Download or read book Canonical Term Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premiums written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the dynamics of risk premiums on the German bond market, employing no-arbitrage term-structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, recently popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on a new canonical representation for this class of models. We find that risk premiums display a considerable variability over time, are strongly counter-cyclical and bear no significant relation to inflation.
Download or read book Canonical Term Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We derive a canonical representation for the no-arbitrage discrete-time term structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on this canonical representation and we analyze how alternative parametrizations affect estimated risk premia, impulse response functions and variance decompositions. We find a trade-off between the need to obtain parsimonious parametrizations and the ability of the models to match observed patterns of variation in risk premia. We also find that more richly parametrized models uncover a greater influence of macroeconomic fundamentals on the long-end of the yield curve.
Download or read book Canonical Term structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premiums written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Canoncial Term structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamic of Bond Risk Premiums written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models written by Scott Joslin and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In any canonical Gaussian dynamic term structure model (GDTSM), the conditional forecasts of the pricing factors are invariant to the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions. This invariance is maintained even in the presence of a variety of restrictions on the factor structure of bond yields. To establish these results, we develop a novel canonical GDTSM in which the pricing factors are observable portfolios of yields. For our normalization, standard maximum likelihood algorithms converge to the global optimum almost instantaneously. We present empirical estimates and out-of-sample forecasts for several GDTSMs using data on U.S. Treasury bond yields. Taken together, our results shed new light on estimation and interpretation of GDTSMs, as well as the eff ects of di fferent specifi cations of the risk premiums and the risk-neutral distribution of bond yields on the observed dynamics of the yield curve.
Download or read book Canonical Term structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premiums written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the dynamics of risk premiums on the German bond market, employing no-arbitrage term-structure models with both observable and un-observable state variables, recently popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on a new canonical representation for this class of models. We find that risk premiums display a considerable variability over time, are strongly counter-cyclical and bear no significant relation to inflaiton.
Download or read book Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models written by Bruno Feunou and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with pre-crisis data. This paper uses a software developed by Fund staff for this purpose. This software makes it possible to estimate the term structure using at least nine models, while opening up the possibility of generating simulated paths of the term structure.
Download or read book Dynamic Term Structure Modeling written by Sanjay K. Nawalkha and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-05-23 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Dynamic Term Structure Modeling "This book offers the most comprehensive coverage of term-structure models I have seen so far, encompassing equilibrium and no-arbitrage models in a new framework, along with the major solution techniques using trees, PDE methods, Fourier methods, and approximations. It is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." --Sanjiv Ranjan Das Professor of Finance, Santa Clara University, California, coeditor, Journal of Derivatives "Bravo! This is an exhaustive analysis of the yield curve dynamics. It is clear, pedagogically impressive, well presented, and to the point." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb author, Dynamic Hedging and The Black Swan "Nawalkha, Beliaeva, and Soto have put together a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on modern dynamic term structure modeling. It is both accessible and rigorous and should be of tremendous interest to anyone who wants to learn about state-of-the-art fixed income modeling. It provides many numerical examples that will be valuable to readers interested in the practical implementations of these models." --Pierre Collin-Dufresne Associate Professor of Finance, UC Berkeley "The book provides a comprehensive description of the continuous time interest rate models. It serves an important part of the trilogy, useful for financial engineers to grasp the theoretical underpinnings and the practical implementation." --Thomas S. Y. Ho, PHD President, Thomas Ho Company, Ltd, coauthor, The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling
Download or read book Stochastic Correlation and Risk Premia in Term Structure Models written by Carl Chiarella and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes a term structure model that allows for both stochastic correlation between underlying factors and an extended market price of risk specification. We show that significant improvement in bond fitting and portfolio performance is obtained by the model. However, the restriction on market price of risk has a more negative impact on bond price fitting and forecasting, whereas the restriction on correlated factors has a more negative impact on hedging performance. The model has good predictive power for bond risk premia. Once our model factors are taken into account, other predictive factors become insignificant.
