Download or read book Development of a Time dependent Audio visual Stated Choice Method of Data Collection for Hurricane Evacuation Behavior written by Ravindra Gudishala and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic written by Haoqiang Fu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time - such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In this study, dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation were developed with two methodologies: survival analysis and sequential choice model. Using survival analysis, the time before evacuation from a pending hurricane is modeled with those that do not evacuate considered as censored observations. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables and a Piecewise Exponential model were estimated. In the sequential choice model, the decision to evacuate in the face of an oncoming hurricane is considered as a series of binary choices over time. A sequential logit model and a sequential complementary log-log model were developed. Each model is capable of predicting the probability of a household evacuating at each time period before hurricane landfall as a function of the household's socio-economic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane (such as distance to the storm), and policy decisions (such as the issuing of evacuation orders). Three datasets were used in this study. They were data from southwest Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew, data from South Carolina collected following Hurricane Floyd, and stated preference survey data collected from the New Orleans area. Based on the analysis, the sequential logit model was found to be the best alternative for modeling dynamic travel demand for hurricane evacuation. The sequential logit model produces predictions which are superior to those of the current evacuation participation rate models with response curves. Transfer of the sequential logit model estimated on the Floyd data to the Andrew data demonstrated that the sequential logit model is capable of estimating dynamic travel demand in a different environment than the one in which it was estimated with reasonable accuracy. However, more study is required on the transferability of models of this type, as well as the development of procedures that would allow the updating of transferred model parameters to better reflect local evacuation behavior.
Download or read book Prediction of Time dependent Population Behavior During Hurricane Evacuations written by Prosper Kosi Anyidoho and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The large uncertainty in population behavior with regards to how many people leave, when, from where, and to where, is a key challenge in planning hurricane evacuations. Several empirical and theoretical studies have sought to understand evacuation behavior but few have focused on developing models for predicting population evacuation behavior for future applications. In this study, we improve hurricane evacuation behavior prediction through advances in modeling and data, and offer a comprehensive evaluation of predictive power that other researchers might adopt in evaluating their models. Specifically, we modify and apply a recently introduced dynamic discrete choice framework on survey data collected in a consistent format across four hurricanes. We also take advantage of the dynamic nature of the model and include more hurricane and forecast attributes. The final set of explanatory variables can be obtained at the regional scale; hence our model can be applied in the future for prediction. Through cross validation, out-of-sample predictive power of the model is evaluated across multiple metrics, including prediction of aggregate evacuation rates, individual behavior, and evacuation timing. Cross validation results are also compared with existing statistical models from literature. At the aggregate level across the four hurricanes, the total number of evacuations was predicted with only 1% error. Individual household level results suggest 70% and 72% accurate prediction of evacuees and non-evacuees, respectively. The mean absolute departure time error is approximately only 2 hours across the population. Results across all evaluation metrics imply our model performs better when compared to existing models in the literature.
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Modeling written by Lei Fang (Engineer) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane evacuation has attracted renewed emphasis since hurricane Katrina in 2005. Every coastal state is establishing their evacuation guidelines and searching new methods to improve evacuations. In this dissertation, first, hurricane evacuation of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia is investigated using large-scale regional mesoscopic traffic simulation models. Fourteen evacuation scenarios consisting of various combinations of storm categories and traffic control strategies are evaluated. The evaluation of scenarios provided information on the clearance time, average travel times, bottleneck locations, and congestion durations. The major findings from scenario evaluations include: (1) The differences in participation rates (100% versus 70%) did not impact the clearance times in a Category 1 storm evacuation, but have significant impact in a Category 3 storm evacuation, (2) The status (open or close) of a critical tunnel crossing, the Monitor-Merrimac Memorial Bridge-Tunnel did not have impact on the evacuation performance in Category 1 and 2 storm. However, opening the tunnel would improve the performance in a Category 3 storm, (3) The clearance times derived from simulations can be used to determine when to issue evacuation orders for various storm intensities, and (4) The bottleneck locations and durations identified for each evacuation scenario can be used to allocate the limited traffic monitoring equipment during an evacuation. The second focus of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of assumptions made regarding evacuee route choice on evacuation performance estimates. In the hurricane evacuation literature, very few studies have documented the realistic route choice