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Book Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market

Download or read book Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market written by Huimin Yao and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market" by Huimin, Yao, 姚惠敏, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market Huimin YAO Department of Real Estate and Construction, The University of Hong Kong August 2005 Abstract Hong Kong has been using the leasehold system of land management rather than freehold since its colonial era. This system controlled and presently still controls use of leased land through leasehold conditions. Many leases granted decades ago thus require formal modifications to lease conditions to formalize proposed changes in land use; or to realize the actual present economic value of the land, usually following a land valuation process and payment to government of a "premium" intended to reflect the value of the land in its revised use, usually determined by standard discounted cash flow methodology. From a real options analysis perspective, such land use conversions and analysis of real options associated therewith are significantly more complex than typical stylized land development real options encountered in academic literature and research. There is thus considerable interest in obtaining empirical evidence of the performance of real options valuation in land development applications, where options associated with land development rights are substantially constrained due to regulatory influences. A review of institutional framework in Hong Kong demonstrates that developers essentially own only one type of flexibility in practice that follows typical real options analysis literature, i.e., time flexibility, while other flexibilities are rather constrained due to regulatory influence. The aim of this paper is to outline major factors in operationalizing academic real options research for practical application in a particular land market with significant regulatory constraints, and then test two hypotheses derived from real options literature using actual residential real estate development projects in Hong Kong which require leasehold land use conversions as data. The two hypotheses are: (1) there is a significant and positive difference between the land conversion premium calculated by option pricing theory and the land conversion premium calculated by the authorities (based on DCF principles); and (2) developers are expected to delay the development of land to the point predicted by the real options model. To address these two hypotheses, applied research methodology was adopted and regulatory documentation and case studies were identified to frame the design of the applied work to address institutional complexities, and to facilitate identification of critical lease covenants for real option pricing. The perpetual American call option pricing model was chosen for individual case analysis since multiple time extensions were allowed. It was demonstrated that hypothesis 1 was supported. It was further found that hypothesis 2 was also supported, which means that options were generally optimally exercised. The importance of this research is that it finds empirical support for real options theory in a sample of actual heterogeneous development projects under substantial regulatory constraints and also finds evidence for optimal exercise of real options. From a public policy perspective, these findings imply that the Hong Kong government has systematically undervalued development land in the lease modification cases. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3617334 Subjects: Real

Book Real Options  Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure

Download or read book Real Options Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure written by Jianfu Shen and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Real Options, Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure: Theory and Evidence From Hong Kong Real Estate Companies" by Jianfu, Shen, 沈建富, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The aim of this research is to investigate corporate behavior, including investment and financing decisions, when corporations face uncertainty and flexibility/inflexibility, and to explore the effects of this behavior on real option valuation. It expands the real options analysis framework into two paths: the first is to add institutional details, portfolio aspects and financial structure into the classical real option model; the other is to extend the real option model into a firm valuation model with corporate investment and financing decisions. Two types of theoretical models are developed. The first set of theoretical models follows the framework of binomial option pricing. Three binomial option pricing models are constructed to represent real estate development in Hong Kong, in which developable land has different flexibility in accordance with covenants in typical land lease contracts. First, the firm may have contractually limited time to complete the development following conversion of urban fringe/agricultural land into commercial/residential land after paying a negotiable "land premium"; second, it may buy land from the market without development time constraints; or thirdly it may buy land at public auction also with contractual development time constraints. The three binomial models deal with the flexibility/inflexibility in these land development circumstances imposed by institutional arrangements. Interaction effects from cost-saving through co-development and potential price increases through agglomeration effects from co-location of multiple options are included in the binomial models. The financial structure of the firm is also seen to influence real option values, because capital structure could imply different capital costs in the exercise of the real options, which is ignored in traditional real option theory. In addition to the traditional factors in financial option pricing models, numerical examples show that interaction effects and capital structure influence real option values and their investment thresholds. The second set of theoretical models aims to value both real flexibility and financial flexibility dynamically and simultaneously. Financial flexibility in the firm, which is seen as an important factor in the capital structure decision, is itself seen as analogous to a real option in project valuation, as the firm can use some debt capacity to invest in the opportunity but still preserve unused capacity for future opportunities. The thesis argues that the firm owns the financial flexibility to adjust its debt through sale of its existing assets or to use these as loan collateral. The firm with more collateralizable assets would have larger debt capacity, use more debt and invest more through the flexible utilization of debt capacity. Two empirical tests are conducted to confirm the findings of the theoretical models, structured into three principal hypotheses: firstly, real option value is not only determined by embedded flexibility, but also by the existing corporate asset structure through interactions and the firm's ability to trade or collateralize its existing assets (properties); second, real option value and real option execution/investment is directly influenced by external financing decisions due to financial frictions and constraints; and thirdly, financial flexibility is expected to increase corpor

