Download or read book Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty written by Craig R. Fox and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1 in Essays in Judgment and Decision Making, Brun, W., Kirkebøen, G. and Montgomery, H., eds. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Dimensions of Uncertainty in Communication Engineering written by Ezio Biglieri and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2022-07-06 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dimensions of Uncertainty in Communication Engineering is a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the problems of nonaleatory uncertainty and the mathematical tools needed to solve them. The book gathers together tools derived from statistics, information theory, moment theory, interval analysis and probability boxes, dependence bounds, nonadditive measures, and Dempster–Shafer theory. While the book is mainly devoted to communication engineering, the techniques described are also of interest to other application areas, and commonalities to these are often alluded to through a number of references to books and research papers. This is an ideal supplementary book for courses in wireless communications, providing techniques for addressing epistemic uncertainty, as well as an important resource for researchers and industry engineers. Students and researchers in other fields such as statistics, financial mathematics, and transport theory will gain an overview and understanding on these methods relevant to their field. Uniquely brings together a variety of tools derived from statistics, information theory, moment theory, interval analysis and probability boxes, dependence bounds, nonadditive measures, and Dempster—Shafer theory Focuses on the essentials of various, wide-ranging methods with references to journal articles where more detail can be found if required Includes MIMO-related results throughout

Download or read book Perspectives on Thinking Judging and Decision Making written by Karl Halvor Teigen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives insights into the most recent developments in research on judgement and decision-making. It contains contributions from some of the best-known experts in this broad field. The book is written for a wide audience and is of interest for anyone who wants to understand and improve his or her ability to make appropriate judgements and decisions. The different chapters cover a great variety of topics related to probability judgements and risk perception, cognitive and emotional processes underlying judgement, and the pragmatics of choice behaviour along with related aspects of social cognition. The different chapters, written by researchers from many countries and from different domains including psychology, linguistics, business administration and marketing, reflect the multi-disciplinary character of the book.

Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Reduction by Using Algebraic Inequalities written by Michael T. Todinov and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-06-02 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.

Download or read book Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Water Resources Modeling written by Philippe Renard and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.

Download or read book Uncertain written by Maggie Jackson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2023-11-07 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Selection of The Next Big Idea Club! "Maggie Jackson’s incisive and timely book is a provocative exploration of the surprising benefits of not knowing. . . and shows how this state of mind can jolt us from intellectual complacency and foster creativity, resilience, and mutual understanding. Uncertain is a triumphant ode to the wisdom of being unsure.” – Daniel H. Pink, #1 New York Times-bestselling author of The Power of Regret, Drive, and When "With cutting-edge science and insights both surprising and practical, Uncertain shows how cultivating an open and unsettled mindset can help us to spark curiosity, compassion, and creativity." – Gretchen Rubin, New York Times-bestselling author of The Happiness Project and Life in Five Senses "…remarkable and persuasive…" —Library Journal A revolutionary guide to flourishing in times of flux and angst by harnessing the overlooked power of our uncertainty. In an era of terrifying unpredictability, we race to address complex crises with quick, sure algorithms, bullet points, and tweets. How could we find the clarity and vision so urgently needed today by being unsure? Uncertain is about the triumph of doing just that. A scientific adventure tale set on the front lines of a volatile era, this epiphany of a book by award-winning author Maggie Jackson shows us how to skillfully confront the unexpected and the unknown, and how to harness not-knowing in the service of wisdom, invention, mutual understanding, and resilience. Long neglected as a topic of study and widely treated as a shameful flaw, uncertainty is revealed to be a crucial gadfly of the mind, jolting us from the routine and the assumed into a space for exploring unseen meaning. Far from luring us into inertia, uncertainty is the mindset most needed in times of flux and a remarkable antidote to the narrow-mindedness of our day. In laboratories, political campaigns, and on the frontiers of artificial intelligence, Jackson meets the pioneers decoding the surprising gifts of being unsure. Each chapter examines a mode of uncertainty-in-action, from creative reverie to the dissent that spurs team success. Step by step, the art and science of uncertainty reveal being unsure as a skill set for incisive thinking and day-to-day flourishing.

Download or read book Handbook of Risk Theory written by Rafaela Hillerbrand and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 1209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.

Download or read book Perspectives on European Earthquake Engineering and Seismology written by Atilla Ansal and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-08-28 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects 4 keynote and 15 theme lectures presented at the 2nd European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (2ECEES), held in Istanbul, Turkey, from August 24 to 29, 2014. The conference was organized by the Turkish Earthquake Foundation - Earthquake Engineering Committee and Prime Ministry, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency under the auspices of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering (EAEE) and European Seismological Commission (ESC). The book’s nineteen state-of-the-art chapters were written by the most prominent researchers in Europe and address a comprehensive collection of topics on earthquake engineering, as well as interdisciplinary subjects such as engineering seismology and seismic risk assessment and management. Further topics include engineering seismology, geotechnical earthquake engineering, seismic performance of buildings, earthquake-resistant engineering structures, new techniques and technologies, and managing risk in seismic regions. The book also presents the First Professor Inge Lehmann Distinguished Award Lecture given by Prof. Shamita Das in honor of Prof. Dr. Inge Lehmann. The aim of this work is to present the state-of-the art and latest practices in the fields of earthquake engineering and seismology, with Europe’s most respected researchers addressing recent and ongoing developments while also proposing innovative avenues for future research and development. Given its cutting-edge conten t and broad spectrum of topics, the book offers a unique reference guide for researchers in these fields. Audience: This book is of interest to civil engineers in the fields of geotechnical and structural earthquake engineering; scientists and researchers in the fields of seismology, geology and geophysics. Not only scientists, engineers and students, but also those interested in earthquake hazard assessment and mitigation will find in this book the most recent advances.