behavior of evacuees during a hurricane. Due to this lack of realistic route choice behavior data, modelers make assumptions about the route choice behavior and traffic assignment. User-equilibrium traffic assignment has been extensively used in past evacuation studies. In this dissertation, realistic route choice behavior was determined by evaluating findings of a few published studies. The impact of route choice behavior on evacuation performance, especially travel times, is then investigated using the regional simulation model of the Hampton Roads region. The analysis found that the user-equilibrium traffic assignment significantly underestimates the travel times during an evacuation. The extent of underestimation of evacuation travel times depends on the total evacuation demand (a function of storm intensity), and the percent of evacuees willing to use en-route information to seek alternate routes when facing congestion. For the three en-route percentages reported in the literature i.e., 30%, 50%, and 70%, the UE travel times were 58%, 42%, and 33% lower than actual travel times realized in a Category 1; 94%, 71%, and 57% lower in a Category 2; and 90%, 69%, and 54% lower in a Category 3 evacuation. These findings illustrate the need to collect real-world data on evacuee route choice in order to build accurate evacuation models. The third focus of dissertation is to propose a procedure to assess the benefit of adding additional intermediate crossovers on a contra flow facility. Contra flow operation in which the direction of traffic on one or more travel lanes is reversed in order to increase the capacity of a road network is becoming a critical component of the evacuation plans of coastal states. Several coastal states have a contra flow plan in place for evacuation, however only a few states have intermediate crossovers between the origin and termination points. The impact of intermediate crossovers on network performance has not been well investigated in previous research. This dissertation investigates the benefits of having intermediate crossovers between regular and contra flow lanes. Based on the investigation, it can be concluded that adding intermediate crossovers did improve network performance for medium and high evacuation demand situations. Adding intermediate crossovers for low demand situations did not improve the network performance and thus any considerations for intermediate crossovers for the low demand evacuations must be based solely on providing access to road-side services (gas, food, and others). For high and medium demand situations and for the road network studied in this section, a 28% improvement in the average travel time was observed by deploying four intermediate crossovers out of the 44 potential crossover locations. The iterative elimination procedure proposed in this dissertation is the first attempt in the literature to provide a systematic approach to determine the critical intermediate crossover locations within reasonable computation times.
Download or read book Development of a Mode and Destination Type Joint Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation written by Ruijie Bian and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book LTRC Technical Summary Report 408 written by Chester Wilmot and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Behavior Analysis Based on Mobile Location Data written by Hao Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Florence in 2018 was one of the worst in North Carolina history. The catastrophic flooding and infrastructure damage endangered millions of residents and visitors. The focus of this paper is the development of methods to understand evacuation behavior to aid in the development of future evacuation plans and emergency responses. While existing hurricane evacuation studies primarily use statistical models based on survey data, we develop a new approach using location data passively collected by cellphones. By analyzing location information from about 18,000 anonymous and opted-in users before and during the hurricane, we discern their home census area and whether they evacuated, and if they evacuated, where they evacuated too. About 91% of inferred home areas are found to be located on residential land parcels. North Carolina has 100 counties. Of those 100 counties, about 21 counties were in areas where the condition warranted the consideration of evacuation. In those 21 counites the evacuation rate was about 56%. In about six coastal counties, conditions were most severe and for those six counties, the evacuation rate was found to be about 67%, which is consistent with survey data collected from 1,421 respondents.
Download or read book Research Methods in Human Development written by Paul C. Cozby and published by WCB/McGraw-Hill. This book was released on 1989 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For undergradute social science majors. A textbook on the interpretation and use of research. Annotation copyright Book News, Inc. Portland, Or.
Download or read book Development of a Methodology to Delineate Hurricane Evacuation Zones written by Nandagopal Meduri and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Decision Making Related to Incident Delays During Hurricane Evacuations written by Robert Michael Robinson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guide for All Hazard Emergency Operations Planning written by Kay C. Goss and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1998-05 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meant to aid State & local emergency managers in their efforts to develop & maintain a viable all-hazard emergency operations plan. This guide clarifies the preparedness, response, & short-term recovery planning elements that warrant inclusion in emergency operations plans. It offers the best judgment & recommendations on how to deal with the entire planning process -- from forming a planning team to writing the plan. Specific topics of discussion include: preliminary considerations, the planning process, emergency operations plan format, basic plan content, functional annex content, hazard-unique planning, & linking Federal & State operations.
