Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.

Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-03-21 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Download or read book The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance written by Ben Clift and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-03-14 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.

Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook December 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.

Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook March 2011 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2011-03-23 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.

Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.

Download or read book Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Treasury Committee's report on Budget 2013 focuses on: macroeconomy; the public finances; monetary policy; taxation; departmental spending; housing; energy policy; premature disclosure of budget information; Parliamentary timing. The report contains 46 conclusions and recommendations. Particular attention is paid to the Help to Buy housing policy, which is considered a work in progress which may have unintended consequences and may not help first-time buyers. The Committee poses a number of questions for the Chancellor on the policy. Overall, if the Government's priority was housing supply, its housing measures should have concentrated there. On energy it is unclear which Government Department is in the lead for energy policy and this lack of clarity must be addressed. The changes to the monetary policy remit announced by the Chancellor at the time of Budget 2013 create uncertainty. Tax complexity and instability remain of considerable concern. The Committee will monitor whether the Government anti-avoidance measures succeed in generating the revenue predicted of them. In addition, the Committee invited comments from three accounting bodies on how Budget 2013 meets the Committee's tax policy principles: basic fairness; supporting growth and encouraging competition; certainty, including simplicity; stability; practicality; and coherence.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and Fiscal Outlook Cm 8748 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2013 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2013-06-20 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.

Download or read book HC 1189 Budget 2014 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this report the Treasury Committee makes recommendations on pensions, savings, HMRC debt recovery powers and housing. The greater flexibility and choice provided by the proposed pension reforms is welcomed. The 'guidance guarantee' is an important part of making sure that consumers benefit from increased choice. It should be measured against a set of recommended principles to ensure its effectiveness. The pensions reforms are also likely to lead to financial innovation. Following the financial crisis, and the mis-selling scandals, the reputation of the industry is under scrutiny. With regard to savings - double taxation has long been a deterrent to some forms of saving. With the enhanced flexibility for those saving there may now be scope in the long term for bringing the tax treatment of savings and pensions together to create a 'single savings' vehicle. The proposal to grant the power to HMRC to take money directly from people's bank accounts is extremely concerning. Exceptional powers such as this require prior independent oversight. With regard to housing, the Help to Buy scheme, at least in the short-to-medium term, could raise house prices. There is also the risk that withdrawal of Help to Buy may have a distorting effect on the housing market. The need to address these difficulties places a particular responsibility on the FPC, as well as the Government, for detecting and addressing the financial stability risks arising from the housing market. There are also reservations about any extension of retrospection in the tax system. Retrospection should be considered only in wholly exceptional circumstances

Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-12-05 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy has performed less strongly than forecast in March 2012 (Cm. 8303, ISBN 9780101830324) and GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% in 2012 and then to grow by 1.2% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is forecast at £108 billion or 6.9% of GDP this year (excluding the transfer of the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit into the public sector). PSNB is then forecast to decline to £31 billion or 1.6% of GDP by 20017-18. Public sector net debt (PSND) is now expected to peak at 79.9% of GDP in 2015-16 meaning the Government will miss its supplementary target of PSND falling as a share of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Other developments since the March 2012 forecasts include: the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8%, and the overall level of employment rose to 29.6 million in the three months to September. Around half the increase since 2011 has been driven by a rise in self-employment and part-time employees, though total hours worked per week have also risen. The situation in the euro area continues to weigh on confidence and trade. Inflation is also likely to be higher in the short term, reducing the growth of real household disposable income and consumption. The Government has a greater than 50% chance of hitting its fiscal mandate.

Download or read book Hard Times written by Tom Clark and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-01 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published: 2014, as Hard times: the divisive toll of the economic slump.

Download or read book Anti politics Depoliticization and Governance written by Paul Fawcett (Political scientist) and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a mounting body of evidence pointing towards rising levels of public dissatisfaction with the formal political process. Depoliticization refers to a more discrete range of contemporary strategies that add to this growing trend towards anti-politics by either removing or displacing the potential for choice, collective agency, and deliberation. This book examines the relationship between these two trends as understood within the broader shift towards governance. It brings together a number of contributions from scholars who have a varied range of concerns but who nevertheless share a common interest in developing the concept of depoliticization through their engagement with a set of theoretical, conceptual, methodological, and empirical questions. This volume explores these questions from a variety of different perspectives and uses a number of different empirical examples and case studies from both within the nation state as well as from other regional, global, and multi-level arenas. In this context, this volume examines the potential and limits of depoliticization as a concept and its position and contribution in the nexus between the larger and more established literatures on governance and anti-politics.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.