Download or read book Determinants of Spread Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt written by Peter Rowland and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Evolution and Determinants of Emerging Market Credit Spreads in the 1990s written by Steven Kamin and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops measures of emerging market credit spreads for the 1990s, based on data on new bond issues and bank loans, that cover a broader range of borrowers than the Brady bond spreads most commonly used to date.
Download or read book The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads written by Nazim Belhocine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread regression model applied to a panel of 26 emerging market economies. We find that debt sustainability is an important determinant of spreads. In addition, using a panel smooth transition regression model, we find that the sensitivity of spreads to debt sustainability doubles as public debt increases above 45 percent of GDP. These results suggest that market interest rates react more to debt sustainability concerns in a country with a high level of debt compared to a country with a low level of debt.
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Bond Spread written by Hong G. Min and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: March 1998 Macroeconomic variables matter and so does liquidity. External shocks (international interest rates) appear not to matter. In the 1990s international bond issues from developing countries surged dramatically, becoming one of the fastest-growing devices for financing external development. Their terms have improved as institutional investors have become more interested in emerging market securities and better economic prospects in a number of developing countries. But little is known about what determines the pricing and thus the yield spreads of new emerging market bond issues. Min investigates what determines bond spreads in emerging markets in the 1990s. He finds that strong macroeconomic fundamentals in a country-such as low domestic inflation rates, improved terms of trade, and increased foreign assets-are associated with lower yield spreads. By contrast, higher yield spreads are associated with weak liquidity variables in a country, such as a high debt-to-GDP ratio, a low ratio of foreign reserves to GDP, a low (high) export (import) growth rate, and a high debt-service ratio. At the same time, external shocks-as measured by the international interest rate-matter little in the determination of bond spreads. In the aggregate, Latin American countries have a negative yield curve. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study international transmission of financial crises in emerging economies.
Download or read book A Century of Sovereign Ratings written by Norbert Gaillard and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial difficulties experienced by Greece since 2009 serve as a reminder that countries (i.e., sovereigns) may default on their debt. Many observers considered the financial turmoil was behind us because major advanced countries had adopted stimulus packages to prevent banks from going bankrupt. However, there are rising doubts about the creditworthiness of several advanced countries that participated in the bailouts. In this uncertain context, it is particularly crucial to be knowledgeable about sovereign ratings. This book provides the necessary broad overview, which will be of interest to both economists and investors alike. Chapter 1 presents the main issues that are addressed in this book. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 provide the key notions to understand sovereign ratings. Chapter 2 presents an overview of sovereign rating activity since the first such ratings were assigned in 1918. Chapter 3 analyzes the meaning of sovereign ratings and the significance of rating scales; it also describes the refinement of credit rating policies and tools. Chapter 4 focuses on the sovereign rating process. Chapters 5 and 6 open the black box of sovereign ratings. Chapter 5 compares sovereign rating methodologies in the interwar years with those in the modern era. After examining how rating agencies have amended their methodologies since the 1990s, Chapter 6 scrutinizes rating disagreements between credit rating agencies (CRAs). Chapters 7 and 8 measure the performances of sovereign ratings by computing default rates and accuracy ratios: Chapter 7 looks at the interwar years and Chapter 8 at the modern era. The two chapters assess which CRA assigns the most accurate ratings during the respective periods. Chapters 9 and 10 compare the perception of sovereign risk by the CRAs and market participants. Chapter 9 focuses on the relation between JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global spreads and emerging countries’ sovereign ratings for the period 1993–2007. Chapter 10 compares the eurozone members’ sovereign ratings with Credit Default Swap-Implied Ratings (CDS-IRs) during the Greek debt crisis of November 2009–May 2010.
Download or read book Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings written by Guillermo Larraín and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging market economies. We assess how sovereign risk affects corporate access to international capital markets, in the form of external credit (loans and bond issuances) and equity issuances. The study first analyzes the impact of sovereign debt crises during the 1980s and 1990s. It goes on to examine the 1993 to 2007 period, using additional measures of sovereign risk-sovereign bond spreads and sovereign ratings-as explanatory variables. Overall, we find that sovereign default risk is a crucial determinant of private sector access to capital, be it external debt or equity. We also find that crisis resolution patterns matter and that defaults towards private creditors have stronger adverse consequences than defaults to official creditors.
Download or read book Credit Ratings and Sovereign Debt written by B. Paudyn and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-19 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bartholomew Paudyn investigates how governments across the globe struggle to constitute the authoritative knowledge underpinning the political economy of creditworthiness and what the (neoliberal) 'fiscal normality' means for democratic governance.
Download or read book Panama written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-15 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of achieving investment grade on borrowing costs for the sovereign and the private sector. This study provides background information on sovereign credit ratings and compares Panama’s key macroeconomic and institutional characteristics with those of other emerging markets. Statistical evidence on the reduction in sovereign spreads associated with obtaining investment grade status and the impact of the sovereign’s upgrade on corporate financing costs were also discussed. The model is estimated using a variety of panel regression techniques.
Download or read book Determinants of Sovereign Risk written by Jens Hilscher and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on emerging market sovereign credit spreads. We find that the volatility of terms of trade in particular has a statistically and economically significant effect on spreads. This is robust to instrumenting terms of trade with a country-specific commodity price index. Our measures of country fundamentals have substantial explanatory power, even controlling for global factors and credit ratings. We also estimate default probabilities in a hazard model and find that model implied spreads capture a significant part of the variation in observed spreads out-of-sample. The fit is better for lower credit quality borrowers.
Download or read book Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirements on Lending to Emerging Market Economies Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord written by Brieuc Monfort and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ratings react procyclically to crisis indicators. Ratings deteriorate if the real effective exchange rate depreciates, in contrast with the positive effect on overall debt service capacity depreciations are normally supposed to have. Simulations show that linking capital requirements to ratings would have drastically increased these requirements during the crisis periods after decreasing them in the run up to the crises. Simulations suggest modest efficiency gains of using sovereign credit ratings for capital requirements on emerging market lending.
Download or read book The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-26 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by Rob Quail and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Download or read book The Evolution and Determinants of Emerging Markets Credit Spreads in the 1990s written by Steven Kamin and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.
Download or read book The Evolution and Determinants of Emerging Markets Credit Spreads in the 1990s written by Steven B. Kamin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops measures of emerging market credit spreads for the 1990s, based on data on new bond issues and bank loans, that cover a broader range of borrowers than the Brady bond spreads most commonly used to date. These measures are used to identify the impacts of credit ratings, maturity and currency denomination on spreads. We find important regional differences in spreads across the developing world, even after controlling for risk and maturity. We also identify the evolution of spreads during the 1990s up until the advent of the Asian financial crisis, holding other determinants constant, and find that emerging market spreads declined by more than can be explained by improvements in risk. However, for emerging market instruments with relatively favourable credit ratings, trends in spreads differed considerably from those experienced by Brady bonds. Finally, and in contrast to much market commentary, we find that variations in industrial country short-term interest rates explain relatively little of the decline in emerging market bond spreads. Longer-term trends, perhaps reflecting globalisation, along with the temporary impact of the Mexican financial crisis, may have been more important factors in the behaviour of emerging market spreads.
Download or read book Determinants of Spred and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt written by Peter Rowland and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