Book The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options

Download or read book The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options written by Na Li and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options: Evidence From Hong Kong" by Na, Li, 李娜, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of Thesis Titled The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options: Evidence from Hong Kong Submitted by LI Na For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy At The University of Hong Kong in December 2006 There has been ample research on the relationship between the implied volatility of financial options and the realized volatility of the underlying stock. Empirical results on whether or not implied volatility contains information on future realized volatility have been mixed. This study contributes to this area of research by analyzing the informational content of derivative warrants (financial options) of property companies (indirect real estate) in Hong Kong. Previous studies suggested that there is a strong link between the prices of indirect real estate and those of direct real estate. However, there has been no research on the link between the options of indirect real estate and direct real estate. Using a sample of listed companies with a relatively long history of warrants listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, I found that there was no obvious relationship between the implied volatility and the realized volatility of the underlying stock. This is consistent with the results from previous studies. However, with regard to direct real estate, the informational content of implied volatility is different for the two broad categories of indirect real estate, namely investment companies and development companies. Investment companies hold properties for investment purposes. Their major source of revenue is rental income. I found that the implied volatility of the warrant of investment companies contained future information on the volatility of direct real estate. This result is expected, since the financial market is more liquid, and therefore, changes in the economic and political environment (such as interest rate movements and changes in fiscal and economic policies in Hong Kong and Mainland China) that are likely to affect the volatility of rental income will first be reflected in the warrant market. The results are, however, different for development companies. I found that the implied volatility of development companies contains information about the historical volatility of direct real estate. That is, the warrants of property development companies are priced based on historical volatility in the direct real estate market, which is a less liquid market. This apparently counterintuitive result can be explained by property development risk and the uncertainties that developers have to face than pricing presale housing units. The property developer has to bear the development risk in addition to fluctuations in property prices. The sources of development risks come mainly from the uncertainty in obtaining approvals from various government departments. Furthermore, in many cases, there is also uncertainty involved in negotiations with different stakeholders and pressure groups. Development risk may also vary according to the nature and timing of a development project. In essence, development risks are unique, and therefore, historical events have little predictive power. On the other hand, when developers sell their units in the presale market, they often face the problem of setting the right presale price that optimizes total profit. In the price searching process,

Book The Price Effects of Hiring Estate Agents in the Hong Kong Housing Market

Download or read book The Price Effects of Hiring Estate Agents in the Hong Kong Housing Market written by LEUNG HOI TAO and published by LEUNG HOI TAO. This book was released on 2018-02-22 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A research studies estate agents how to affect the housing prices in the Hong Kong housing market. Most of the works on the housing markets in Hong Kong has ignored the importance of real estate agents. Housing market is an imperfectly competitive market. The main function of a real estate agent in housing market is to provide information and bring buyers and sellers together. But, the empirical results of those previous studies are conflicting. Some studies found out that the effect of estate agents on housing prices is positive, but other studies demonstrated that the effect is negative.

Book The Uncertainty of House Prices and Real Options in China

Download or read book The Uncertainty of House Prices and Real Options in China written by Konstantinos P. Vergos and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the real options with spatial analysis in China's real estate markets. We employ new detailed macro-level data set for 31 provinces in China to test the central predictions of real options with respect to land development. We extended the real options method with spatial Durbin model (SDM), making this the first time that real option predictions have been tested in a spatial manner. We also examine the tests of SDM including spatial fixed measures, time fixed measures, and spatial and time fixed measures of expected future prices and price uncertainty. This method improves the accuracy of predicting the value of house prices and considers the neighbouring regional house prices. We measure the degree of price uncertainty by a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. To explore for the presence of real options in house prices, vacant land sales price is regressed on SDM measures of future house price uncertainty. Moreover, we employed Black-Scholes' (1973) pricing model to explore the option premium of land value. The weight of the evidence in this paper suggests there are real options in China's real estate markets. Uncertainty about future house prices of neighbouring regions drives up land prices in China. The findings suggested that uncertainty about future housing prices of neighbouring regions decreases investment activity in the current period; uncertainty about future house prices of neighbouring regions raises land prices above the discounted stream of rents in their current use.Market house prices of neighbouring regions reflect a premium for optimal development, which based on our estimates has a mean of 16.28% of the land value. A one-standard-deviation increase in uncertainty lowers the likelihood of development by 1.101%.

