Download or read book Economic Cycles and Fiscal Response in Oil producing Countries written by Zaneta Kubik and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil exporting Countries written by Aasim M. Husain and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle written by Mauricio Villafuerte and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Boom Bust Cycle Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Kamilya Tazhibayeva and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil Producing Countries written by Nese Erbil and published by . This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group.

Download or read book Boom Bust Cycle Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

Download or read book The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia Is the Current Crisis Different written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response during the current global economic crisis is different in 2009. Across a sample of 28 countries, we find that fiscal policy has typically amplified the business cycles and that it has been more procyclical in good times than in bad times. However, the response to the current crisis has differed from the past in that about half of the countries responded countercyclically in 2009. Going forward, the fiscal space during downturns varies widely across countries, depending on the level of debt, access to capital markets, and natural resource wealth. Not surprisingly, the oil exporters have more fiscal room than oil importers, although there are some oil importers that still have room to respond countercyclically in bad times.

Download or read book Exogenous Oil Shocks Fiscal Policy and Sector Reallocations in Oil Producing Countries written by Alessandro Cologni and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous literature has suggested that different mechanisms of transmission of exogenous oil shocks are responsible for the negative effects on the economic performances of oil exporting countries. This paper aims at providing further evidence on the role of sectoral reallocation between private and public sectors in explaining the impact of shocks to oil revenues on the economic growth rates of major oil producing countries (namely the GCC - Gulf Corporation Council - countries). The effects of oil shocks and expansionary fiscal policy on the business cycle of oil producing countries are examined. The possibility to distinguish between various components of public sector spending policy (that is, purchases of consumption goods, investments in productive activities and compensation for public employees) is, in particular, allowed for. A real business cycle (RBC) model is calibrated to fit the data on an “average” oil producing country. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model suggest that the possibility that crowding-out effects of public over private investments can explain a large fraction of the negative effects of shocks to oil revenues on the private sector of the economy. In addition, since the growth in size of the public sector is unable to compensate for the reduction in size of the private sector, an increase in oil revenues has the effect to decrease total output. An expansionary fiscal policy is argued to have significant positive effects on private investments, employment and overall production. On the contrary, a shock to government consumption expenditure impacts negatively the level of public investment. As employment in the public sector increases significantly, public output responds positively to a shock in government consumption expenditure. Finally, an instantaneous negative effect on total investments and on the stock of capital in the economy is predicted. However, driven by the increase of the number of employees in the economy, total output expands.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil Producing Countries written by Mr.Jeffrey M. Davis and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2003-08-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries with large oil resources can benefit substantially from them. However, despite their huge natural resources, many oil producers have had disappointing growth, widespread poverty, and continuing vulnerability to oil price and other external shocks. Fiscal policy can play a central role indetermining the extent to which a country benefits from its oil wealth. This book brings together studies that provide analysis and findings on fiscal policy issues in oil-producing countries from a diverse international perspective. A key focus for the authors is how to manage oil resources in a way that contributes to a stable macroeconomic environment, sustainable growth, and poverty reduction.

Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...

Download or read book Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries Design and Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-16 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy written by Matthew J. Kotchen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-01-24 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy in the United States. Rebecca Davis, J. Scott Holladay, and Charles Sims analyze recent trends in and forecasts of coal-fired power plant retirements with and without new climate policy. Severin Borenstein and James Bushnell examine the efficiency of pricing for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. James Archsmith, Erich Muehlegger, and David Rapson provide a prospective analysis of future pathways for electric vehicle adoption. Kenneth Gillingham considers the consequences of such pathways for the design of fuel vehicle economy standards. Frank Wolak investigates the long-term resource adequacy in wholesale electricity markets with significant intermittent renewables. Finally, Barbara Annicchiarico, Stefano Carattini, Carolyn Fischer, and Garth Heutel review the state of research on the interactions between business cycles and environmental policy.

Download or read book When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances written by Fabian Bornhorst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-11 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.