Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Download or read book Dealing with Uncertainties in Policing Serious Crime written by Gabriele Bammer and published by ANU E Press. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Grappling with uncertainties is at the heart of investigating serious crime. At a time when such crime is becoming more complex and resources are increasingly stretched, this book draws together research and practice perspectives to review fruitful approaches to uncertainties and to chart the way forward. Scene setting chapters describe the consequences of globalisation and the spread of sophisticated information technologies (Sue Wilkinson), as well as advances in understanding and managing uncertainty (Michael Smithson). Ways of enhancing responses from statistics (Robyn Attewell), risk analysis (Richard Jarrett and Mark Westcott) and the psychology of decision making (Mark Kebbell, Damon Muller and Kirsty Martin) follow. These are complemented by insights from law (the Hon. Tim Carmody SC), politics (the Hon. Carmen Lawrence) and business (Neil Fargher), which all have significant intersections with policing. Synthesis is provided by the four final chapters which present the outlooks of the investigating officer and investigation manager (Peter Martin), the provider of policing higher education (Tracey Green and Greg Linsdell), the capacity-building consultant (Steve Longford), and the leader of a law enforcement agency (Alastair Milroy).
Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Download or read book Comfortable with Uncertainty written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
Download or read book Dueling with Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dealing in Uncertainty written by Arjen van der Heide and published by Policy Press. This book was released on 2023-04-28 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Insurance is an important – if still poorly understood – mechanism for dealing with a broad variety of risks associated with modern life. This book conducts an in-depth examination of one of the largest and longest-established private insurance industries in Europe: British life insurance. In doing so, it draws on over 40 oral history interviews to trace how the sector has changed since the 1970s, a period characterized by rampant financialization and neoliberalization. Combining insights from science and technology studies and economic sociology, this is an unprecedented study of the evolution of insurance practices and an invaluable contribution to our understanding of financial capitalism.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.
Download or read book The Light and Fast Organisation written by Patrick Hollingworth and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-20 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cut the organisational and operational dead weight to climb higher, faster The Light and Fast Organisation presents a blueprint for organisations looking to thrive in today's rapidly evolving business landscape. VUCA - Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity - has become the dominant mode of modern business, and leaders are overwhelmed. Competition and instability has increased while barriers to entry have fallen, chronic employee disengagement is on the rise and the global economic recovery is incredibly fragile; business leaders are uncomfortable, with threats to their business looming on all sides. This book proposes an alternative to the VUCA paradigm, one in which we learn to be comfortable with being uncomfortable, and a model for helping your organisation climb above the fray. Case studies from both business and mountaineering illustrate the benefits and practicalities of becoming light, fast, and agile and underscore the importance of self-awareness and self-reliance in minimising your exposure to risk. Business and mountaineering share many parallels, including frequent operation outside of the comfort zone. This book shows you the strong skills and effective strategies you need to reach the summit. Get comfortable with discomfort Adopt an 'Alpine Style' approach to business Operate outside of the VUCA paradigm Stretch outside your comfort zone to achieve more, faster Leaders must accept the current VUCA state and assess their preparedness, but it's possible to move beyond it by ingraining a 'light and fast' approach at the core of their organisations' values and operations. It's only through reaching beyond the 'safe' zone that we learn what we're made of, and build the foundations for successful leadership and teamwork. The Light and Fast Organisation is your practical coach for climbing the mountain, and your guide to the quickest route to the summit.
Download or read book Mapping Uncertainty in Medicne written by Avril Danczak and published by Royal College of General Practitioners. This book was released on 2016-02-28 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is the norm in medical practice, yet often gives rise to distress in clinicians, who fear they will make shameful or guilt inducing errors. This book offers a succinct method to clinicians for classifying uncertainty and finding the right skills to manage different types of uncertainty successfully. Every clinician experiences moments when 'they don't know what to do'. Modern medicine is increasingly complex and training has also become more complicated. The days of 'see one, do one, teach one' are over. Yet, both younger clinicians and senior practitioners describe uncertainty as one of the most challenging and stressful aspects of clinical work. If uncertainty is uncomfortable or threatening to individual practitioners, it also provides complex educational challenges. How can we learn to cope with uncertainty effectively ourselves? How can we teach others to understand and manage uncertainty? In this ground breaking book, the authors propose ways to cut through uncertainty, which is explored as an inevitable (and even desirable) component of clinical practice. A Map of Uncertainty in Medicine (MUM) is used to classify uncertainty and to define the skills that will help find a way though practical difficulties. It is always good to have your MUM with you in a tricky situation!
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Patrik Aspers and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-07-17 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read on the Oxford Academic platform and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. In Uncertainty, Patrik Aspers provides detailed analysis of publicly available means of uncertainty reduction. Drawing on phenomenology, social constructionism, and the sociology of knowledge, Aspers considers the meaningful differences between uncertainty and risk, the different ways people cope and have coped with uncertainty through history, the importance of knowledge and science to reducing uncertainty, and the trade-offs involved in reducing forms of uncertainty while leaving open opportunities for others. People may have access to unique and private knowledge that reduces their uncertainty when making decisions. Publicly available knowledge is central for building a society that enables communication based on shared ideas and understanding, instead of falling into bubbles, echo chambers, and private truths. Examples include institutions, laws, standards, evaluation, competition, and ranking. The book addresses how these reduce uncertainty and how these ways are created. Examining what people can and in fact do to reduce uncertainty, Aspers addresses the existential dimension of uncertainty, the collective efforts and socially produced outcomes that lead to reduced uncertainty, and the social order that results.