Book Markets at Work

Download or read book Markets at Work written by Bertrand Renaud and published by Hong Kong University Press. This book was released on 1997-07-28 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'The real estate economy of Hong Kong is one of the most dynamic and sophisticated in the world, and has contributed greatly to the spectacular development of this vibrant city. More importantly, at a time of rapid globalization of the world economy, it is possibly the best model of the behaviour of an advanced real estate industry operating in an open economy. Hong Kong is thereforeof interest to analysts and policymakers everywhere, not least because of Hong Kong's political reintegration with China in 1997. With this in mind, the authors have managed to capture the key economic features of the private residential real estate market in Hong Kong in this compact volume. They have identified and highlighted critical institutions that contribute to the success and economic factors which shape the dynamics of all sectors of the real estate industry in Hong Kong. This book is essential reading for market analysts, policymakers, students and international readers with an interest in comparative analysis of real estate markets and institutions.' Professor Anthony Walker, Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics,The University of Hong Kong.

Book Disposition Effect in the Housing Market

Download or read book Disposition Effect in the Housing Market written by 王鈞濤 and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Disposition Effect in the Housing Market

Download or read book Disposition Effect in the Housing Market written by Kwan-to Wong (Ph. D.) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Property Valuation and Market Cycle

Download or read book Property Valuation and Market Cycle written by Maurizio d'Amato and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-28 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the role of the property market cycle in real estate valuation. Challenging traditional property valuation methods that rely on current market conditions and economic trends, this book argues for a re-evaluation of the relationship between property valuation and cycles in property markets. The book is divided into two parts. The first part gathers research on property market cycle analysis and the delicate problems dealing with property market information including the development of the real estate market index, appraisal bias, and the use of time series in plotting the market cycle. The second part proposes several possible modifications to the traditional income approach methodologies, including cyclical capitalization and the hedonic price method. Furthermore, this part also addresses the need for amendments to current s property valuation standards and institutional regulations. Written by an international cross-section of expert voices in market cycles and property valuation, the book is a comprehensive resource for any researcher or upper-level student studying economic volatility.

Book PRICE VOLUME RELATIONSHIP IN H

Download or read book PRICE VOLUME RELATIONSHIP IN H written by Man-Suen Ho and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Price-volume Relationship in Hong Kong's Residential Market" by Man-suen, Ho, 何敏璇, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of Thesis Titled The Price-Volume Relationship in Hong Kong's Residential Market Submitted by Ho Man Suen For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy At The University of Hong Kong in August 2004 This thesis examines the relationship between transaction price and transaction volume in Hong Kong's residential market. The rational expectation hypothesis suggests that there should be no relationship between price and volume in the capital market. However, there is sufficient empirical evidence to suggest otherwise, particularly in the more developed real estate market. Both positive contemporaneous and lead-lag relationships have been reported. Nevertheless, these relationships were observed using dubious data, such as valuation-based real estate price indices, over a relatively short time horizon. This thesis investigates the nature of the price-volume relationship using a high frequency repeat sales index over a relatively long time horizon. Hong Kong's residential market, which is dominated by high-rise apartments, is sufficiently active for us to construct a monthly residential price index over a 33-year period from 1970 to 2003. This index is sufficiently long and also of a very high frequency for us to examine the nature of the price-volume relationship in the residential market and test alternative theories under different test conditions. There are three main theories that explain the price-volume relationship. They are the Rational Expectation Theory, the Information Asymmetric Theory, and the Market Imperfection Theory. Each theory implies a different price-volume relationship. The Rational Expectation Theory suggests that there should be no relationship between price and volume. The Information Asymmetric Theory recognizes investors' heterogeneity. The better-informed group takes advantage of the others and initiates trading activities before major price changes occur. The Market Imperfection Theory implies that price leads volume due mainly to down payment constraints. These theories are not mutually exclusive, since the test conditions were different. The residential market in Hong Kong has undergone a number of major changes that has led to the prevalence of different test conditions. This study makes use of these changes and tests alternative theories under different test conditions. Before 1984, the residential market in Hong Kong had yet to develop, and information costs were high. All market participants were equally informed and uninformed. Prices could then reflect the limited information from the property market instantly. The price-volume relationship should be consistent with the Rational Expectation Theory. Negotiations between the British and Chinese Governments over the tenure of land in Hong Kong started in 1982, and were settled with the signing of the Joint Sino-British Agreement in 1984. Many people were then not confident in the future of Hong Kong and decided to sell their homes in Hong Kong before migrating to other countries. This led to a panic selling of residential units, but at the same time also attracted more rational traders who took advantage of it. They analyzed market information and bought and sold undervalued residential units to make short term profits. A group of professional speculators who are more informed than the average end users/owners emerged, and this led to information asymmetry. Information asymmetry implies that transac

