Download or read book Empirical Analysis of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in Portfolio Selection Problem written by Liyuan Ding and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety first criterion and mean-shortfall criterion both explore cases of assets allocation with downside risk. In this paper, I compare safety first portfolio selection problem and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization problem, considering risk averse investors in practice. Safety first portfolio selection uses Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk measure, and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization uses expected shortfall as a risk measure, respectively. VaR is estimated by implementing extreme theory using a semi-parametric method. Expected shortfall is estimated by two nonparametric methods: a natural estimation and a kernel-weighted estimation. I use daily data on three international stock indices, ranging from January 1986 to February 2012, to provide empirical evidence in asset allocations and illustrate the performances of safety first and mean-shortfall with their risk measures. Also, the historical data has been divided in two ways. One is truncated at year 1998 and explored the performance during tech boom and financial crisis. the mean-shortfall portfolio optimization with the kernel-weighted method performed better than the safety first criterion, while the safety first criterion was better than the mean-shortfall portfolio optimization with the natural estimation method. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/148430

Download or read book A Note on Portfolio Selection Under Various Risk Measures written by Enrico G. De Giorgi and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work gives a brief overview of the portfolio selection problem following the mean-risk approach first proposed by Markowitz (1952). We consider various risk measures, i.e. variance, value-at-risk and expected shortfall and we study the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under these measures. We show that under the assumption that returns are normally distributed, the efficient frontiers obtained by taking value-at-risk or expected-shortfall are subsets of the mean-variance efficient frontier. We generalize this result for all risk measures being a combination of mean and variance and we show that for these measures Tobin separation holds under some restriction.

Download or read book Empirical Analysis of the Suitability of the Value at Risk Compared to the Expected Shortfall Against the Background of the Financial Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probabilistic Constrained Optimization written by Stanislav Uryasev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic and percentile/quantile functions play an important role in several applications, such as finance (Value-at-Risk), nuclear safety, and the environment. Recently, significant advances have been made in sensitivity analysis and optimization of probabilistic functions, which is the basis for construction of new efficient approaches. This book presents the state of the art in the theory of optimization of probabilistic functions and several engineering and finance applications, including material flow systems, production planning, Value-at-Risk, asset and liability management, and optimal trading strategies for financial derivatives (options). Audience: The book is a valuable source of information for faculty, students, researchers, and practitioners in financial engineering, operation research, optimization, computer science, and related areas.

Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer Gabler. This book was released on 2015-12-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.

Download or read book On the Validity of Value at risk written by Yasuhiro Yamai and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes written by M. R. Leadbetter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical Extreme Value Theory-the asymptotic distributional theory for maxima of independent, identically distributed random variables-may be regarded as roughly half a century old, even though its roots reach further back into mathematical antiquity. During this period of time it has found significant application-exemplified best perhaps by the book Statistics of Extremes by E. J. Gumbel-as well as a rather complete theoretical development. More recently, beginning with the work of G. S. Watson, S. M. Berman, R. M. Loynes, and H. Cramer, there has been a developing interest in the extension of the theory to include, first, dependent sequences and then continuous parameter stationary processes. The early activity proceeded in two directions-the extension of general theory to certain dependent sequences (e.g., Watson and Loynes), and the beginning of a detailed theory for stationary sequences (Berman) and continuous parameter processes (Cramer) in the normal case. In recent years both lines of development have been actively pursued.

Download or read book Statistical Data Analysis Based on the L1 Norm and Related Methods written by Yadolah Dodge and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains a selection of invited papers, presented to the fourth International Conference on Statistical Data Analysis Based on the L1-Norm and Related Methods, held in Neuchâtel, Switzerland, from August 4–9, 2002. The contributions represent clear evidence to the importance of the development of theory, methods and applications related to the statistical data analysis based on the L1-norm.

Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Download or read book Approximations for the Value at Risk Approach to Risk Return Analysis written by Dirk Tasche and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An evergreen debate in Finance concerns the rules for making portfolio hedge decisions. A traditional tool proposed in the literature is the well-known standard deviation based Sharpe Ratio, which has been recently generalized in order to involve also other popular risk measures p, such as VaR (Value-at-Risk) or CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk). This approach gives the correct choice of portfolio selection in a mean-p world as long as p is homogeneous of order 1. But, unfortunately, in important cases calculating the exact incremental Sharpe Ratio for ranking profitable portfolios turns out to be computationally too costly. Therefore, more easy-to-use rules for a rapid portfolio selection are needed. The research in this direction for VaR is just the aim of the paper. Approximation formulae are carried out which are based on certain derivatives of VaR and involve quantities similar to the skewness and kurtosis of the random variables under consid-eration. Starting point for the approximations is the observation that the partial derivatives of portfolio VaR with respect to the portfolio weights are just the conditional expectations of the asset returns given that the portfolio return equals VaR. Since the conditional expec-tation of a random variable Y given another random variable X can be considered the best possible regression of Y versus X in least squares sense, the idea is to replace the conditional expectation by polynomial regression or, more generally, by finite-dimensional regression of Y versus X. In case of the variables obeying an elliptical joint distribution, the resulting approximation formulae coincide with the exact formula for the standard deviation taken as risk measure. By means of a number of numerical examples and counter-examples the properties of the formulae are discussed.

