Download or read book Classic Works of the Dempster Shafer Theory of Belief Functions written by Ronald R. Yager and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-01-22 with total page 813 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a collection of classic research papers on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The book is the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making in economics, engineering, and management. The book includes a foreword reflecting the development of the theory in the last forty years.
Download or read book Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities written by Thomas Augustin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-11 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has beenfurther developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in orderto make the material available and accessible to a wide audience.This will be the first book providing such an introduction,covering core theory and recent developments which can be appliedto many application areas. All authors of individual chapters areleading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high qualityand up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides acomprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includingtheory and applications reflecting the current state if the art.Each chapter is written by experts on the respective topics,including: Sets of desirable gambles; Coherent lower (conditional)previsions; Special cases and links to literature; Decision making;Graphical models; Classification; Reliability and risk assessment;Statistical inference; Structural judgments; Aspects ofimplementation (including elicitation and computation); Models infinance; Game-theoretic probability; Stochastic processes(including Markov chains); Engineering applications. Essential reading for researchers in academia, researchinstitutes and other organizations, as well as practitionersengaged in areas such as risk analysis and engineering.
Download or read book On the belief universal gravitation BUG written by Xiangjun Mi and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Download or read book A Mathematical Theory of Evidence written by Glenn Shafer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.
Download or read book Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems written by Dov M. Gabbay and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reasoning under uncertainty is always based on a specified language or for malism, including its particular syntax and semantics, but also on its associated inference mechanism. In the present volume of the handbook the last aspect, the algorithmic aspects of uncertainty calculi are presented. Theory has suffi ciently advanced to unfold some generally applicable fundamental structures and methods. On the other hand, particular features of specific formalisms and ap proaches to uncertainty of course still influence strongly the computational meth ods to be used. Both general as well as specific methods are included in this volume. Broadly speaking, symbolic or logical approaches to uncertainty and nu merical approaches are often distinguished. Although this distinction is somewhat misleading, it is used as a means to structure the present volume. This is even to some degree reflected in the two first chapters, which treat fundamental, general methods of computation in systems designed to represent uncertainty. It has been noted early by Shenoy and Shafer, that computations in different domains have an underlying common structure. Essentially pieces of knowledge or information are to be combined together and then focused on some particular question or domain. This can be captured in an algebraic structure called valuation algebra which is described in the first chapter. Here the basic operations of combination and focus ing (marginalization) of knowledge and information is modeled abstractly subject to simple axioms.
Download or read book Belief Functions in Business Decisions written by Rajendra P. Srivastava and published by Physica. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on applications of belief functions to business decisions. Section I introduces the intuitive, conceptual and historical development of belief functions. Three different interpretations (the marginally correct approximation, the qualitative model, and the quantitative model) of belief functions are investigated, and rough set theory and structured query language (SQL) are used to express belief function semantics. Section II presents applications of belief functions in information systems and auditing. Included are discussions on how a belief-function framework provides a more efficient and effective audit methodology and also the appropriateness of belief functions to represent uncertainties in audit evidence. The third section deals with applications of belief functions to mergers and acquisitions; financial analysis of engineering enterprises; forecast demand for mobile satellite services; modeling financial portfolios; and economics.
Download or read book Fuzzy Information and Decision Processes written by Madan M. Gupta and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1982 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
Download or read book Modern Methods of Clinical Investigation written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1990-02-01 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The very rapid pace of advances in biomedical research promises us a wide range of new drugs, medical devices, and clinical procedures. The extent to which these discoveries will benefit the public, however, depends in large part on the methods we choose for developing and testing them. Modern Methods of Clinical Investigation focuses on strategies for clinical evaluation and their role in uncovering the actual benefits and risks of medical innovation. Essays explore differences in our current systems for evaluating drugs, medical devices, and clinical procedures; health insurance databases as a tool for assessing treatment outcomes; the role of the medical profession, the Food and Drug Administration, and industry in stimulating the use of evaluative methods; and more. This book will be of special interest to policymakers, regulators, executives in the medical industry, clinical researchers, and physicians.
