Download or read book Decision Trees for Decision Making written by John F. Magee and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Decision Tree written by Thomas Goetz and published by Rodale. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For all the talk about personalized medicine, our health care system remains a top-down, doctor-driven system where individuals are too often bit players in their own health decisions. In The Decision Tree, Thomas Goetz proposes a new strategy for thinking about health, one that applies cutting-edge technology to put us at the center of the equation and explains how the new frontier of health care can impact each of our lives.
Download or read book Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation written by Donald Dibra and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2015-04-28 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work presents the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach when dealing with the economic valuation of projects which are subjected to risks and uncertainties. The Net Present Value of a project is usually used as an investment decision parameter. Using deterministic models to calculate a project’s Net Present Value neglects the risky and uncertain nature of real life projects and consequently leads to useless valuation results. Realistic valuation models need to use probability density distributions for the input parameters and certain probabilities for the occurrence of specific events during the life time of a project in combination with the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach. After a short introduction a brief explanation of the traditional project valuation methods is given. The main focus of this work lies in using the Net Present Value method as a basic valuation tool in conjunction with the Monte Carlo Simulation technique and the Decision Tree Analysis approach to form a comprehensive method for project valuation under risk and uncertainty. The extensive project valuation methodology introduced is applied on two fictional projects, one from the pharmaceutical sector and one from the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Both industries deal with high risks, high uncertainties and high costs, but also high rewards. The example from the pharmaceutical industry illustrates very well how the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis method, results in a well-diversified portfolio of new drugs with the highest reward at minimum possible risk. Applying the presented probabilistic project valuation approach on the oil exploration and production project shows how to reduce the risk of losing big.
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Download or read book What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by John X. Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-07-01 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering the prediction of outcomes for engineering decisions through regression analysis, this succinct and practical reference presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems. The author emphasizes the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. He offers insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff.
Download or read book Decision Making written by Byron M. Roth and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2002-07 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text, written by a philosopher and a social psychologist, emphasizes concrete applications of decision research to problems of everyday living, as well as to business, social, and political issues. The text contains scores of interesting examples and problems for analysis, ranging from personal decisions about medical treatment to Truman's decision to use the atomic bomb. There is no other text with such a wide-ranging coverage, with so practical an orientation, with such clear descriptions of the steps to effective decision making, and with so many end-of-chapter problems for analysis and practice.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Claude Greengard and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the ideal world, major decisions would be made based on complete and reliable information available to the decision maker. We live in a world of uncertainties, and decisions must be made from information which may be incomplete and may contain uncertainty. The key mathematical question addressed in this volume is "how to make decision in the presence of quantifiable uncertainty." The volume contains articles on model problems of decision making process in the energy and power industry when the available information is noisy and/or incomplete. The major tools used in studying these problems are mathematical modeling and optimization techniques; especially stochastic optimization. These articles are meant to provide an insight into this rapidly developing field, which lies in the intersection of applied statistics, probability, operations research, and economic theory. It is hoped that the present volume will provide entry to newcomers into the field, and stimulation for further research.
Download or read book Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan Murphy and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book Foundations Of Decision making Agents Logic Probability And Modality written by Subrata Das and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008-01-03 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This self-contained book provides three fundamental and generic approaches (logical, probabilistic, and modal) to representing and reasoning with agent epistemic states, specifically in the context of decision making. Each of these approaches can be applied to the construction of intelligent software agents for making decisions, thereby creating computational foundations for decision-making agents. In addition, the book introduces a formal integration of the three approaches into a single unified approach that combines the advantages of all the approaches. Finally, the symbolic argumentation approach to decision making developed in this book, combining logic and probability, offers several advantages over the traditional approach to decision making which is based on simple rule-based expert systems or expected utility theory.
Download or read book The Tree of Life and Prosperity written by Michael A. Eisenberg and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2021-08-24 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of Israel’s most successful venture capitalists uses the words and actions of the Hebrew patriarchs to lay the foundations for a modern growth economy based on timeless business principles and values. Entrepreneurs, businessmen, and investors are constantly looking for principles and rules that will pave the way for success. Usually, those at the forefront are successful entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley or legendary Wall Street investors. But the principles of economic growth, wealth creation and preservation were written long before the rise of the modern market economy and its heroes. Michael Eisenberg—one of the most successful venture capitalists in Israel, and one of the first investors in Lemonade, and Wix—reveals in The Tree of Life and Prosperity the eternal principles for successful business, economics, and negotiation hidden in the Torah—and shows their relevance to the modern world we live in.
Download or read book Fuzzy Decision Making In Modeling And Control written by Joao M Costa Sousa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2002-12-03 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making and control are two fields with distinct methods for solving problems, and yet they are closely related. This book bridges the gap between decision making and control in the field of fuzzy decisions and fuzzy control, and discusses various ways in which fuzzy decision making methods can be applied to systems modeling and control.Fuzzy decision making is a powerful paradigm for dealing with human expert knowledge when one is designing fuzzy model-based controllers. The combination of fuzzy decision making and fuzzy control in this book can lead to novel control schemes that improve the existing controllers in various ways. The following applications of fuzzy decision making methods for designing control systems are considered:• Fuzzy decision making for enhancing fuzzy modeling. The values of important parameters in fuzzy modeling algorithms are selected by using fuzzy decision making.• Fuzzy decision making for designing signal-based fuzzy controllers. The controller mappings and the defuzzification steps can be obtained by decision making methods.• Fuzzy design and performance specifications in model-based control. Fuzzy constraints and fuzzy goals are used.• Design of model-based controllers combined with fuzzy decision modules. Human operator experience is incorporated for the performance specification in model-based control.The advantages of bringing together fuzzy control and fuzzy decision making are shown with multiple examples from real and simulated control systems.
Download or read book Decision Making in Service Industries written by Javier Faulin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-08-08 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In real-life scenarios, service management involves complex decision-making processes usually affected by random or stochastic variables. Under such uncertain conditions, the development and use of robust and flexible strategies, algorithms, and methods can provide the quantitative information necessary to make better business decisions. Decision Making in Service Industries: A Practical Approach explores the challenges that must be faced to provide intelligent strategies for efficient management and decision making that will increase your organization’s competitiveness and profitability. The book provides insight and understanding into practical and methodological issues related to decision-making processes under uncertainty in service industries. It examines current and future trends regarding how these decision-making processes can be efficiently performed for better design of service systems by using probabilistic algorithms as well as hybrid and simulation-based approaches. Traditionally, many quantitative tools have been developed to make decisions in production companies. This book explores how to use these tools for making decisions inside service industries. Thus, the authors tackle strategic, tactical, and operational problems in service companies with the help of suitable quantitative models such as heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms, simulation, or queuing theory. Generally speaking, decision making is a hard task in business fields. Making the issue more complex, most service companies’ problems are related to the uncertainty of the service demand. This book sheds light on these types of decision problems. It provides studies that demonstrate the suitability of quantitative methods to make the right decisions. Consequently, this book presents the business analytics needed to make strategic decisions in service industries.
Download or read book Decision Making in Health and Medicine written by M. G. Myriam Hunink and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide for everyone involved in medical decision making to plot a clear course through complex and conflicting benefits and risks.
Download or read book Data Guided Healthcare Decision Making written by Ramalingam Shanmugam and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-31 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book effectively exposes and illustrates the ideas and tools for optimal healthcare decisions taken from evidence.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
Download or read book Applied Decision making in Civil Engineering written by Oliver Kübler and published by vdf Hochschulverlag AG. This book was released on 2007 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
