Download or read book Capital Flows Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-12-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the dynamics in capital flows, credit markets and growth in South Africa. The authors explore the role of global economic growth, policy shifts and various economic policy uncertainties. Central banks in advanced economies are engaged in unconventional monetary policy tools such as balance sheet policies, negative interest rates and extended forward guidance to assist them to meet their price, financial and macro-economic stability objectives. This book determines whether BRICS GDP growth is a source of shocks or an amplifier of global growth shocks. The authors find that global economic growth and policy uncertainty reinforce each other via capital flows, credit conditions and business confidence on the domestic economy. Furthermore, they demonstrate that there is momentum in the changes in the spread between the repo rate and federal funds rate. In addition, global real policy rates impact domestic GDP growth and labor market conditions. The authors examine the economic costs of capital flow surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks and their interaction with GDP growth and credit. They show that equity and debt inflows matter in the attainment of the price stability mandate. Moreover, business confidence transmits sovereign credit ratings upgrades and downgrades shocks to the real economy via GDP growth, the cost of government debt and borrowing to impact credit growth. High GDP growth increases the likelihood of sovereign credit ratings upgrades, hence policymakers should implement pro-growth policies. Inflation regimes impact the transmission of positive nominal demand shocks to the price level. Low and stable inflation (inflation below 4.5 per cent) reduces the pass-through of positive nominal demand shocks to inflation.

Download or read book Bank Credit Extension and Real Economic Activity in South Africa written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents empirical evidence that supports and facilitates a practical, integrated approach to how bank regulatory and selected macro-prudential tools interact with monetary policy to achieve price and financial stability. The empirical results contained in various chapters accompany in-depth historical analysis and counterfactual scenarios that enable proper policy evaluation and the interaction of bank regulatory, macro-prudential and monetary policy tools in South Africa. The presented evidence also identifies financial asset boom and bust episodes and the associated costly output losses. In addition, the authors explore the amplification of credit dynamics by commodity prices and sector credit re-allocation due to capital inflows shocks. The book’s empirical analysis uses a wide range of statistical and econometric approaches on granular data and economic variables to derive policy implications and recommendations. This in-depth quantitative analysis includes determining inverse transmission of global liquidity, as well as the effects of capital flows, lending-rate margins, financial regulatory uncertainty, the National Credit Act, bank capital-adequacy ratios, bank loan loss provisions, loan-to-value ratios and repayment-to-income ratios on the macro-economy.

Download or read book The Composition of Capital Flows written by Mr.Norbert Funke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-03-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, South Africa has attracted relatively little foreign direct investment (FDI), but considerable amounts of portfolio inflows. In this context, the objective of the paper is twofold: to identify the determinants of the level and composition of capital flows to emerging markets and to draw policy conclusions for South Africa. We estimate a dynamic panel for up to 81 emerging markets using GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) techniques. The results suggest that further trade and capital control liberalization would increase the share of FDI. Additionally, a reduction in exchange rate volatility would affect the composition of capital flows in favor of FDI.

Download or read book Managing Volatile Capital Flows Experiences and Lessons for Sub Saharan African Frontier Markets written by Cheikh A. Gueye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-26 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.

Download or read book Analyzing Capital Flow Drivers Using the At Risk Framework South Africa s Case written by Rohit Goel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cross-border capital flows are important for South Africa. They fund the nation’s relatively large external financing needs and have important financial stability implications evidenced by the large capital outflows and asset price selloffs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper adds to the literature on the drivers of South Africa’s capital flows by applying the ‘at-risk’ framework––which differentiates between the likelihood of “extreme” inflows (surges) and outflows (reversals) and of “typical” flows––to both nonresident and resident capital flows. Estimated results show that among nonresident flows, the portfolio debt component is most sensitive to changes in external risk sentiment particularly during reversals. This applies to flows to the sovereign sector. Nonresident equity flows, both portfolio and FDI, are most sensitive to domestic economic activity especially during surges. This applies to flows to the corporate and banking sectors. Results also suggest that resident flows, in particular the FDI component, tend to offset nonresident flows, thus acting as buffers against funding withdrawal during periods of global risk aversion.

Download or read book Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro economy written by Mthuli Ncube and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals written by Mr.Nicolas E. Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-16 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the behavior of macro and credit variables during episodes of capital inflows reversals in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We find that exchange rate flexibility is associated with milder credit growth during the boom but, even though smaller than in more rigid regimes, it cannot shield the economy from a credit reversal. Furthermore, we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle: credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place. This results stress the complementarity of macro-prudential policies with the exchange rate regime. More flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surchages and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle. In contrast, more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms, such as reserve requirements, loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income and debt-service-to-income limits.

Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes South Africa’s economic development and challenges. South Africa has made considerable economic and social progress over the past two decades, but faces substantial challenges. Global transitions—China’s slowdown and rebalancing, weak commodity prices, and U.S. monetary policy normalization—are taking a heavy toll on South Africa. Growth and employment, which were already low, are faltering and continue to underperform peer countries. Vulnerabilities remain elevated and have increased in the real and fiscal sectors. Boosting growth and job creation, thus reducing extremely high unemployment and inequality, and promoting social transformation remain South Africa’s key challenges.

Download or read book Capital Inflows Credit Growth and Financial Systems written by Deniz Igan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-18 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploiting a granular panel dataset that breaks down capital inflows into FDI, portfolio and other categories, and distinguishes between credit to the household sector and to the corporate sector, we investigate the association between capital inflows and credit growth. We find that non-FDI capital inflows boost credit growth and increase the likelihood of credit booms in both household and corporate sectors. For household credit growth, the composition of capital inflows appears to be more important than financial system characteristics. In contrast, for corporate credit growth, both the composition and the financial system matter. Regardless of sectors and financial systems, net other inflows are always linked to rapid credit growth. Firm-level data corroborate these findings and hint at a causal link: net other inflows are related to more rapid credit growth for firms that rely more heavily on external financing. Further explorations on how capital flows translate into more credit indicate that both demand and supply side factors play a role.

Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Download or read book The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies written by Charles Amo Yartey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-02 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the institutional and macroeconomic determinants of stock market development using a panel data of 42 emerging economies for the period 1990 to 2004. The paper finds that macroeconomic factors such as income level, gross domestic investment, banking sector development, private capital flows, and stock market liquidity are important determinants of stock market development in emerging market countries. The results also show that political risk, law and order, and bureaucratic quality are important determinants of stock market development because they enhance the viability of external finance. This result suggests that the resolution of political risk can be an important factor in the development of emerging stock markets. The analysis also shows the factors identified above as determining stock market development in emerging economies can also explain the development of the stock market in South Africa.

Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Download or read book Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets written by Ms.Deniz O Igan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-06 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between capital inflows and industry growth in a sample of 22 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2010. We expect more external finance dependent industries in countries that host more capital inflows to grow disproportionately faster. This is indeed the case in the pre-crisis period of 1998–2007, and is driven by debt, rather than equity, inflows. We also observe a reduction in output volatility but this association is more pronounced for equity, rather than debt, inflows. These relationships, however, break down during the crisis, hinting at the importance of an undisrupted global financial system for emerging markets to harness the growth benefits of capital inflows. In line with this observation, we also document that the inflows-growth nexus is stronger in countries with well-functioning banks.

Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

Download or read book Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Erlend Nier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Download or read book Financing Africa written by Samuel Munzele Maimbo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011-09-07 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financing Africa takes stock of Africa's financial systems in light of recent changes in the global financial system --including the greater risk aversion of international investors, a shift in economic and financial powers towards emerging markets and the regulatory reform debate - and the increasing role of technology. Using a wider and more detailed array of data than previous publications, we observe a trend towards financial deepening, more stability and more inclusion leading up to the crisis; serious challenges, however, continue, including limited access to financial services, focus on short-term contracts and hidden fragility, related to weak regulatory frameworks, undue government interference and governance deficiencies. Our policy analysis therefore focuses on (i) expanding outreach, (ii) fostering long-term finance and (iii) improving regulation and supervision. We identify the positive role of innovation and competition, a stronger focus on non-traditional financial service providers, and more emphasis on demand-side constraints as priority areas for policy actions. Specifically, competition from new players outside the banking system, including telecomm companies can increase outreach with technological innovation that changes the economics of retail finance. Moving beyond national stock exchanges that are not sustainable in most African countries towards regional solutions and over-the-counter trades can help foster long-term finance, as can addressing governance challenges in contractual savings institutions, including life insurance companies and pension funds. Finally, there is a need to look beyond supply-side constraints towards users of financial services, focusing more on financial literacy of households and firms, but also consumer protection. In formulating policy messages, we carefully distinguish between different country groupings, differentiating -- among others -- between low- and middle-income and small and larger economies, with a special focus on resource-based economies and post-conflict countries. This book reaches out to both policy makers concerned about a more inclusive and effective financial system and other stakeholders, including practitioners and development partners. With this book we aim to contribute to the on-going financial sector debate on Africa, with the ultimate goal of faster economic development and poverty reduction.