Download or read book Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Market A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework written by Kai Ren Tzeng and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Housing Prices in an Estimated DSGE for the US and the Euro Area written by Matthieu Darracq Paries and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for the US and the euro area including relevant housing market features and examine the monetary policy implications of housing-related disturbances. In particular, we derive the optimal monetary policy cooperation consistent with the structural specification of the model. Our estimation results reinforce the existing evidence on the role of housing and mortgage markets for the US and provide new evidence on the importance of the collateral channel in the euro area. Moreover, we document the various implications of credit frictions for the propagation of macroeconomic disturbances and the conduct of monetary policy. We find that allowing for some degree of monetary policy response to fluctuations in the price of residential goods improves the empirical fit of the model and is consistent with the main features of optimal monetary policy response to housing-related shocks.

Download or read book An Estimated DSGE Model to Analyze Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong SAR written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last decade, Hong Kong SAR has experienced a large increase in house prices and credit, prompting the authorities to respond with several rounds of tightening macroprudential rules and increasing stamp duty taxes. This paper provides a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Hong Kong SAR and analyzes the effectiveness of these measures, and finds that they have helped reduce house price appreciation and household leverage. A baseline small open economy real business cycle model is extended by including a housing sector, financial frictions, foreign demand for the domestic housing stock, and is estimated using Bayesian methods and data for Hong Kong SAR between 1996 and 2017. The paper finds that, without these policies, house prices would have been 10.5 percent higher, and the household credit-GDP ratio 14 percent higher.

Download or read book The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union written by Oriol Aspachs-Bracons and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it. We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all type of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996-2007 period.

Download or read book Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential instrument designed specifically to dampen credit market cycles would also be useful. But invariant and rigid policy responses raise the risk of policy errors that could lower, not raise, macroeconomic stability. Hence, discretion would be required.

Download or read book House Prices and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of New Zealand written by Michael Funke and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Policy Residential Investment and Search Frictions written by Kurt G. Lunsford and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dynamic Macroeconomic Models in Emerging Market Economies written by Daniel Lukui Jia and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-26 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book summarizes the evolution of modern macroeconomics (New Consensus Macroeconomics, NCM) and proposes a new approach to theoretical and empirical analysis, which is based on a recently developed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Dynamic macroeconomic analysis in emerging market economies is challenging, and of growing importance in the global economy, where emerging markets are becoming more and more influential. Clearly, a deeper understanding of the inner workings of emerging economies, particularly with respect to their socioeconomic structure and the urbanization process, is needed. The book’s extends the NCM/DSGE model to better account for significant economic and social features in emerging market economies. In particular, household heterogeneities and social stratification are explicitly incorporated into the framework proposed here, substantially enhancing the comprehensiveness of the model economy, and allowing it to better account for underlying social structure in emerging economies. Furthermore, financial and housing markets have not been considered sufficiently in either the advanced or emerging economy literature, an oversight this book remedies. As such, it makes an original and valuable contribution to the field, and a direction for future research.

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation has three self-contained chapters in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, I develop a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where the housing sector is subject to search and matching frictions. These frictions amplify the response of residential construction to all economic shocks. Further, the interest rate spread between mortgages and risk free bonds transmits monetary policy to the housing market. An expansionary monetary policy shock reduces this spread, increasing the demand for homeownership and spurring new residential construction. I test the qualitative predictions of the DSGE model by estimating a factor-augmented vector autoregression and identifying the structural monetary policy shocks with an external instrument. Consistent with the DSGE model, an expansionary monetary policy shock reduces the interest rate spread between mortgages and Treasury bonds. In the second chapter, I study time series models for forecasting residential investment. I estimate standard univariate and multivariate models and propose an error correction model (ECM) based on the stock-flow relationship of housing starts, completions and units under construction. The root mean squared prediction errors (RMSPEs) of the models are compared along with the RMSPEs of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Federal Reserve's Greenbook. For the 1981:Q3 to 2013:Q2 sample, the ECM improves upon the competing time series models and makes modest improvements to the SPF. For the 1981:Q3 to 2007:Q4 sample, the ECM performs comparably to the Greenbook. In the third chapter, I study the implication of two stylized facts of the U.S. economy. First, nominal prices in the services sector change less frequently than those in the goods sector. Second, the size of the services sector relative to the goods sector has increased over the last 50 years. In a two-sector new Keynesian model, these facts imply that interest rate shocks should have a larger impact on output in more recent time periods. In contrast to this implication, impulse response functions of U.S. GDP to Federal Funds rate shocks estimated using both vector autoregressions and factor-augmented vector autoregressions are larger in the 1959 to 1979 time period than in the 1983 to 2007 time period.