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Analysis Based on Smartphone Location Data written by Zhuoqun Tao and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, hurricane evacuation behavior is investigated based on survey data. Later, various types of data, such as call detail records (CDRs), Global Position System (GPS) data and geo-tagged twitter data are widely used in hurricane related studies. However, few studies have taken advantage of smartphone location data to explore the evacuation behavior during hurricanes. In this study, we analyze the evacuation behavior of residents along the eastern coast of North Carolina based on large-scale, privacy-preserving smartphone location data before and during Hurricane Florence. We first reproduce an existing method and then propose two new models to identify home location for each user based on the processed check-in data. The accuracy of the home locations we identified is assessed by the North Carolina parcel dataset. We find that 89.96% and 90.61% of home locations derived from our two models are in residential areas. Further, a distance-based method is applied to detect evacuees from the trajectory check-ins during the hurricane study period. The evacuation rate estimated is validated by a web-based survey deployed after Hurricane Florence.
Download or read book Evacuate Or Not written by Adithya Raam Sankar and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent hurricanes in the Atlantic region of southern United States triggered a series of evacuation orders in the coastal cities of Florida, Texas and Georgia. While some of these were voluntary evacuations, most of them were mandatory orders that the residents had to follow. In spite of the government asking people to vacate their homes for their own safety, many did not evacuate. Various reasons motivate individuals to choose to stay or vacate. We aim to understand the factors involved in this decision-making process and model these in a partially observable Markov decision process, which predicts whether a person will evacuate or not given his or her current situation. We consider the features of the particular hurricane, the situation that the individual is experiencing, and demographic factors that influence the decision making of individuals. The model is represented as a dynamic influence diagram and evaluated on data collected through a comprehensive survey of hurricane-impacted individuals. We also propose an improvised method of k-means clustering for tweets that considers the context of the text rather than just the cosine similarity.
Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1970-06 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
Download or read book Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans written by United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101 provides guidelines on developing emergency operations plans (EOP). It promotes a common understanding of the fundamentals of risk-informed planning and decision making to help planners examine a hazard or threat and produce integrated, coordinated, and synchronized plans. The goal of CPG 101 is to make the planning process routine across all phases of emergency management and for all homeland security mission areas. This Guide helps planners at all levels of government in their efforts to develop and maintain viable all-hazards, all-threats EOPs. Accomplished properly, planning provides a methodical way to engage the whole community in thinking through the life cycle of a potential crisis, determining required capabilities, and establishing a framework for roles and responsibilities. It shapes how a community envisions and shares a desired outcome, selects effective ways to achieve it, and communicates expected results. Each jurisdiction's plans must reflect what that community will do to address its specific risks with the unique resources it has or can obtain.
Download or read book Modeling Destination Choice and Measuring the Transferability of Hurricane Evacuation Patterns written by Naveen Kumar Modali and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Use of a Behavioral Health Framework to Assess Perceptions of Hurricane Evacuation Support Services in New Orleans Louisiana written by Aubry Kyle and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation presents research conducted during the hurricane seasons of 2017 and 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The research’s purpose was to assess citizen perceptions of evacuation support services offered during mandatory evacuation events. A prospective quantitative survey and qualitative, open-ended, semi-structured interview assessed perceptions. Both research methods were designed and assessed using the constructs of the Health Belief Model, a public health model created to assess perceived barriers, benefits, risks, severity, self-efficacy, and cues to action regarding health programming. Quantitative research yielded 211 surveys, representing opinions of New Orleans residents within 1-km Euclidian distance of an evacuation pick-up marker. Qualitative research yielded 20 interviews detailing perceptions of evacuation support in New Orleans across Evacuspot zones. Quantitative findings found that: social support systems influence decisions to evacuate and influence varies by race; gendered preference for evacuating in New Orleans is higher for males; pet ownership lowers evacuation preference; the elderly have a lower preference for evacuation; disability status does not impact evacuation preference; there is no association found in awareness of evacuation assistance programming by education level, but there is an association by race; there is no association found between homeowners and non-homeowners in self-reported evacuation compliance; and, trust in the City of New Orleans varies significantly by race and education level. Qualitative findings included perceived barriers of pet ownership, finances, age, anxiety, property ownership, traffic, lack of preparedness messaging, low levels of trust in city services, and misunderstanding of programming; perceived benefits of personal comfort; risk perceptions that were influenced by perceptions of city competency; low perceived self-efficacy to use evacuation programming; few local cues to action to utilize programming; and perceptions of severity influenced by x misunderstandings of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Results led to conclusions regarding the current prospective efficacy of City-Assisted Evacuation in New Orleans, and enabled recommendations for improving programming strategies. This research seeks to move evacuation behavior research from vulnerability-factor based research to multi-variable, intersectional, community informed assessment strategies, and contributes to literature on proactive emergency management strategies and expressed preference approach research.
