Download or read book COVID 19 and the Egyptian Economy From reopening to recovery Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors jobs and households written by Breisinger, Clemens and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.

Download or read book Impact of COVID 19 on the Egyptian economy Economic sectors jobs and households written by Breisinger, Clemens and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-15 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.

Download or read book 2021 Global food policy report Transforming food systems after COVID 19 written by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?

Download or read book Resilience of Informal Areas in Megacities Magnitude Challenges and Policies written by Mohsen M. Aboulnaga and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-16 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the socio-economic and sustainability challenges facing megacities in dealing with the dramatic population increases of informal areas and settlements (or slums), especially when coupled with the impacts and risks of climate change. The authors examine informal urban areas globally and in developing countries utilizing strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as a tool to solve the sequence of upgrading steps concerning slums and shanty towns, and also establish essential guidelines for local governments and stakeholders to create a balance and quality of life for slums dwellers, particularly in the age of the COVID-19 pandemic, through applying sustainability indicators that enhance the upgrading process. Coverage includes recent statistics and mapping of informal areas worldwide and assessment of the GIZ and Sir Norman Foster models in terms of energy demands and consequential emission of CO2 and air pollution from slums. Three models of Maspero’s Triangle are also studied and assessed. The book is essential reading for a wide range of researchers, students, policymakers, governments, and professionals as well as a good source for research centers and academicians working in energy, climate change, urban environments, and sustainable urban development.

Download or read book Impact of COVID 19 on the Jordanian economy Economic sectors food systems and households written by Raouf, Mariam and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-03 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth in Jordan potentially will come to a halt this year. This comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Government imposed an economic lockdown which restricted non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. A SAM multiplier model was used to estimate the economic impact of the lockdown and to explore potential recovery pathways for the Jordanian economy. Some of the key findings from this modeling exercise are: • National GDP is estimated to have fallen by 23 percent during the lockdown period. The services sector was hardest hit, seeing an estimated drop in output of almost 30 percent. • Food systems in Jordan are estimated to have experienced a reduction in output by almost 40 percent. • Employment losses during the lockdown were estimated at over 20 percent, mainly driven by job losses in services, followed by agriculture. • Household income fell on average by around one-fifth due to the lockdown, mainly driven by contraction in service sector activities, by slowdown in manufacturing activity, and by lower remittances from abroad. • GDP growth rates for Jordan’s economy will continue to be negative through 2020, ranging from -5.7 to -7.4 percent, depending on the speed of economic recovery. A slow pace of recovery is expected. This economic recovery offers opportunities for fostering sustainable economic transformation and structural change. Economic policies and incentives should be directed towards more economic diversification, greater resilience to withstand economic shocks, and job creation.

Download or read book COVID 19 and the Egyptian economy Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism Suez Canal revenues and remittances written by Breisinger, Clemens and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.

Download or read book The Egyptian Economy written by Hanāʼ Khayr al-Dīn and published by American Univ in Cairo Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction, unemployment and job creation, and the new pension system.

Download or read book The Egyptian Economy written by Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and published by American University in Cairo Press. This book was released on 2008-02-01 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Egyptian economy has undergone several reforms since the early 1990s. However, it was not until recently that the reform process picked up speed and intensity. Key initiatives included shifting to a flexible exchange rate regime, liberalizing trade, revising and reducing the tariff structure, and improving the income tax system. Plans are underway to restructure the financial sector and privatize most state-owned enterprises. This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction; monetary policy and the impact of exchange rate liberalization; unemployment and job creation; and the new pension system. The objective is to contribute to ongoing efforts to stimulate growth and employment, ensure fiscal sustainability, improve the external sector, and address issues related to poverty and income distribution. The volume focuses on the health and energy sectors in Egypt, with the aim of assessing each sector in three areas: financing, organization, and policy management, in order to suggest ideas for reform in light of international experience. Contributors: Ragui Assaad, Omneia Helmy, Abdallah Shehata Khattab, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Aart Kraay, Heba El-Laithy, Nihal El-Megharbel, Mai El Mossallamy, Tarek Abdelfattah Moursi, Sarah El Nashar, Tarek Selim, Enas Zakareya.

Download or read book Assessing the short term impacts of COVID 19 on Ethiopia s economy External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of COVID 19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region written by Johannes G. Hoogeveen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-12-20 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.

Download or read book Economic Impact and Recovery Following a Global Health Crisis written by Sloboda, Brian W. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has raised challenges in the assessment of macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts. The impacts of COVID-19 on the macro and micro sectors of the economy and the current and future economic tendencies have yet to be determined. The impact of COVID-19 research holds limitless potential, but the necessary research for professionals to understand the economic impacts is lacking and unclear. Economic Impact and Recovery Following a Global Health Crisis assesses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on the macroeconomic and microeconomic and uses various statistical methods and real-world data to predict and establish specific trends within the economy. Covering topics such as firm behavior and national economies, it is ideal for policymakers, industry professionals, researchers, academicians, instructors, and students.

Download or read book Winners and losers from COVID 19 Evidence from Google search data for Egypt written by Abay, Kibrom A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-23 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evolving pieces of evidence show that services are hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, both globally and in Egypt. Employing Google search data, we examine the implications of COVID-19 on demand for various services in Egypt. • We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction, including hotels and restaurants, air travel and tourism services, significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case and more so after the Egyptian government introduced major restrictions and curfews. For instance, in the first two months of the outbreak of the pandemic, February and March, demand for hotel and restaurant services contracted by about 70 percent. • In contrast, demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as information and communications technologies (ICT) and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost. Demand for ICT services tripled, while demand for delivery services doubled in the four months since the outbreak of the pandemic. • Intuitively, these results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors are expected to experience heterogenous impacts and damages associated with the pandemic. Our results, along with other evolving evidence, reinforce that those services and sectors negatively affected by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 deserve attention. • Finally, our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute and complement conventional data sources to estimate economic impacts and, hence, inform immediate and medium-term policy responses.

Download or read book Impact of COVID 19 on the Yemeni economy How the drop in remittances affected economic sectors food systems and households written by Elsabbagh, Dalia and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-05 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been an unprecedented decline in the flow of remittances to Yemen – a vital source of money for millions – as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Yemen’s economy was used to estimate the impact of lower remittances on economic sectors and employment, food systems, and household incomes.

Download or read book Estimating the economic costs of COVID 19 in Nigeria written by Andam, Kwaw S. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Download or read book Overconfident written by Roberta Gatti and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-10-06 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region’s economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region’s public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region’s health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems.

Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID 19 on Myanmar s economy A Social Accounting Matrix SAM multiplier approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.

Download or read book COVID 19 Learning Losses written by UNESCO and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-08 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the beginning of the pandemic, efforts have been made to monitor both school closures (and re-opening) and the measures put in place to ensure continuity of learning. These include the Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19, jointly supported by UNESCO, UNICEF and the World Bank. However, to date, no systematic evidence has been available on how students' learning is being affected by the disruptions caused by the pandemic or on the impact of education response measures initiated by governments. This report contributes to filling this evidence gap and includes a series of simulations of potential learning losses due to COVID-19 and exploration of their longer-term implications. The analysis is based on the Enabling learning for all framework, which outlines access, engagement and enabling environment as the three crucial enablers for learning, while the simulation assumptions are informed by the evidence on school closures and governments' education-related responses, collected through the joint survey.