Download or read book Core Damage Frequency Estimation Using Accident Sequence Precursor Data written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) ongoing Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to assess the potential for severe core damage (henceforth referred to simply as core damage) based on operating events. The types of operating events considered include accident sequence initiators, safety equipment failures, and degradation of plant conditions that could increase the probability that various postulated accident sequences occur. Such operating events potentially reduce the margin of safety available for prevention of core damage an thus can be considered as precursors to core damage. The current process for identifying, analyzing, and documenting ASP events is described in detail in Vanden Heuval et al. The significance of a Licensee Event Report (LER) event (or events) is measured by means of the conditional probability that the event leads to core damage, the so-called conditional core damage probability or, simply, CCDP. When the first ASP study results were published in 1982, it covered the period 1969--1979. In addition to identification and ranking of precursors, the original study attempted to estimate core damage frequency (CDF) based on the precursor events. The purpose of this paper is to compare the average annual CDF estimates calculated using the CCDP sum, Cooke-Goossens, Bier, and Abramson estimators for various reactor classes using the combined ASP data for the four years, 1990--1993. An important outcome of this comparison is an answer to the persistent question regarding the degree and effect of the positive bias of the CCDP sum method in practice. Note that this paper only compares the estimators with each other. Because the true average CDF is unknown, the estimation error is also unknown. Therefore, any observations or characterizations of bias are based on purely theoretical considerations.
Download or read book Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents 1986 written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Accident Sequence Precursor Program reviews licensee event reports of operational events that have occurred at LWRs to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core-damage accidents. Accident sequences considered in the study are those associated with inadequate core cooling. Accident sequence precursors are events that are important elements in such sequences. Such precursors could be infrequent initiating events or equipment failures that, when coupled with one or more postulated events, could result in a plant condition with inadequate core cooling. Originally proposed in the Risk Assessment Review Group Report (Lewis Committee report) in 1978, the study - subsequently named the Accident Sequence Precursor Program - was initiated at the Nuclear Operations Analysis Center in 1979. Earlier reports by the program involved assessment of events that occurred in 1969-1981 and 1984-1985. The present report involves the assessment of events that occurred during 1986. A nuclear plant has safety systems for mitigating the consequences of accidents or off-normal initiating events that may occur during the course of plant operation. These systems are built to high-quality standards and are redundant; nonetheless, they have a nonzero probability of failing or being in a failed state when required to operate. This report uses LERs and other plant data, estimated system unavailabilities, the expected average frequency of initiating events (LOFWs, LOOPs, LOCAs), and event details to evaluate the potential impact of the following two situations.
Download or read book Nuclear Safety written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 930 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Weekly Information Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1996-05-24 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Low Probability High Consequence Risk Analysis written by Ray Waller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-21 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.
Download or read book Review written by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accident Precursor Analysis and Management written by National Academy of Engineering and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2004-09-16 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of catastrophes, it is common to find prior indicators, missed signals, and dismissed alerts that, had they been recognized and appropriately managed before the event, could have resulted in the undesired event being averted. These indicators are typically called "precursors." Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence documents various industrial and academic approaches to detecting, analyzing, and benefiting from accident precursors and examines public-sector and private-sector roles in the collection and use of precursor information. The book includes the analysis, findings and recommendations of the authoring NAE committee as well as eleven individually authored background papers on the opportunity of precursor analysis and management, risk assessment, risk management, and linking risk assessment and management.
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering written by Mohammad Modarres and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-27 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the p
Download or read book Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis written by Mohammad Modarres and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1999-08-24 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction and explanation of pragmatic methods and techniques for reliability and risk studies, and a discussion of their uses and limitations. It features computer software that illustrates numerous examples found in the book, offering to help engineers and students solve problems. There is a module on Bayesian estimation. The computer disk is written in Visual Basic and is compatible with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets.
Download or read book Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twenty-seven operational events with conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage of 1.0 x 10E-06 or higher occurring at commercial light-water reactors during 1992 are considered to be precursors to potential core damage. These are described along with associated significance estimates, categorization, and subsequent analyses. The report discusses (1) the general rationale for this study, (2) the selection and documentation of events as precursors, (3) the estimation and use of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage to rank precursor events, and (4) the plant models used in the analysis process.
Download or read book Energy and Water Development Appropriations for 1985 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book PSA 93 written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry written by Nicola Paltrinieri and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2016-08-06 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry focuses on bridging the gap between research and industry by responding to the following questions: - What are the most relevant developments of risk analysis? - How can these studies help industry in the prevention of major accidents? Paltrinieri and Khan provide support for professionals who plan to improve risk analysis by introducing innovative techniques and exploiting the potential of data share and process technologies. This concrete reference within an ever-growing variety of innovations will be most helpful to process safety managers, HSE managers, safety engineers and safety engineering students. This book is divided into four parts. The Introduction provides an overview of the state-of-the-art risk analysis methods and the most up-to-date popular definitions of accident scenarios. The second section on Dynamic Risk Analysis shows the dynamic evolution of risk analysis and covers Hazard Identification, Frequency Analysis, Consequence Analysis and Establishing the Risk Picture. The third section on Interaction with Parallel Disciplines illustrates the interaction between risk analysis and other disciplines from parallel fields, such as the nuclear, the economic and the financial sectors. The final section on Dynamic Risk Management addresses risk management, which may dynamically learn from itself and improve in a spiral process leading to a resilient system. - Helps dynamic analysis and management of risk in chemical and process industry - Provides industry examples and techniques to assist you with risk- based decision making - Addresses also the human, economic and reputational aspects composing the overall risk picture
Download or read book Nuclear Regulatory Commission Issuances written by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1032 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy Research Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1994-06 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Management Science written by and published by . This book was released on 1998-09 with total page 930 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues for Feb. 1965-Aug. 1967 include Bulletin of the Institute of Management Sciences.
Download or read book Engineering Risks written by Ulrich Hauptmanns and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Encouragement by colleagues and a considerable increase in the use of prob abilistic analyses since the publication of the German edition in 1987 have motivated this English version. A mere translation was inappropriate because a number of important studies completed in recent years had to be included, among them the assessment of the risks of five nuclear power plants in the United States of America and the German Risk Study, Phase B. The opportunity was taken to elaborate on some concepts which have gained importance of late such as accident management. An update of international safety goals was also made; however, this can only be a momentary view of a field subjected to frequent change. Thanks are due to the Springer-Verlag for the careful editing and production of the book. Kaln, Garching Ulrich Hauptmanns March 1990 Wolfgang Werner Preface to the German Edition With the increasing use of complex technologies there is a growing need to evaluate the associated risks. The methodology of probabilistic safety and risk analysis allows predictive valuation of risks. Nuclear engineering has been in the forefront of the development and application of this method. In the Safety Study on US Power Plants published in 1975 the risk of an entire technology was investigated systematically and quantified for the first time. Meanwhile the methods have continuously been improved and applied to a number of nuclear power stations.
