Download or read book Dynamic Demand Modeling Energy Management and Investment Strategies in Uncertain Energy Markets written by Farbod Farzan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis is focused on development of an integrated decision making support framework to assist with the design of a sustainable community that has access to secure clean energy and utilizes innovative technologies and strategies. Innovative technologies include but not limited to renewable generation/storage resources, Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV), Building Monitoring Systems (BMS), Programmable Communication Devices (PCD), and etc. This framework has 3 unique components: i. energy dynamic demand modeling, ii. investment strategies for Distributed Energy Resources (DER), and iii. demand side energy management in uncertain markets. In the existing litrature and industry practices, energy load profile is considered as an input to a decision making support tools and its dynamics is ignored which can lead to unreliable and less cost effective investment decisions in the long run. The analysis of such dynamics is not possible with existing demand forecast models, which are built based on time series forecasts relying on historical data. Therefore, in this thesis a bottom-up demand forecasting model entitled High Resolution Adaptive Model (Hi-RAM) is integrated with DER investment model. Hi-RAM provides compelling results concerning the potential load shifting of PEVs, as well as how advanced energy management systems enable response to Electric Distribution Companies (EDC) price signals. Hi-RAM is a bottom-up stochastic demand model consisting of: 1- Markovian stochastic process for simulating human activities, and buildings occupany profiles. 2- Probabilistic Bayesian and Logistic technology adoption models and 3- Optimization and rule-based energy management models for building end-uses e.g., Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC), Lighting, and PEV charging which enable them to respond to EDC price signals without compromising users' comfort. The DER investment model is built as a non-linear stochastic mixed integer programming to maximize the cash flow over the planning horizon considering long-term market variations, short-term operational volatilities, and the dynamics of underlying demand. Integration of Hi-RAM and the DER investment model offers a novel analytical framework which can be used at the design stage of new products to assess their effectiveness. Such a framework can also assist decision makers to investigate investment strategies on community's DER e.g., PV solar, wind turbines, electric storages, and etc. taking into account the specifics of building behavioral and physical characteristics as well as the emergence of new end-uses and Demand-Side Management (DSM) capabilities. While developing this tool is an essential step towards sustainable and efficient energy solutions in the planning stage of new buildings and communities, attention must also be paid to the existing building stock where the U.S. buildings sector alone accounted for 7% of global primary energy consumption. Recognizing its importance, this thesis also investigates advanced energy magement and control policies for buildings within a constrained peak demand envelope while ensuring that custom climate conditions are facilitated. This will mitigate service disruption and high cost of energy production and distribution.

Download or read book New Methods for Energy Market Modelling written by Dominik Möst and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2008 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Electricity Markets written by Sayyad Nojavan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-10 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes new electricity pricing models that consider uncertainties in the power market due to the changing behavior of market players and the implementation of renewable distributed generation and responsive loads. In-depth chapters examine the different types of market players including the generation, transmission, and distribution companies, virtual power plants, demand response aggregators, and energy hubs and microgrids. Expert authors propose optimal operational models for short-term performance and scheduling and present readers with solutions for pricing challenges in uncertain environments. This book is useful for engineers, researchers and students involved in integrating demand response programs into smart grids and for electricity market operation and planning. Proposes optimal operation models; Discusses the various players in today's electricity markets; Describes the effects of demand response programs in smart grids.

Download or read book Dynamic Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Portfolio Management and Inventory Management written by Jianjun Deng and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It is challenging and important for a firm to make effective decisions under uncertainties, such as random fluctuations of products prices or demands, etc. This dissertation formulates mathematic models to help decision makers in energy and retail industries make optimal timing and optimal operational decisions when facing uncertain electricity prices and demands. As for energy portfolio management, the optimal entry and dispatch strategies are investigated for an electricity generating firm to introduce a renewable power plant as an alternative method for generating electricity, with or without construction delay. In addition, the abandonment strategies of considering shutting down one of the two power plants in the energy portfolio are studied. To develop these strategies, the expected per unit profit is maximized over a finite time horizon by assuming that the price of electricity follows mean reversion stochastic process. This problem is formulated as a mixed optimal stochastic control and optimal stopping problem. The original problem is solved numerically through two auxiliary problems. Numerical experiments are conducted to confirm the results. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to reveal how the uncertainty of electricity price, investment, operation cost, and production rate affect the decisions. A dynamic inventory model is also developed to study optimal control policy in a finite planning horizon with consideration of debt financing and tax. The model assumes that the retailer raises funds from the financial market and replenishes its stock under the constraint of its cash flow facing random demand. The objective is to maximize the expected terminal wealth. The optimal inventory policy and the optimal debt financing decision with the capital constraint and the effect of tax are obtained"--Abstract, leaf iii.