Download or read book Stochastic Optimization written by Stanislav Uryasev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic programming is the study of procedures for decision making under the presence of uncertainties and risks. Stochastic programming approaches have been successfully used in a number of areas such as energy and production planning, telecommunications, and transportation. Recently, the practical experience gained in stochastic programming has been expanded to a much larger spectrum of applications including financial modeling, risk management, and probabilistic risk analysis. Major topics in this volume include: (1) advances in theory and implementation of stochastic programming algorithms; (2) sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems; (3) stochastic programming applications and other related topics. Audience: Researchers and academies working in optimization, computer modeling, operations research and financial engineering. The book is appropriate as supplementary reading in courses on optimization and financial engineering.

Download or read book Reward risk Portfolio Selection and Stochastic Dominance written by Enrico G. De Giorgi and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The portfolio selection problem is traditionally modelled by two different approaches. The first one is based on an axiomatic model of risk-averse preferences, where decision makers are assumed to possess an expected utility function and the portfolio choice consists in maximizing the expected utility over the set of feasible portfolios. The second approach, first proposed by Markowitz (1952), is very intuitive and reduces the portfolio choice to a set of two criteria, reward and risk, with possible tradeoff analysis. Usually the reward-risk model is not consistent with the first approach, even when the decision is independent from the specific form of the risk-averse expected utility function, i.e. when one investment dominates another one by second order stochastic dominance. In this paper we generalize the reward-risk model for portfolio selection. We define reward measures and risk measures by giving a set of properties these measures should satisfy. One of these properties will be the consistency with second order stochastic dominance, to obtain a link with the expected utility portfolio selection. We characterize reward and risk measures and we discuss the implication for portfolio selection.

Download or read book Estimation of Portfolio Value at risk and Expected Shortfall Using Copulas Extreme Value Theory and Doubly Noncentral T Distribution written by Miao Zhong and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk Estimation in Portfolio Theory written by Cordula Baur and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis analyses the possibility to estimate risk in portfolio theory with respect to three aspects: asset selection, risk estimation and return distribution. The first one re-lates to the combination of securities in a portfolio. Due to diversification effects the risk of a portfolio can be reduced by increasing returns. Despite of this, the work by Markowitz led to the development of the asset pricing models CAPM and APT. These asset pricing modes enables investors to determine correct/true asset prices and model their devel-opment. The definition and measurement of risk is another important topic in portfolio theory. In the past research has developed a variety of risk measures, but to choose a good or the best risk estimator investors need criteria. Artzner, et al with extensions by Langmann as well as Yamai, et al have presented such criteria. This master thesis analy-sis whether and how one of the most popular risk measures, VaR and C-VaR respectively Expected Shortfall, satisfy these criteria. The last aspect, this thesis discusses concern the distribution of returns. Classical portfolio theory often assumes normally distributed returns, but empirical analyses contradict this assumption for many assets. If one as-sumes normal distribution, there is a danger of underestimating risk. In this master thesis two types of distributions are discussed, which can be seen as usefull in modern risk management: Extreme Value Theory and Stable Distributions. Both distributions/theories possess great potential, but they also creat problems when they are applied in practice.

Download or read book Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management written by Škrinjari?, Tihana and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-09-25 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today’s financial market, portfolio and risk management are facing an array of challenges. This is due to increasing levels of knowledge and data that are being made available that have caused a multitude of different investment models to be explored and implemented. Professionals and researchers in this field are in need of up-to-date research that analyzes these contemporary models of practice and keeps pace with the advancements being made within financial risk modelling and portfolio control. Recent Applications of Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Management is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the use of modern data analysis as well as quantitative methods for developing successful portfolio and risk management techniques. While highlighting topics such as credit scoring, investment strategies, and budgeting, this publication explores diverse models for achieving investment goals as well as improving upon traditional financial modelling methods. This book is ideally designed for researchers, financial analysts, executives, practitioners, policymakers, academicians, and students seeking current research on contemporary risk management strategies in the financial sector.

Download or read book Forecasting Value at risk and Expected Shortfall in Large Portfolios written by Marc Hallin and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall When There Is Long Range Dependence written by Wolfgang K. Härdle and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and forecasting of market volatility. The implication is that models that accomodate long memory hold the promise of improved long-run volatility forecast as well as accurate pricing of long-term contracts. On the other hand, recent focus is on whether long memory can affect the measurement of market risk in the context of Value-at-Risk (V aR). In this paper, we evaluate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF) in financial markets under such conditions. We examine one equity portfolio, the British FTSE100 and three stocks of the German DAX index portfolio (Bayer, Siemens and Volkswagen). Classical VaR estimation methodology such as exponential moving average (EMA) as well as extension to cases where long memory is an inherent characteristics of the system are investigated. In particular, we estimate two long memory models, the Fractional Integrated Asymmetric Power-ARCH and the Hyperbolic-GARCH with different error distribution assumptions. Our results show that models that account for asymmetries in the volatility specifications as well as fractional integrated parametrization of the volatility process, perform better in predicting the one-step as well as five-step ahead VaR and ESF for short and long positions than short memory models. This suggests that for proper risk valuation of options, the degree of persistence should be investigated and appropriate models that incorporate the existence of such characteristic be taken into account.