business cycles and financial cycles in most countries are significantly positive at low frequencies while not being significant at higher frequencies. Finally, though Granger-causality tests generate mixed results between the financial and business variables, there exists strong two-way causality between credit and real GDP, with credit having very high predictive power for the growth of real GDP, and real GDP helping to predict the growth of credit. " --

Download or read book Essays on Capital Flows Crises and Economic Performance written by Abdilahi Ali and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis explores three important factors that have been central to the pursuit of economic development in developing countries, particularly those in Africa. These are capital flows, economic integration and financial crises. Chapter 1 examines the causes and consequences of capital flight in African countries. Building on standard portfolio choice model, the study links the phenomenon of capital flight to the domestic investment climate (broadly defined) and shows that African agents move their portfolios abroad as a result of a deteriorating domestic investment climate where the risk-adjusted rate of return is unfavourable. The results presented suggest that economic risk, policy distortions and the poor profitability of African investments explain the variation in capital flight. In addition, employing a PVAR and its corresponding impulse responses, the chapter shows that capital flight shocks worsen economic performance. Chapter 2 explores the (independent) effects of crises and openness on a large sample of African countries using dynamic panel techniques. Focusing on sudden stops, currency, twin and sovereign debt crises, the chapter shows that economic crises are associated with growth collapses in Africa. In contrast, economic openness is found to be beneficial to growth. More importantly, we find that, consistent with standard Mundell-Flemming type models and sticky-price open economy models, greater openness to trade and financial flows mitigates the adverse effects of crises. In the final chapter, we examine whether capital flows such as FDI, foreign aid and migrant remittances crowd-in or crowd-out domestic investment in developing countries. Applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques which can handle cross-sectional heterogeneity, serial correlation and endogeneity, we find that FDI and remittances have a positive and significant effect on domestic investment in the long-run while aid tends to act as a substitute for investment. We also conduct panel Granger causality analysis and find that the effect of FDI on investment is both transitory as well as permanent. That is, it tends to crowd-in domestic investment both in the short-run and in the long-run. We do not find any causal links between foreign aid and investment. The results show that, while remittances do not have causal effects on investment in the short-run, there is a bidirectional (causal) relationship between the two in the long-run.

Download or read book Capital Without Borders written by Ashwini Deshpande and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Capital Without Borders: Challenges to Development contains selected papers from the Annual Conference on Development and Change (ACDC) held at Sao Paulo in November 2006. Second in a series of three conferences, the 2006 ACDC showcased research by relatively younger scholars. While precise and rigorous alternatives to the neoliberal agenda are often overlooked in the huge volume of literature that addresses the larger issues, both aspects - the larger picture and the smaller nuts-and-bolts details - are very important, and this volume fills the gaps in the latter category. These papers were written before the global recession, and events subsequent to the conference and the writing of these papers have validated several of the concerns raised by their authors. This volume focuses on a plethora of issues from the point of view of the South. It demonstrates, for example, that if capital inflows exceed a certain volume - no matter how they are absorbed - such openness will inevitably result in a crisis in the receiving country. The popular understanding of foreign portfolio investment as more benign than foreign direct investment (FDI) is also challenged. By contrasting contemporary capital flows as well as the international capital flows of the nineteenth century, this collection highlights the role of regulation and the role of the state, and ultimately emphasizes the need for recipient country governments to exercise policy options to control the volume of foreign capital inflows."--Publisher's description.

Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

Download or read book Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.

Download or read book Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates written by Reuven Glick and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-06-13 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is a very timely book that brings the reader to the forefront of current research on macroeconomic policy issues in economies subject to sizable capital flows".--Guillermo A. Calvo, University of Maryland.

Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy s Risk Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.

Download or read book Essays on Capital Inflows and Econompic Development written by Delwar Hossain and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examines three issues relating to the role of foreign capital inflows in the process of economic development: the differential impacts of foreign capital inflows and remittances on domestic savings, the implications of paradigm shifts in global geo-politics on bilateral aid, and the crowding-out effect of humanitarian aid on development aid. The issues are addressed in three self-contained essays, which are enveloped in a stage-setting introductory chapter and a concluding chapter which summarises the key findings. The essays are mainly empirical, but the analysis is well informed by the relevant analytical literature and is based on 'state-of-the-art' econometric techniques. The first paper investigates the differential impacts of foreign capital inflows (FCIs) and workers' remittances on domestic savings, with FCIs disaggregated into foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment and foreign aid. The analysis is undertaken within the standard lifecycle framework using panel dataset for 63 developing countries for the period 1971-2010. The conventional homogeneous panel estimations suggest that foreign aid and remittances have a significant crowding-out impact on domestic savings, with remittances having a stronger effect. However, according to the results based on the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, which allows for parameter heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence, only remittances crowd out domestic savings and the impact of FDI, portfolio inflow and foreign aid is statistically insignificant. The key inference of the paper is that ignoring parameter heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in panel data analysis can yield biased and inconsistent estimates. The second paper examines the determinants of bilateral aid, with a specific focus on the implications of paradigm shifts in the global geo-politics from the Cold War to the global war on terror (GWOT). The analysis is based on a newly constructed panel dataset covering bilateral aid flows from 23 OECD countries to 126 developing countries for the period 1971-2010. The econometric analysis is undertaken within the augmented gravity modelling framework using the Hausman-Taylor estimator. The findings suggest that the impact of aid inertia, Cold War-related consideration and population size remain significant throughout the entire period, but the magnitude of the impact diminished over time. The recipient's economic growth, the donor's commercial interest, colonial ties and proximity have continued to remain important determinants. Aid has been used as a significant counter-terrorism tool during the GWOT regime. Recipient needs have also received greater attention during this period. The third paper examines whether humanitarian aid crowds out development aid using a newly constructed panel dataset for 23 OECD-DAC donor countries and 117 recipient countries for the period 2000-2011. The country programmable aid, which best reflects the actual amount of aid transfer from donor to recipient countries, is used as the measure for development aid. The econometric analysis is undertaken within the standard gravity modelling framework using the Hausman-Taylor approach as the preferred estimation method. The findings suggest that humanitarian aid crowds in, rather than crowds out, development aid. The upshot is that, contrary to the popular perception, disaster-proneness has a positive overall impact on development aid.

