Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Jane M. Booker and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement written by Mary A. Meyer and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Synthesized Methodology for Eliciting Expert Judgment for Addressing Uncertainty in Decision Analysis written by Richard W. Monroe and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Download or read book Expert Judgment in Project Management written by Paul S. Szwed and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Download or read book Expertise and Decision Support written by F. Bolger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-19 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem- strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert s- tems.
Download or read book Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology written by Ajith H. Perera and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-21 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Typically, landscape ecologists use empirical observations to conduct research and devise solutions for applied problems in conservation and management. In some instances, they rely on advice and input of experienced professionals in both developing and applying knowledge. Given the wealth of expert knowledge and the risks of its informal and implicit applications in landscape ecology, it is necessary to formally recognize and characterize expert knowledge and bring rigor to methods for its applications. In this context, the broad goal of this book is to introduce the concept of expert knowledge and examine its role in landscape ecological applications. We plan to do so in three steps: First we introduce the topic to landscape ecologists, explore salient characteristics of experts and expert knowledge, and describe methods used in capturing and formalizing that knowledge. Second, we present examples of research in landscape ecology from a variety of ecosystems and geographic locations that formally incorporate expert knowledge. These case studies address a range of topics that will interest landscape ecologists and other resource management and conservation professionals including the specific roles of expert knowledge in developing, testing, parameterizing, and applying models; estimating the uncertainty in expert knowledge; developing methods of formalizing and incorporating expert knowledge; and using expert knowledge as competing models and a source of alternate hypotheses. Third, we synthesize the state of knowledge on this topic and critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating expert knowledge in landscape ecological applications. The disciplinary subject areas we address are broad and cover much of the scope of contemporary landscape ecology, including broad-scale forest management and conservation, quantifying forest disturbances and succession, conservation of habitats for a range of avian and mammal species, vulnerability and conservation of marine ecosystems, and the spread and impacts of invasive plants. This text incorporates the collective experience and knowledge of over 35 researchers in landscape ecology representing a diverse range of disciplinary subject areas and geographic locations. Through this text, we will catalyze further thought and investigations on expert knowledge among the target readership of researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in landscape ecology.
Download or read book Safety and Reliability Methodology and Applications written by Tomasz Nowakowski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the last fifty years the performance requirements for technical objects and systems were supplemented with: customer expectations (quality), abilities to prevent the loss of the object properties in operation time (reliability and maintainability), protection against the effects of undesirable events (safety and security) and the ability to
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Download or read book Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities written by Charles B. Connor and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-27 with total page 671 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A summary of the current state-of-the-art in volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment of nuclear facilities for researchers, geologists and engineers.
Download or read book Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications written by Timothy J. Ross and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shows both the shortcomings and benefits of each technique, and even demonstrates useful combinations of the two.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences Volume 3 written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-12-16 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ENCYCLOPEDIA OF STATISTICAL SCIENCES
Download or read book Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering written by Krishna B. Misra and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-16 with total page 811 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers all aspects of performability engineering, providing a holistic view of the activities associated with a product throughout its entire life cycle of the product, as well as the cost of minimizing the environmental impact at each stage, while maximizing the performance. Building on the editor's previous Handbook of Performability Engineering, it explains how performability engineering provides us with a framework to consider both dependability and sustainability in the optimal design of products, systems and services, and explores the role of performability in energy and waste minimization, raw material selection, increased production volume, and many other areas of engineering and production. The book discusses a range of new ideas, concepts, disciplines, and applications in performability, including smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0; cyber-physical systems and artificial intelligence; digital transformation of railways; and asset management. Given its broad scope, it will appeal to researchers, academics, industrial practitioners and postgraduate students involved in manufacturing, engineering, and system and product development.
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.
Download or read book Innovation under Uncertainty written by Valentina Bosetti and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2015-02-27 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation under Uncertainty presents original research and insights on innovation in carbon-free energy technologies. Valentina Bosetti and Michela Catenacci provide a complete and informative assessment of the current potentials and limits and offer
Download or read book Why Elections Fail written by Pippa Norris and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-08 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume compares international and institutional accounts as alternative perspectives to explain why elections fail to meet international standards.