Download or read book Agent Based Models of Energy Investment Decisions written by Tobias Wittmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-15 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As societies face the challenge of securing an efficient and environmentally sound energy supply, researchers have strived to determine the future development of energy consumption, infrastructure and technology endowment. This book proposes a new agent-based approach to studying the development of urban energy systems. Decisions of private and commercial investors and operators are modeled using a bounded rational decision model which are parameterized by socio-economic data.

Download or read book Energy Market and Energy Transition Dynamics and Prospects written by Xunpeng (Roc) Shi and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-06-04 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading written by Raimund M. Kovacevic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an overview of the risks involved in modern electricity production, delivery and trading, including technical risk in production, transportation and delivery, operational risk for the system operators, market risks for traders, and political and other long term risks in strategic management. Using decision making under uncertainty as a methodological background, the book is divided into four parts, with Part I focusing on energy markets, particularly electricity markets. Topics include a nontechnical overview of energy markets and their main properties, basic price models for energy commodity prices, and modeling approaches for electricity price processes. Part II looks at optimal decisions in managing energy systems, including hydropower dispatch models, cutting plane algorithms and approximative dynamic programming; hydro-thermal production; renewable; stochastic investments and operational optimization models for natural gas transport; decision making in operating electricity networks; and investment in extending energy production systems. Part III explores pricing, including electricity swing options and the pricing of derivatives with volume control. Part IV looks at long-term and political risks, including energy systems under aspects of climate change, and catastrophic operational risks, particularly risks from terrorist attacks.

Download or read book Energy and Power Risk Management written by Alexander Eydeland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-03 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

Download or read book Uncertainties in energy markets and their consideration in energy storage evaluation written by Keles, Dogan and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book successfully illustrates the modeling of electricity prices with the help of stochastic processes. The relatively new phenomenon of negative prices is also integrated into the models. The integration of feed-in from wind power plants in energy models is also very innovative. This approach helps to simulate electricity prices in order to take into account the "merit-order effect of renewable energy". Finally, the models are used for the techno-economic evaluation of energy storages.

Download or read book Optimum Investment Strategy in the Power Industry written by Ryszard Bartnik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-07 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an innovative methodology for identifying optimum investment strategies in the power industry. To do so, it examines results including, among others, the impact of oxy-fuel technology on CO2 emissions prices, and the specific cost of electricity production. The technical and economic analysis presented here extend the available knowledge in the field of investment optimization in energy engineering, while also enabling investors to make decisions involving its application. Individual chapters explore the potential impacts of different factors like environmental charges on costs connected with investments in the power sector, as well as discussing the available technologies for heat and power generation. The book offers a valuable resource for researchers, market analysts, decision makers, power engineers and students alike.

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand written by Kevin Berk and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-20 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.

Download or read book Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets written by Athanasios Dagoumas and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-01-30 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets reviews major methodologies and tools to accurately analyze and forecast contemporary electricity markets in a ways that is ideal for practitioner and academic audiences. Approaches include optimization, neural networks, genetic algorithms, co-optimization, econometrics, E3 models and energy system models. The work examines how new challenges affect power market modeling, including discussions of stochastic renewables, price volatility, dynamic participation of demand, integration of storage and electric vehicles, interdependence with other commodity markets and the evolution of policy developments (market coupling processes, security of supply). Coverage addresses all major forms of electricity markets: day-ahead, forward, intraday, balancing, and capacity. Provides a diverse body of established techniques suitable for modeling any major aspect of electricity markets Familiarizes energy experts with the quantitative skills needed in competitive electricity markets Reviews market risk for energy investment decisions by stressing the multi-dimensionality of electricity markets

Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.

Download or read book Energy Modelling and the Management of Uncertainty written by Risk Books Staff and published by Risk Books. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text contains a detailed analysis of the most difficult problems in pricing electricity, including: price modelling, derivative valuation, feedstock correlations, and weather risk. The book also relates key modelling difficulties to practical strategies for risk management.

Download or read book Renewable Energy Integration written by Lawrence E. Jones and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-06-12 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Integration is a ground-breaking new resource - the first to offer a distilled examination of the intricacies of integrating renewables into the power grid and electricity markets. It offers informed perspectives from internationally renowned experts on the challenges to be met and solutions based on demonstrated best practices developed by operators around the world. The book's focus on practical implementation of strategies provides real-world context for theoretical underpinnings and the development of supporting policy frameworks. The book considers a myriad of wind, solar, wave and tidal integration issues, thus ensuring that grid operators with low or high penetration of renewable generation can leverage the victories achieved by their peers. Renewable Energy Integration highlights, carefully explains, and illustrates the benefits of advanced technologies and systems for coping with variability, uncertainty, and flexibility. Lays out the key issues around the integration of renewables into power grids and markets, from the intricacies of operational and planning considerations, to supporting regulatory and policy frameworks Provides global case studies that highlight the challenges of renewables integration and present field-tested solutions Illustrates enabling and disruptive technologies to support the management of variability, uncertainty and flexibility

Download or read book Energy Price Uncertainty and Investment a Stochastic Q Model written by Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: