Download or read book Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-20 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The extensive use of the US dollar when firms set prices for international trade (dubbed dominant currency pricing) and in their funding (dominant currency financing) has come to the forefront of policy debate, raising questions about how exchange rates work and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility. This Staff Discussion Note documents these features of international trade and finance and explores their implications for how exchange rates can help external rebalancing and buffer macroeconomic shocks.

Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing written by Ding Ding and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2022-02-04 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a variety of exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate between the tourism origin and destination countries, the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar is also an important driver of tourism flows and pricing. The effect of US dollar pricing is stronger for tourism destination countries with higher dollar borrowing, indicating a complementarity between dominant currency pricing and financing. Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) play only a minor role for the average country, but are important for tourism-dependent countries and those with a high concentration of tourists. The importance of the dollar exchange rate represents a strong piece of evidence of dominant currency pricing (DCP) in the international trade of services and suggests that the benefits of exchange rate flexibility for tourism-dependent countries may be weaker than previously thought.

Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm written by Camila Casas and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer's currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) terms of trade are stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports and export expansions following depreciations are weak. Using merged firm level and customs data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm and reject the alternatives of producer currency and local currency pricing.

Download or read book Dominant currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation written by Georgios Georgiadis and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy co-ordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing (PCP) and local-currency pricing (LCP). In the model, under DCP the output spillovers from shocks that appreciate the US dollar multilaterally decline with an economy's export-import US dollar pricing share differential, i.e. the difference between the share of an economy's exports and imports that are priced in the dominant currency. Underlying this prediction is a change in an economy's net exports in response to multilateral changes in the US dollar exchange rate that arises because of differences in the extent to which exports and imports are priced in the dominant currency. We then confront this prediction of DCP with the data in a sample of up to 46 advanced and emerging market economies for the time period from 1995 to 2018. Specifically, controlling for other cross-border transmission channels, we document that consistent with the prediction from DCP the output spillovers from US dollar appreciation correlate negatively with recipient economies' export-import US dollar invoicing share differentials. We document that these findings are robust to considering US demand, US monetary policy and exogenous exchange rate shocks as a trigger of US dollar appreciation, as well as to accounting for the role of commodity trade in US dollar invoicing.

Download or read book Currencies Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.

Download or read book Introducing Dominant Currency Pricing in the ECB s Global Macroeconomic Model written by Georgios Georgiadis and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dominant Currency Pricing written by Minkyu Son and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: English Abstract: Using product-level data for Korean exports from 2000 to 2021, this paper examines the determinants of invoicing currency in international trade. We obtain robust evidence of the two underlying motives in export currency choice. First is strategic complementarities. Korean exports tend to be invoiced in a currency that is predominantly used by competitors in the market. Second is real hedging. Industries that rely on imported inputs denominated in a certain currency are more likely to invoice their exports in the currency of importing. These two channels would serve to maintain the Dominant Currency Pricing (DCP), in which just few currencies such as the US dollar play an outsized role in global trade. To further document the role of these two motives, we conduct a novel event study on the establishment of a direct foreign exchange market for the Korean won and the Chinese renminbi in 2014. The direct foreign exchange market stimulated renminbi invoicing among Korean exports, particularly more to destinations with high market shares of Chinese exporters, and more from Korean industries relying on renminbi-denominated imported inputs. Finally, as a key implication of invoicing currency, we confirm its close link with the degree of exchange rate pass-through. The destination prices of Korean exports are more sensitive to the dollar-destination currency exchange rate than the exchange rate between trading partners, due to its high reliance on dollars in export invoicing.

Download or read book The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-11 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide evidence of a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms’ maturity structure of foreign currency debt around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Quantitatively, the dominant currency financing channel explains a significant part of the external adjustment process in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant currency, instead of the producer’s currency, mutes the effect of dominant currency financing on trade flows.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Download or read book The Dollar Trap written by Eswar S. Prasad and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-25 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.

Download or read book The Exchange Rate Pass Through to Import and Export Prices written by Ehsan U. Choudhri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using both regression- and VAR-based estimates, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices for a large number of countries is incomplete and larger than the pass-through to export prices. Previous studies have reported similar results, which give rise to the puzzle that while local currency pricing is needed to account for incomplete import price pass-through, it would not imply a lower export price pass-through. Recent explanations of this puzzle have emphasized markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes. This paper suggests an alternative explanation based on the presence of both producer and local currency pricing. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper shows that a mix of producer and local currency pricing can explain the pass-through evidence even with a constant markup. The model can also explain the observed exchange rate and inflation variability as well as the fact that the regression and VAR estimates tend to be similar.

Download or read book Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade written by Mr. David Cook and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-11 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.

Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Gita Gopinath and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Download or read book How Global Currencies Work written by Barry Eichengreen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. In fact, they show that multiple international and reserve currencies have coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance before 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s postwar dominance. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, including how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.

Download or read book The Unloved Dollar Standard written by Ronald I. McKinnon and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Th world dollar standard greatly facilitates international exchange. Since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1945, the dollar has been the key currency for clearing international payments among banks, including government interventions to set exchange rates. IT is the dominant currency for invoicing trade in primary commodities and official exchange reserves.