Book Real Options  Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure

Download or read book Real Options Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure written by 沈建富 and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Trading Volume and Liquidity Premium in the Hong Kong Housing Market

Download or read book Trading Volume and Liquidity Premium in the Hong Kong Housing Market written by Hon-Ho Kwok and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Trading Volume and Liquidity Premium in the Hong Kong Housing Market" by Hon-ho, Kwok, 郭漢豪, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled "Trading Volume and Liquidity Premium in the Hong Kong Housing Market" Submitted by Kwok Hon Ho for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in Aug 2006 Various liquidity measures, such as the time on the market and trading volume, appear in the economics and finance literature. Since prices and liquidities are normally the optimal choices of asset owners, these liquidity measures are endogenous. Because of the endogeneity of liquidity measures, the ordinary least squares estimator is biased and inconsistent. The ordinary least squares estimate of liquidity effect is expected to be upward biased because of the positive correlation between price and trading volume. In this study, the instrument-variable estimation is proposed to handle the endogeneity problem. The proposed instrument is the size of the housing development, which can be expressed in terms of the number of units developed in the development project. The upward bias of the ordinary least squares estimates and the endogeneity of trading volume are supported by the evidence from the Hong Kong housing market. The choice of instrument is motivated by the conjectured size effects of housing development in Hong Kong. Holding the houses' attributes constant, residential units in Hong Kong are expected to be of higher prices and higher liquidities if the units are developed in large scale development projects or located in large housing estates. Empirical results show that significant size effects do exist in Hong Kong. The estimated size effects on price and liquidity are tremendous. The size effects can be explained by a model based on search friction. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3688190 Subjects: Liquidity (Economics) Housing development - China - Hong Kong Housing - Prices - China - Hong Kong

Book Rental Adjustment and Housing Prices

Download or read book Rental Adjustment and Housing Prices written by Honglin Wang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book The Effects of Rental Growth Expectation on Real Estate Return

Download or read book The Effects of Rental Growth Expectation on Real Estate Return written by Yishuang Xu and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Effects of Rental Growth Expectation on Real Estate Return: a Term Structure Model and an Empirical Test in Hong Kong" by Yishuang, Xu, 徐怡爽, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The investor's expectation is instinctively to be linked to the asset's return by the finance experts and analysts. However why and how it affects the return are poorly understood and explained. Can the investor's expectation really move the market? How much the influence does it have? This study looks at this well-known puzzle between real estate returns and investors' expectations on rental income growth of real estate assets. Based on the theoretical model in this study, the questions whether, why and how the investors' expected rental income growth has effects on the real estate returns are answered. The study focuses on both private and public real estate (REITs) returns and examines whether they can be explained by the facts in Hong Kong. The theoretical model is derived from the Gordon Growth Model. The novelty of the model is to define the term structure of interest rate on the expected rental income. Empirically, the linkage between the two markets is identified through the REIT's dividend, which is specified to be distributed from 90% of the real estate asset's income. Under this specification, strong evidence is found for expected rental income growth predictive power. In this study, the relationship between the monthly end-of-period REIT's return and monthly expected rental income growth of corresponded real estate asset is tested by panel model, which does the superb job in fitting both cross-sectional and time-varied return patterns of REITs. As the REITs in Hong Kong had just launched since the end of year 2005, the sample period of this study is from November, 2005 to April, 2010. Unlike the standard asset pricing model, this study adds the investor's expectation as one of the factors which determine the REIT's return to adjust the out-performance tendency of certain asset. The study also confirms the hypothesis in private real estate market by finding that investors' expectation on rental growth imposes a positive and significant impact on the real estate return in Hong Kong. The quarterly data series of macro-economic factors, such as Gross Domestic Production, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Employment rate are tested to confirm their effects on the real estate return together with the investor's expectations on both future rental income and inflation. All four real estate sectors, including residential, office, retail and industrial property sectors, are inclusively tested in this study. For both private and public real estate markets in Hong Kong, the investor's expectation has positive effects on the corresponding asset's return. The evidence in this study shows that the change of investor's expectation would cause positive change of REIT's return. It reveals that the investors' expectation plays a vital role in the movement of both private and public real estate markets. When most investors expect a tendency of increasing earning, the real estate return tends to rise with controlling of other economic factors. Though the conclusion of this study is well-known and frequently used to explain or predict the movement of real estate market, the theory behind it is commonly ignored. This study looks deeper into it by improving Gordon Growth Model to capture the investor's expected rental income growth without econometric forecasting or questionnaire investigation. The series...

