Download or read book An Introduction to Econometric Forecasting and Forecasting Models written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1980 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The model approach to economic forecasting; Model resources and structure; Specification and validation of a forecasting model; Forecasting.
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Download or read book Econometric Modeling and Forecasting written by Jagat Prirayani and published by . This book was released on 2017-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book serves as a reference guide to econometrics modelling and forecasting. The book is divided into two parts i.e. Modelling and Forecasting, to make it easy for the reader to understand the topic.The first part of the book i.e. Modelling, throws light on the various econometric models. The models are very well explained to make it easier for anyone reading the book to grasp the concept. Various mathematical and statistical tools used with reference to econometrics models are also discussed. Chapter 4 discusses hypothesis testing which is of paramount importance in any research and will also act as a base for the next part of the book i.e. Forecasting. Various basic tests, which are used for hypothesis testing are also included in the chapter.The second part of the book i.e. Forecasting includes several different concepts such as forecasting principles, forecasting classification, forecasting accuracy evaluation and its industrial applications in depth. The concepts are enriched with relevant case studies. The case studies have been specially selected for the better understanding of the concepts. The book is written with a vision to guide the reader on structuring a forecasting problem. The book provides the necessary information to the reader so that the reader can design various forecasting methods and evaluate them efficiently. It answers important questions such as: * How to implement various forecasting methods in different situations and with different variables?* When to accept or reject the forecasts? The book takes the readers through a variety of forecasting methods, with a strong discussion on their strengths and weaknesses, and an analysis on how to use them efficiently. The book has been written with the objective of helping the readers/researchers select the most appropriate method for a given forecasting problem and ultimately, evaluate the chosen forecasting model. This is useful especially when selection of the most appropriate method for a particular situation is the most important criterion. This book also suggests what research on forecasting methods will have the greatest, and the least, payoff. Research on forecasting has grown in importance to a great extent in recent times due to the fact that application of forecasting techniques has been growing rapidly in the areas of the social, behavioral and management sciences. So much is known about forecasting methods, but little is applied. Why? Because what is known in one field is unknown in another or because it frequently contradicts our common sense or challenges our beliefs and our behavior. Hence, the book will also tell the researcher how to effectively use, evaluate and interpret different forecasting methods under different situations. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Overall, this book should serve as a standard source of reference for researchers in the fields of business, government, academia, and consulting.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Download or read book Econometric Modeling written by David F. Hendry and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-21 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.
Download or read book Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by McGraw-Hill/Irwin. This book was released on 1998 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This well known text helps students understand the art of model building - what type of model to build, building the appropriate model, testing it statistically, and applying the model to practical problems in forecasting and analysis.
Download or read book Nonlinear Financial Econometrics Forecasting Models Computational and Bayesian Models written by G. Gregoriou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-21 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates several competing forecasting models for interest rates, financial returns, and realized volatility, addresses the usefulness of nonlinear models for hedging purposes, and proposes new computational techniques to estimate financial processes.
Download or read book Statistics Econometrics and Forecasting written by Arnold Zellner and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-02-19 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on two lectures presented as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics series, Arnold Zellner describes the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling. Developed by Zellner and Franz Palm, the SEMTSA approach produces an understanding of the relationship of univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models and dynamic, time series structural econometric models. As scientists and decision-makers in industry and government world-wide adopt the Bayesian approach to scientific inference, decision-making and forecasting, Zellner offers an in-depth analysis and appreciation of this important paradigm shift. Finally Zellner discusses the alternative approaches to model building and looks at how the use and development of the SEMTSA approach has led to the production of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that will prove valuable to many. Written by one of the foremost practitioners of econometrics, this book will have wide academic and professional appeal.
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Download or read book Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting written by Chris Brooks and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As real estate forms a significant part of the asset portfolios of most investors and lenders, it is crucial that analysts and institutions employ sound techniques for modelling and forecasting the performance of real estate assets. Assuming no prior knowledge of econometrics, this book introduces and explains a broad range of quantitative techniques that are relevant for the analysis of real estate data. It includes numerous detailed examples, giving readers the confidence they need to estimate and interpret their own models. Throughout, the book emphasises how various statistical techniques may be used for forecasting and shows how forecasts can be evaluated. Written by a highly experienced teacher of econometrics and a senior real estate professional, both of whom are widely known for their research, Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is the first book to provide a practical introduction to the econometric analysis of real estate for students and practitioners.
Download or read book An Executive s Guide to Econometric Forecasting written by Al Migliaro and published by Institute of Business Forec. This book was released on 1987 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Econometric Model Performance in Forecasting and Policy Assessment written by W. Allen Spivey and published by A E I Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph on current econometric models used in economic forecasting and economic policy assessment - presents the methodology of linear and nonlinear simulation models, and includes a statistical analysis of forecast errors of major econometric models. Bibliography pp. 73 to 77, graphs and statistical tables.
Download or read book Economic and Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by C. W. J. Granger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.
Download or read book Econometric Modeling and Forecasting written by Nalan Baştürk and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
