Download or read book Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation written by Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-28 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Download or read book The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition written by Manfred Hafner and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-09 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.
Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets written by Mr. Jorge A Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Download or read book A Proposal to End the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Ruchir Agarwal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-19 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. Building on existing initiatives, this paper proposes pragmatic actions at the national and multilateral level to expeditiously defeat the pandemic. The proposal targets: (1) vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022, (2) tracking and insuring against downside risks, and (3) ensuring widespread testing and tracing, maintaining adequate stocks of therapeutics, and enforcing public health measures in places where vaccine coverage is low. The benefits of such measures at about $9 trillion far outweigh the costs which are estimated to be around $50 billion—of which $35 billion should be paid by grants from donors and the residual by national governments potentially with the support of concessional financing from bilateral and multilateral agencies. The grant funding gap identified by the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator amounts to about $22 billion, which the G20 recognizes as important to address. This leaves an estimated $13 billion in additional grant contributions needed to finance our proposal. Importantly, the strategy requires global cooperation to secure upfront financing, upfront vaccine donations, and at-risk investment to insure against downside risks for the world.
Download or read book Connectivity Wars written by Mark Leonard and published by . This book was released on 2017-09 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trinidad and Tobago written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-05 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy continues to recover while inflation is low. Banks’ credit is expanding, and the financial sector appears sound and stable. The current account is in surplus and international reserve coverage is adequate. The fiscal position in FY2023 was better than budgeted, while public debt remained below the authorities’ soft debt target.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-10 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Download or read book Belgium written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial sector has remained resilient to a series of shocks and is well capitalized and profitable, but risks remain. Bank profitability and capital have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Liquidity buffers remain strong and banks’ direct exposures to Russia are limited. The insurance and investment funds sectors have also weathered the pandemic well. There is limited evidence of credit or asset price booms over the past decade. However, inflationary pressures, partly the result of spillovers from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and a rapid tightening of financial conditions have weakened activity and reined in credit demand. Among high uncertainty, GDP growth is projected to slow in 2023, before returning to potential over the medium-term.
Download or read book Riding the Energy Transition written by Reda Cherif and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Download or read book Cross Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid Transition written by Etienne Espagne and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-08 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
Download or read book Review of Maritime Transport 2023 written by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and published by Stylus Publishing, LLC. This book was released on 2023-09-28 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Review of Maritime Transport is an UNCTAD flagship publication, published annually since 1968. Around 80 per cent of the volume of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and the percentage is even higher for most developing countries. The Review of Maritime Transport provides an analysis of structural and cyclical changes affecting seaborne trade, ports and shipping, as well as an extensive collection of statistical information. The report calls for a “just and equitable transition” to a decarbonized shipping industry. The sector, whose greenhouse gas emissions have risen 20% over the last decade, operates an ageing fleet that runs almost exclusively on fossil fuels. As global leaders prepare for the next UN climate conference (COP28), UNCTAD advocates for system-wide collaboration, swift regulatory intervention and stronger investments in green technologies and fleets. Full decarbonization by 2050 will require massive investments and could lead to higher maritime logistics costs, raising concerns for vulnerable shipping-reliant nations like small island developing states. The report emphasizes the need to balance environmental goals with economic needs but underscores that the cost of inaction far outweighs the required investments. The report recommends policy actions to overcome supply chain hurdles African countries face, including poor logistics, low levels of technology, fragmented markets, limited capital sources, and weak institutions and regulations. Beyond cleaner fuels, the industry needs to move faster towards digital solutions like AI and blockchain to improve efficiency as well as sustainability. In its analysis of global maritime trends, the report highlights shipping’s resilience despite major challenges stemming from global crises, such as the war in Ukraine. Maritime trade is expected to grow 2.4% in 2023 and more than 3% between 2024 and 2028.
Download or read book Geoeconomic Fragmentation What s at Stake for the EU written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-30 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad-based expansion is underway, with robust domestic demand. Inflation has started to recede, and prudent fiscal policy has kept public debt in check. The changes underway in the global economy—including a shift to a lower carbon economy and the reshaping of supply chains—provide an important opportunity for Mexico. However, a broad set of reforms will be needed to translate this opportunity into improved employment prospects and better living standards.
Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-19 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The euro area economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade loss in several decades, reflecting strong policy efforts to secure gas supplies and cushion disposable incomes. Nonetheless, activity has weakened, with the economy slipping into a mild technical recession in early 2023, and inflation is far above target. While headline inflation has started to decline with the easing of supply bottlenecks and energy prices, core inflation is proving more persistent. Euro area banks are well capitalized and liquid overall, but the rapid tightening of monetary policy after a prolonged period of accommodation can expose pockets of weakness in the financial system, including in the nonbank sector.
Download or read book World Development Report 2009 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Download or read book Energy and Civilization written by Vaclav Smil and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-11-13 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive account of how energy has shaped society throughout history, from pre-agricultural foraging societies through today's fossil fuel–driven civilization. "I wait for new Smil books the way some people wait for the next 'Star Wars' movie. In his latest book, Energy and Civilization: A History, he goes deep and broad to explain how innovations in humans' ability to turn energy into heat, light, and motion have been a driving force behind our cultural and economic progress over the past 10,000 years. —Bill Gates, Gates Notes, Best Books of the Year Energy is the only universal currency; it is necessary for getting anything done. The conversion of energy on Earth ranges from terra-forming forces of plate tectonics to cumulative erosive effects of raindrops. Life on Earth depends on the photosynthetic conversion of solar energy into plant biomass. Humans have come to rely on many more energy flows—ranging from fossil fuels to photovoltaic generation of electricity—for their civilized existence. In this monumental history, Vaclav Smil provides a comprehensive account of how energy has shaped society, from pre-agricultural foraging societies through today's fossil fuel–driven civilization. Humans are the only species that can systematically harness energies outside their bodies, using the power of their intellect and an enormous variety of artifacts—from the simplest tools to internal combustion engines and nuclear reactors. The epochal transition to fossil fuels affected everything: agriculture, industry, transportation, weapons, communication, economics, urbanization, quality of life, politics, and the environment. Smil describes humanity's energy eras in panoramic and interdisciplinary fashion, offering readers a magisterial overview. This book is an extensively updated and expanded version of Smil's Energy in World History (1994). Smil has incorporated an enormous amount of new material, reflecting the dramatic developments in energy studies over the last two decades and his own research over that time.
Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-27 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth is slowing and headline inflation falling rapidly, but, as in other countries, core inflation has been stickier and short-term expectations elevated in the context of still-tight labor markets. The financial system appears broadly resilient despite global banking stresses and ongoing mortgage resets at higher interest rates. With the world moving from one crisis to the next, risks to a highly open economy like Canada are substantial and compound domestic vulnerabilities related to inflation expectations, the housing market, and household leverage. The outlook thus remains uncertain, and shocks could push the economy into a mild recession.