Download or read book Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty written by Daniel J. Walters and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In nine studies, we find that investors intuitively distinguish two independent dimensions of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty that they attribute to missing knowledge, skill, or information, versus aleatory uncertainty that they attribute to chance or stochastic processes. Investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher in epistemicness (knowability) are more sensitive to their available information when choosing whether or not to invest, and are more likely to reduce uncertainty by seeking guidance from experts. In contrast, investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher in aleatoriness (randomness) are more sensitive to their risk preference when choosing whether or not to invest, and are more likely to reduce uncertainty through diversification. We show, further, that investors' attributions of uncertainty can be perturbed by the format in which historical information is presented: charts displaying absolute stock prices from one quarter to the next promote perceptions of epistemicness and greater willingness to pay for financial advice, whereas charts displaying the change in stock price from one quarter to the next promote perceptions of aleatoriness and a greater tendency to diversify.

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Download or read book Computational and Decision Methods in Economics and Business written by Anna Maria Gil-Lafuente and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-27 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents different topics related to innovation, complexity, uncertainty, modeling and simulation, fuzzy logic, decision-making, aggregation operators, business and economic applications, among others. The chapters are the results of research presented at the International Workshop "Innovation, Complexity and Uncertainty in Economics and Business", held in Barcelona, in November 2019, by The Ibero-American Network for Competitiveness, Innovation and Development (REDCID in Spanish) and the Royal Academy of Economic and Financial Sciences (RACEF in Spanish). These papers are useful for junior and senior researchers in the area of economics and business.

Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Industrial Work Organizational Psychology 3v written by Deniz S Ones and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 1921 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this best-selling Handbook presents a fully updated and expanded overview of research, providing the latest perspectives on the analysis of theories, techniques, and methods used by industrial, work, and organizational psychologists. Building on the strengths of the first edition, key additions to this edition include in-depth historical chapter overviews of professional contexts across the globe, along with new chapters on strategic human resource management; corporate social responsibility; diversity, stress, emotions and mindfulness in the workplace; environmental sustainability at work; aging workforces, among many others. Providing a truly global approach and authoritative overview, this three-volume Handbook is an indispensable resource and essential reading for professionals, researchers and students in the field. Volume One: Personnel Psychology and Employee Performance Volume Two: Organizational Psychology Volume Three: Managerial Psychology and Organizational Approaches

Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Industrial Work Organizational Psychology written by Deniz S Ones and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2017-12-04 with total page 1073 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first volume in The SAGE Handbook of Industrial, Organizational and Work Psychology introduces key concepts in personnel and employee performance from cognitive ability and the psychological predictors used in assessments to employee and team values. The editor and contributors present a clear overview of key research in the areas of behaviour change and how to assess individual job performance – making Volume I indispensable for anyone working in or studying Human Resource Management.

Download or read book Graded Modality written by Daniel Lassiter and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-19 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores graded expressions of modality, a rich and underexplored source of insight into modal semantics. Studies on modal language to date have largely focussed on a small and non-representative subset of expressions, namely modal auxiliaries such as must, might, and ought. Here, Daniel Lassiter argues that we should expand the conversation to include gradable modals such as more likely than, quite possible, and very good. He provides an introduction to qualitative and degree semantics for graded meaning, using the Representational Theory of Measurement to expose the complementarity between these apparently opposed perspectives on gradation. The volume explores and expands the typology of scales among English adjectives and uses the result to shed light on the meanings of a variety of epistemic and deontic modals. It also demonstrates that modality is deeply intertwined with probability and expected value, connecting modal semantics with the cognitive science of uncertainty and choice.

Download or read book Foundations of Metacognition written by Michael J. Beran and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-09-06 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Metacognition refers to the awareness an individual has of their own mental processes. In the past thirty years metacognition research has become a rapidly growing field of interdisciplinary research within the cognitive sciences. This book brings together leading cognitive scientists to consider some of the key questions regarding this phenomenon.

Download or read book Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-08 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modeling and Decision Making, IUKM 2015, held in Nha Trang, Vietnam, in October 2015. The 40 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions and are presented together with three keynote and invited talks. The papers provide a wealth of new ideas and report both theoretical and applied research on integrated uncertainty modeling and management