Download or read book Non Bayesian Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-06 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For quite some time, philosophers, economists, and statisticians have endorsed a view on rational choice known as Bayesianism. The work on this book has grown out of a feeling that the Bayesian view has come to dominate the academic com- nitytosuchanextentthatalternative,non-Bayesianpositionsareseldomextensively researched. Needless to say, I think this is a pity. Non-Bayesian positions deserve to be examined with much greater care, and the present work is an attempt to defend what I believe to be a coherent and reasonably detailed non-Bayesian account of decision theory. The main thesis I defend can be summarised as follows. Rational agents m- imise subjective expected utility, but contrary to what is claimed by Bayesians, ut- ity and subjective probability should not be de?ned in terms of preferences over uncertain prospects. On the contrary, rational decision makers need only consider preferences over certain outcomes. It will be shown that utility and probability fu- tions derived in a non-Bayesian manner can be used for generating preferences over uncertain prospects, that support the principle of maximising subjective expected utility. To some extent, this non-Bayesian view gives an account of what modern - cision theory could have been like, had decision theorists not entered the Bayesian path discovered by Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage, and others. I will not discuss all previous non-Bayesian positions presented in the literature.
Download or read book Value of Information in the Earth Sciences written by Jo Eidsvik and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gathering the right kind and the right amount of information is crucial for any decision-making process. This book presents a unified framework for assessing the value of potential data gathering schemes by integrating spatial modelling and decision analysis, with a focus on the Earth sciences. The authors discuss the value of imperfect versus perfect information, and the value of total versus partial information, where only subsets of the data are acquired. Concepts are illustrated using a suite of quantitative tools from decision analysis, such as decision trees and influence diagrams, as well as models for continuous and discrete dependent spatial variables, including Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, Gaussian processes, and multiple-point geostatistics. Unique in scope, this book is of interest to students, researchers and industry professionals in the Earth and environmental sciences, who use applied statistics and decision analysis techniques, and particularly to those working in petroleum, mining, and environmental geoscience.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 661 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
Download or read book Foundations of Decision Analysis written by Ronald A. Howard and published by . This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches readers to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, readers will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Download or read book Handbook of Decision Analysis written by Gregory S. Parnell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Download or read book The Third International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam written by Vo Van Toi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-04-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vietnam is a rapidly developing, socially dynamic country, where interest in biomedical engineering activities has grown considerably in recent years. The leadership of the Vietnamese government, and of research and educational institutions, are well aware of the importance of this field for the development of the country and have instituted policies to promote its development. The political, economic and social environment within the country offers unique opportunities for the international community and this conference was intended to provide a vehicle for the sharing of experiences; development of support and collaboration networks for research; and exchange of ideas on how to improve the educational and entrepreneurial environment to better address the urgent needs of Vietnam. In January 2004, under the sponsorship of the U.S. National Science Foundation, a U.S. delegation that consisted of Biomedical Engineering professors from different universities in the United States, visited several universities and research institutions in Vietnam to assess the state of development of this field. This delegation proposed a five year plan that was enthusiastically embraced by the international scientific communities to actively develop collaborations with Vietnam. Within this framework, in July 2005, the First International Conference on the Development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnam was held in Ho Chi Minh City. From that conference a Consortium of Vietnam-International Universities was created to advise and assist the development of Biomedical Engineering in Vietnamese universities.
Download or read book Soft Methods in Probability Statistics and Data Analysis written by Przemyslaw Grzegorzewski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical probability theory and mathematical statistics appear sometimes too rigid for real life problems, especially while dealing with vague data or imprecise requirements. These problems have motivated many researchers to "soften" the classical theory. Some "softening" approaches utilize concepts and techniques developed in theories such as fuzzy sets theory, rough sets, possibility theory, theory of belief functions and imprecise probabilities, etc. Since interesting mathematical models and methods have been proposed in the frameworks of various theories, this text brings together experts representing different approaches used in soft probability, statistics and data analysis.