Download or read book Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-10-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Download or read book Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by James M. Boughton and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
Download or read book Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices as Leading Indicator of Inflation in the Netherlands written by N. P. A. van Giersbergen and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Download or read book Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation written by Calista Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book Are Commodity Prices a Leading Indicator of Inflationary Trends written by Nikos Economou and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Commodity Prices Leading Indicators of OECD Prices written by Martine Durand and published by OECD. This book was released on 1988 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices and the New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.
Download or read book Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation January 2009 written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-09-14 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the model. Commodity price levels tend to be cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Commodity price movements contribute weakly to predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Download or read book Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets written by Noureddine Krichene and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots. In contrast, consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation and posed a price puzzle insofar their evolution was not responsive to record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation. Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock. Policy makers may have to face a policy dilemma: maintain monetary policy stance with accelerating commodities price inflation, subsequent world recession, and financial disorder; or tighten monetary policy with subsequent world recession followed by recovery and financial and price stability.
Download or read book Guide to Economic Indicators written by The Economist and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ultimate resource for understanding and interpreting important economic figures Economic indicators are increasingly complicated to compute and comprehend. Yet in today's challenging economic environment, economic indicators are also more important than ever. This highly accessible seventh edition of the Guide to Economic Indicators presents the complicated subject of economic indicators in a conversational tone, helping readers to quickly gain an understanding of economic indicators, including why they're important, how to interpret them, and their reliability in predicting future economic performance. The book Describes how economic indicators can be manipulated to demonstrate almost any business cycle Examines how GDP, invisible balances, the terms of trade, and unemployment are used to interpret economic data Includes over ninety tables and charts Fully updated and revised, the Guide to Economic Indicators, 7th Edition is an invaluable resource for anyone searching for a clear explanation of the world's underlying economic realities.
Download or read book The Connection Between Commodity Prices and the Consumer Price Index in Canada written by Vasilios Tsimiklis and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the relationship between changes in commodity prices and changes in inflation in Canada between 1983 and 2008 by looking at the ability of the Bank of Canada Commodity Price Indices to predict changes in the Consumer Price Index. It is found that indices with energy components lead changes in inflation but only for the latter half of the sample period, 1996-2008. Other suspected leading indicators of inflation, such as the money supply, the foreign exchange rate, the housing index, interest rates, and the price of gold, do not change the relationship or its strength. The positive correlation between commodity prices and inflation is further supported by a decomposition of the mean real returns on portfolios into months in which a four-month moving average of the Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index signals a rising price level and those which do not, the mean real return being substantially higher in the signal-on months.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation written by James M. Boughton and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the large industrial countries. It begins by developing a two-country model in order to examine the theoretical effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on commodity and manufactures prices and on exchange rates. It is shown that if monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Non-monetary shocks generally weaken these relationships, but such disturbances may cancel out for broad indexes covering a wide range of commodities. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. The weights assigned to different commodities vary substantially across countries. Nonetheless, when the indexes are expressed in a common currency, they tend to be highly correlated over time, except when sharp movements occur in certain commodity prices. The major source of contrast across countries in the behavior of the indexes derives from exchange rate movements. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the theoretical model, with relatively few differences across countries. Three main tendencies may be cited. First, low inflation in industrial countries has tended to be associated with low levels of commodity prices, and conversely; commodity-price levels are cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Second, there has been some tendency for movements in commodity prices to precede changes in general inflation rates by a few months, although it is not clear whether this tendency is strong enough to be a reliable aid in forecasting the rate of inflation. Third, there s a strong and fairly reliable tendency for turning points in general inflation rates. Commodity prices thus appear to contribute to predictions of turning points in inflation, predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