Download or read book Expectation Puzzles Time varying Risk Premia and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure written by Qiang Dai and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional expectations theory, ' we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models. Specifically, we are able to match all of the key empirical findings reported by Fama and Bliss and Campbell and Shiller, among others, within large subclasses of affine and quadratic-Gaussian term structure models. Additionally, we show that certain risk-premium adjusted' projections of changes in yields on the slope of the yield curve recover the coefficients of unity predicted by the models. Key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let the risk factors affect the market prices of risk directly, and not only through the factor volatilities. The risk premiums have a simple form consistent with Fama's findings on the predictability of forward rates, and are shown to also be consistent with interest rate, feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy
Download or read book An Asset Pricing Approach to Testing General Term Structure Models written by Bent Jesper Christensen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a new empirical approach to term structure analysis that allows testing for time-varying risk premiums and arbitrage opportunities in models with both unobservable factors and factors identified as the innovations to observed macroeconomic variables. Factors may play double roles as both covariance-generating common shocks driving yields and determinants of market prices ofrisk in cross-sectional pricing. The evidence favors time-varying risk prices significantly related to the second Stock-Watson principal component of macroeconomic variables and to changes in the industrial production index. Our preferred specification includes these two observable and two unobservable factors, with the no-arbitrage condition imposed.
Download or read book Regime Shifts Risk Premiums in the Term Structure and the Business Cycle written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine various dynamic term structure models for monthly US Treasury yields from 1964 to 2001. Of particular interest is the predictability of bond excess returns. Recent evidence indicates that using multiple forward rates can sharply predict future excess returns on bonds; the R2 of this predictability regression can be as high as 30%. In addition, the projection coefficients in these predictability regressions exhibit a tent shaped pattern that relates to the maturity of the forward rate. This dimension of the data in conjunction with the transition dynamics of bond yields (i.e., conditional volatility and cross-correlation of bond yields) poses an serious challenge to term structure models. In this paper we present and estimate a regime-shifts term structure model - our findings show that this model can account for all aspects of the predictability regression and the transition dynamics of yields. Alternative models, such as, affine factor models cannot account for these features of the data. We find that the regimes in the model are related to the NBER business cycle indicator.
Download or read book A Review of the Dynamic Default Free Term Structure Models written by Ako Doffou and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Enormous progress has been made by academics and finance practitioners alike in modeling the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates in the past 35 years. This paper extends Yan (2001). The dynamics of the term structure of interest rates are critical in assessing prices and hedging portfolios of fixed-income derivative instruments. This paper reviews the theoretical development of the dynamic models of the default-free term structure and their applications in pricing interest rate options. Equilibrium models and their multifactor extensions are examined. These models offer the economic intuition linking the term structure to economic fundamentals. These models also constitute a framework of the arbitrage models which price interest rate derivatives using the market prices of bonds. Recent studies expand this framework, directly model observable market rates, incorporate an internally consistent correlation structure, use pricing factors as observable portfolios of zero-coupon yields acting as state variables, offer a discrete time setting with recursive closed form solutions for zero coupon bonds, have unconstrained state dependence of the market prices of risk, build in smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings, and are driven by state vectors with unspanned macro risks.
Download or read book Analysis of Bond Risk Premia written by Lukas Wäger and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this thesis is on bond return predictability and providing an empirical and economic understanding of bond risk premia. The thesis consists of an empirical analysis of time-varying bond risk premia along three major branches of the current term structure literature, namely yields-only, macro-finance and multi-currency term structure models. All these models belong to the well-known class of affine models introduced by Ang and Piazzesi (2003), whereas the latter two embed unspanned factors. Unspanned factors are state variables that have an effect on bond risk premia but do not span the cross-section of yields, as recently introduced by Duffee (2011), Joslin, Priebsch and Singleton (2011) and Boos (2011). The section concerning yields-only models contributes by providing evidence of three priced risk premia of bonds in the US market, extending the analysis of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and Boos (2011). The section concerning macrofinance models adds to the new branch of models with unspanned macro factors and extends existing research by analyzing the effects of unspanned macro factors on risk premia beyond the level risk premium and extending into a broader and longer data set of macroeconomic variables. The section concerning multi-currency models firstly introduces unspanned factors into international models by taking mutually unspanned latent yield curve factors of domestic and foreign countries as state variables. The information in foreign yield curves is found to be partly unspanned by the domestic yield curve and improves bond return predictability beyond local models.
Download or read book Macro Factors in the Term Structure of Credit Spreads written by Jeffery D. Amato and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B rated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables -- indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions -- as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs as a forward--looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher-rated bonds.
Download or read book Stochastic Discount Factor Models of the Term Structure written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