Download or read book Testing Treatments written by Imogen Evans and published by Pinter & Martin Publishers. This book was released on 2011 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work provides a thought-provoking account of how medical treatments can be tested with unbiased or 'fair' trials and explains how patients can work with doctors to achieve this vital goal. It spans the gamut of therapy from mastectomy to thalidomide and explores a vast range of case studies.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.
Download or read book Communicating Uncertainty written by Sharon M. Friedman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploring the interactions that swirl around scientific uncertainty and its coverage by the mass media, this volume breaks new ground by looking at these issues from three different perspectives: that of communication scholars who have studied uncertainty in a number of ways; that of science journalists who have covered these issues; and that of scientists who have been actively involved in researching uncertain science and talking to reporters about it. In particular, Communicating Uncertainty examines how well the mass media convey to the public the complexities, ambiguities, and controversies that are part of scientific uncertainty. In addition to its new approach to scientific uncertainty and mass media interactions, this book distinguishes itself in the quality of work it assembles by some of the best known science communication scholars in the world. This volume continues the exploration of interactions between scientists and journalists that the three coeditors first documented in their highly successful volume, Scientists and Journalists: Reporting Science as News, which was used for many years as a text in science journalism courses around the world.
Download or read book Embrace the Chaos written by Bob Miglani and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2013-10-07 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An accomplished Fortune 50 executive translates for a western audience the lessons he learned from the land of his birth, India. Bob Miglani was stressed out, burnt out, and stuck until he rediscovered the enduring lessons of his childhood: celebrate impermanence, serve others, and move forward no matter what. Bob's message: chaos isn't going away--embrace it!
Download or read book Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering written by Peter F. Pelz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book reports on innovative methods, technologies and strategies for mastering uncertainty in technical systems. Despite the fact that current research on uncertainty is mainly focusing on uncertainty quantification and analysis, this book gives emphasis to innovative ways to master uncertainty in engineering design, production and product usage alike. It gathers authoritative contributions by more than 30 scientists reporting on years of research in the areas of engineering, applied mathematics and law, thus offering a timely, comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of theories and methods for quantifying data, model and structural uncertainty, and of fundamental strategies for mastering uncertainty. It covers key concepts such as robustness, flexibility and resilience in detail. All the described methods, technologies and strategies have been validated with the help of three technical systems, i.e. the Modular Active Spring-Damper System, the Active Air Spring and the 3D Servo Press, which have been in turn developed and tested during more than ten years of cooperative research. Overall, this book offers a timely, practice-oriented reference guide to graduate students, researchers and professionals dealing with uncertainty in the broad field of mechanical engineering.
Download or read book The Belief in Intuition written by Adriana Alfaro Altamirano and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the Western tradition, it was the philosophers Henri Bergson and Max Scheler who laid out and explored the nonrational power of "intuition" at work in human beings that plays a key role in orienting their thinking and action within the world. As author Adriana Alfaro Altamirano notes, Bergon's and Scheler's philosophical explorations, which paralleled similar developments by other modernist writers, artists, and political actors of the early twentieth century, can yield fruitful insights into the ideas and passions that animate politics in our own time. The Belief in Intuition shows that intuition (as Bergson and Scheler understood it) leads, first and foremost, to a conception of freedom that is especially suited for dealing with hierarchy, uncertainty, and alterity. Such a conception of freedom is grounded in a sense of individuality that remains true to its "inner multiplicity," thus providing a distinct contrast to and critique of the liberal notion of the self. Focusing on the complex inner lives that drive human action, as Bergson and Scheler did, leads us to appreciate the moral and empirical limits of liberal devices that mean to regulate our actions "from the outside." Such devices, like the law, may not only carry pernicious effects for freedom but, more troublingly, oftentimes "erase their traces," concealing the very ways in which they are detrimental to a richer experience of subjectivity. According to Alfaro Altamirano, Bergson's and Scheler's conception of intuition and personal authority puts contemporary discussions about populism in a different light: It shows that liberalism would only at its own peril deny the anthropological, moral, and political importance of the bearers of charismatic authority. Personal authority thus understood relies on a dense, but elusive, notion of personality, for which personal authority is not only consistent with freedom, but even contributes to it in decisive ways.
Download or read book Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering written by D. V. Griffiths and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-14 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn to use probabilistic techniques to solve problems in geotechnical engineering. The book reviews the statistical theories needed to develop the methodologies and interpret the results. Next, the authors explore probabilistic methods of analysis, such as the first order second moment method, the point estimate method, and random set theory. Examples and case histories guide you step by step in applying the techniques to particular problems.