Book An Empirical Investigation of the Role of Legal Origin on the Performance of Property Stocks Within the Context of a Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of the Role of Legal Origin on the Performance of Property Stocks Within the Context of a Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy written by Christopher Shun and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2005-07-06 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of legal origin was first introduced in the Law and Finance Literature by La Porta et al. (1997) in an original study of legal determinants of external finance. Their study is timely given that investor protection is crucial because in many countries, expropriation of minority shareholders and creditors by controlling shareholders or corporate insiders is extensive. This dissertation intends to replicate the original La Porta et al. (1997) study for Property stocks in 23 countries whose legal jurisdictions falls into the four of the legal fraternities established by La Porta namely, English, French, German and Scandinavian. The primary motivations for this thesis, is that the Property stocks broadly captures several critical aspects of the original La Porta study. Specifically, Property stocks are very tangible assets that can easily be collateralised due to the direct property underpinning the net asset backing of Property stocks. The end result of this research endeavour is to provide a framework for institutional portfolio investors to determine the appropriate countries whose real estate markets have the most favourable investor climate to facilitate a more attractive environment for institutional investors given the Means Variance Optimisation (MVO) methodology. A tactical asset allocation strategy will be employed to determine the three stages that a global investor should undertake to arrive at the optimum proportions of funds to invest in Common stocks or Real Estate stocks in any country firstly based on an Emerging/Developed country analysis then secondly, a geographic Regional analysis and finally on Legal Origin analysis to distil the appropriate proportions of funds that should be invested. This Dissertation has three original contributions, which are as follows: 1) An Empirical investigation of role of Legal origin on the performance of Real Estate stocks within the context of a tactical asset allocation strategy. This dissertation studies the impact that Developed versus Emerging, Regional markets and Legal Origin jurisdictions have on the results of the optimal MVO portfolios (based on the highest Sharpe ratio) and presents the research findings of this study, at the Primary, Secondary and Tertiary levels. This dissertation is envisaged to fill the research gap between legal origin and the performance of Property stocks across four legal fraternities in 23 countries and make an original contribution in the Law & Finance and Portfolio Management Literature. 2) ACTIVE (Ex-Ante) versus PASSIVE (naïve) portfolio management strategy. The original contribution is the application of this methodology to property stocks specifically within a Legal Origin and Regional market framework. Data is collated from 1984 to 2003 (20 years inclusive) from 23 countries with specific reference to the Common and Real Estate stocks markets therein. A 5 year rolling Ex-Post analysis is computed to determine the optimum allocation weights in a multi-asset portfolio and subsequently an Ex-Ante analysis (next immediate year) of the portfolio weights applied to an Actively managed portfolio. This portfolio will be compared with actual portfolio performance from 1989 to 2002 (fifteen subsequent years) to determine whether the Ex-ANTE methodology which underpinned the Active management strategy is preferred over a Passive (equal investment in each asset class) strategy for real estate stocks portfolio management. The Ex-Ante analysis will be undertaken at two stages: Firstly, Legal Origin markets and Secondly, Regional markets. 3) A replication of the Gordon et al. (1995) study which determined the appropriate percentage based on the Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) that should be invested in the Real Estate stock markets in 14 countries. The original contribution is the application of Gordon s methodology to the Legal Origin markets proposed by La Porta et al. (1997). This research study encompasses 23 c

Book Return Patterns of German Open End Real Estate Funds

Download or read book Return Patterns of German Open End Real Estate Funds written by Sebastian Michael Gläsner and published by Peter Lang. This book was released on 2010 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this study is to better understand stable capital growth of German properties and to contribute to the explanation of stable fund returns. In the course of the investigation, evidence is found that both phenomena are interrelated. All analyses are based on publicly available data; therefore they are not limited by client interests. Results show three different pieces of evidence on return smoothing, namely the influence on valuation, the timing of valuations, and the influence on returns resulting in return differences by calendar months. Together with the notion of internationally uniquely stable returns, it seems impossible to extract true asset volatility from the observed appraisal-based time series.