Download or read book Global Banks and International Shock Transmission written by Nicola Cetorelli and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global banks played a significant role in transmitting the 2007-09 financial crisis to emerging-market (EM) economies. The authors examine adverse liquidity shocks on main developed-country banking systems and their relationships to EM across Europe, Asia, and Latin Amer., isolating loan supply from loan demand effects. Loan supply in EM across Europe, Asia, and Latin Amer. was affected significantly through three separate channels: (1) a contraction in direct, cross-border lending by foreign banks; (2) a contraction in local lending by foreign banks¿ affiliates in EM; and (3) a contraction in loan supply by domestic banks, resulting from the funding shock to their balance sheets induced by the decline in interbank, cross-border lending. Charts and tables.

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Download or read book Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-06 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.

Download or read book Essays in the US Dollar Dominated International Financial Market written by Zefeng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies a special feature about the international financial market. Classical theories often assume that countries are symmetric, but realistically the international financial market is heavily US dollar dominated, which stimulates my interest to study whether this role of the US dollar can resolve numerous puzzles that classical theories are unable to reconcile with empirical facts, as well as to study policy implications. The role of the US in the international market is mainly unique in two aspects. First, the US dollar is the dominant currency used in international trade. Second, the US treasuries are considered as the most widely accepted safe assets. In this dissertation, the first two chapters study the safe asset role, and the third chapter explores the invoicing currency role. The first chapters analyzes the phenomenon called the US 'Exorbitant Privilege', which describes the fact that the US is the only large net borrower country in the world earning a positive net investment income. To rationalize this phenomenon, I propose a different theory about the role of US in the international financial system being a service provider, in contrast to the conventional view of an insurance provider, which predicts the US exorbitant privilege would vanish during the financial crisis, not supported by data. I build a two-country model with financial friction to explain the dynamics of the US external balance sheet and the dollar exchange rate. In the model, world financial intermediaries demand US safe assets for their convenience value, but US intermediaries do not demand foreign safe assets. Under an aggregate symmetric financial shock, the rest of the world buys more safe assets from the US despite a rise in convenience yield, the dollar appreciates, and the US takes advantage by buying more equities from the rest of the world at a low price. I show my mechanism can quantitatively explain the data, while a real shock triggering risk-sharing dynamic cannot. The second chapter is a paper completed with coauthors Shanaka J. Peiris and Sanaa Nadeem from the IMF. We take a perspective from Asian small open economies against external shocks driven by the US dollar. We focus on the banking sectors in those economics because in emerging Asia banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate these key features and estimates a panel vector autoregression on ten Asian economies to understand the role of the banking sector in transmitting spillovers from the global financial cycle to small open economies. It also evaluates the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and other macroeconomic policies in responding to external financing shocks. External financial shocks affect net external liabilities of banks and the exchange rate, leading to changes in credit supply by banks and investment. For example, a capital outflow shock leads to a deprecation that reduces the net worth and intermediation capacity of banks exposed to foreign currency liabilities. In such cases, the exchange rate acts as shock amplifier and sterilized FXI, often deployed by Asian economies, can help cushion the economy. By contrast, with real shocks, the exchange rate serves as a shock absorber, and any FXI that weakens that function can be costly. We also explore the effectiveness of the monetary policy interest rate, macroprudential policies (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs). The third chapter written with coauthors Zhengyang Jiang and Timothy Mok, exhibits a channel of how US monetary policy can have an asymmetric spillover effects and hence how the US can take advantage. We develop a model of two countries, U.S. and Japan. Households in both countries need to hold cash in advance to purchase consumption goods: The U.S. dollar can be used to purchase both countries' goods, while the Japanese yen can only be used to purchase Japan's goods. Under these constraints, an expansionary U.S. monetary policy leads to (1) a larger U.S. trade deficit, (2) larger foreign holdings of the U.S. dollar, and (3) an appreciation of the U.S. real exchange rate. In contrast, the Japanese monetary policy has none of these real effects. Beyond asymmetric monetary effects, our novel mechanism also explains the correlation between consumption and real exchange rate, and the connection between foreign economic growth and the demand for the U.S. dollar.