Download or read book Rented Vs Owner Occupied Housing and Monetary Policy written by Margarita Rubio and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to show how housing tenure (rented vs. owner-occupied) affects monetary policy. In order to do that, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing, both owned and rented. First, I analyze how, in the model, preference parameters, fiscal incentives and institutional factors determine the rental market share and the residential debt-to-GDP ratio. Then, within this framework, I study how the transmission and optimality of monetary policy differ depending on these factors. From a positive perspective, impulse responses illustrate differences in the monetary transmission mechanism. In normative terms, results show that when the relative size of the rental market is larger, monetary policy is more stabilizing. An optimal monetary policy analysis also suggests that in this case, monetary policy should respond more aggressively to inflation and disregard output, since the financial accelerator effects are weaker.

Download or read book Essays on Interest Rates and the Housing Market written by Roberto Maria Croce and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the first essay of this dissertation, "Monetary Policy and the Housing Cycle," I investigate the role of monetary policy in a housing boom that precipitated the U.S. financial crisis of 2007. I find expansionary policy between 2002 and 2005 accounts for about 50% of the peak deviation of real residential investment from its long-run trend, which occurred in the second quarter of 2005. To determine if monetary policy was a contributor to the housing boom I estimate a large dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to fit the economy in several different time periods. I mathematically isolate a series of changes in the Fed Funds rate that are statistically unrelated to changes in the macroeconomy and classify these deviations as a measure of monetary policy. The magnitude of the monetary policy series is relatively small during the housing boom but explains half of the of the 2005 peak in residential investment because of inertia in the Fed Funds rate.

Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.

Download or read book An Estimated DSGE Model to Analyze Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong SAR written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last decade, Hong Kong SAR has experienced a large increase in house prices and credit, prompting the authorities to respond with several rounds of tightening macroprudential rules and increasing stamp duty taxes. This paper provides a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Hong Kong SAR and analyzes the effectiveness of these measures, and finds that they have helped reduce house price appreciation and household leverage. A baseline small open economy real business cycle model is extended by including a housing sector, financial frictions, foreign demand for the domestic housing stock, and is estimated using Bayesian methods and data for Hong Kong SAR between 1996 and 2017. The paper finds that, without these policies, house prices would have been 10.5 percent higher, and the household credit-GDP ratio 14 percent higher.

Download or read book Data Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models written by Mr.Maxym Kryshko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.

Download or read book The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union written by Oriol Aspachs and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many developed countries have seen housing prices and residential investment soar in the last decade. This fact has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze these issues for the case of Spain, who has seen the interest rates at historical lows since it joined the EMU, and increasing housing demand pressures from immigration and the baby boom generation. First, we present evidence based on a VAR model that suggests that both monetary and demand shocks are behind Spain's housing boom. Second, we calibrate a New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in a currency area with durable goods. We study the effects of a housing demand shock, a monetary policy shock and a risk premium shock in the model. This allows us to better understand the factors amplifying a housing boom, the role played by the ECB and the recessionary effects of a housing bust. Our results are as follows. First, the model confirms that a combination of these shocks is indeed behind Spain's housing boom. Second, labor market rigidities provide strong amplification effects to all type of shocks, while financial frictions play a secondary role. Third, monetary policy autonomy is of first order importance to cushion risk premium shocks, while this is not the case for housing demand shocks.

Download or read book House Prices Consumption and Monetary Policy written by Kosuke Aoki and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a live debate about the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Do house prices merely reflect macroeconomic conditions, or are there important feedback effects from house prices to other economic variables? We consider a general equilibrium model where asymmetric information problems create frictions in credit markets used by households. In particular, we apply the financial accelerator mechanism of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist to the household sector. In our economy, houses serve two purposes: they provide a stream of housing services to consumers and they serve as collateral to lower the agency costs related to borrowing. We show that under certain conditions this amplifies and propagates the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing investment, house prices and consumption. We also consider the effect of a structural change in credit markets that lowers the transaction costs of additional borrowing against housing equity. We show that such a change would increase the effect of monetary policy shocks on consumption, but would decrease the effect of monetary policy shocks on house prices and housing investment.

Download or read book The Pricing Out Phenomenon in the U S Housing Market written by Francesco Beraldi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.