Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.

Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Investor s Guide to Active Asset Allocation written by Martin Pring and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2010-06-15 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation offers you the background and analytical tools required to take full advantage of the opportunities found in asset allocation, sector rotation, ETFs, and the business cycle. Written by renowned technical analyst and best-selling author Martin Pring, the book presents Pring's unique Six Business Cycle Stages, explaining why certain asset categories perform better or worse during different phases of the business cycle, and demonstrating how to use intermarket tools and technical analysis to recognize what business cycle stage the market is in. Pring shows you how to apply active asset allocation, rotating among sectors and major markets (stocks, bonds, and futures) as the business cycle stage changes, to develop optimum allocation strategies. He focuses on exchange traded funds (ETFs) as the best vehicle for asset allocation rotation, since they are easily traded and have much more flexibility than mutual funds. He also offers specific guidelines for what sectors to be in, depending on the business cycle stage. The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation provides you with proven investing expertise on: Basic Principles of Money Management How the Business Cycle Drives the Prices of Bonds, Stocks, and Commodities The Pring Six Business Cycle Stages Technical Tools that Help to Identify Trend Reversals Putting Things into a Long-Term Perspective Recognizing Stages Using Easy-to-Follow Indicators as well as Models How the Ten Market Sectors Fit into the Rotation Process How Individual Sectors and Groups Performed in Each of the Six Stages Asset Allocation for Specific Stages This dynamic investing resource also gives you access to downloadable content, which contains supplementary information that will help you execute the strategies described in the book. You'll find links to useful websites that contain a wide-ranging library of ETFs, database sources, historical data files in Excel format, and a collection of historical multi-colored PowerPoint charts. An essential tool for improving your analytical skills, The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation shows you how to move from a passive to an active allocation model and explains the link between business cycle and stock market cycle for more effective - and profitable - trading and investing.

Download or read book Investment and Business Cycles written by James Waterhouse Angell and published by . This book was released on 1941 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Profiting from Monetary Policy written by T. Aubrey and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis has led to a decade of poor returns for pension schemes and lower retirement incomes. Credit-based investment strategies that track the business cycle, are allowing preservation of investors' capital. This book provides analysis and investment strategy plans to generate equity-like-returns with bond like volatility.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book Business Cycles and Equilibrium written by Fischer Black and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-11-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy Warns about the use and abuse of modeling Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing" Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.

Download or read book Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation written by Henrik Lumholdt and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers each step in the asset allocation process, addressing as many of the relevant questions as possible along the way. How can we formulate expectations about long-term returns? How relevant are valuations? What are the challenges to optimizing the portfolio? Can factor investing add value and, if so, how can it be implemented? Which are the key performance drivers for each asset class, and what determines how they are correlated? How can we apply insights about the business cycle to tactical asset allocation? The book is aimed at finance professionals and others looking for a coherent framework for decision-making in asset allocation, both at the strategic and tactical level. It stresses analysis rather than pre-conceived ideas about investments, and it draws on both empirical research and practical experience to give the reader as strong a background as possible.

Download or read book Investment Cycles and Asset Allocation written by Éric Mijot and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy written by Robert T. McGee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The absolute and relative performance of various asset classes is systematically related to macroeconomic trends. In this new book, Robert McGee provides a thorough guide to each stage of the business cycle and analyzes the investment implications using real-world examples linking economic dynamics to investment results.

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.

Download or read book Balanced Asset Allocation written by Alex Shahidi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-12-31 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conventional portfolio is prone to frequent and potentially devastating losses because it is NOT balanced to different economic outcomes. In contrast, a truly balanced portfolio can help investors reduce risk and more reliably achieve their objectives. This simple fact would surprise most investors, from beginners to professionals. Investment consultant Alex Shahidi puts his 15 years of experience advising the most sophisticated investors in the world and managing multi-billion dollar portfolios to work in this important resource for investors. You will better understand why nearly every portfolio is poorly balanced and how to view the crucial asset allocation decision from a deeper, more thoughtful perspective. The concepts presented are simple, intuitive and easy to implement for every investor. Author Alex Shahidi will walk you through the logic behind the balanced portfolio framework and provide step-by-step instructions on how to build a truly balanced portfolio. No book has ever been written that discusses asset allocation in this light. Provides insights from a top-ranked investment consultant using strategies from the industry’s brightest minds Proposes a balanced asset allocation that can achieve stable returns through various economic climates Introduces sophisticated concepts in very simple terms For those who want to better manage their investment portfolio and seek a more advanced approach to building a balanced portfolio, Balanced Asset Allocation: How to Profit in Any Economic Climate provides an in-depth treatment of the topic that can be put to use immediately.

Download or read book Business Cycle Clustering and Asset Returns written by Sandro Braun and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business cycles are a central element of the economy. Over the last decades, more and more sophisticated methods and data have become available for business cycle classification. This paper contributes to the field of business cycle and recession estimation by applying a fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm on a large macroeconomic dataset from the United States. The clustering algorithm separates the data into two clusters which represent economic upswings and downturns. The clustering score not only identifies recessions, it also has strong predictive power on the returns of financial asset classes. Equities perform 6.3% better when in upswing than in downturn. On the other side, government bonds perform 5.8% better when in downturn than in upswing. Applying the clustering score directly to an asset allocation decision, buying more equities in upswings and more bonds in downturns, results in significantly better risk-adjusted returns compared to the asset classes individually. The clustering score therefore offers significant added-value in risk-on/risk-off portfolio decisions.

Download or read book Mastering The Market Cycle written by Howard Marks and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets. We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets, and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result. If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed. By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.

Download or read book Business Cycles and Asset Allocation written by Max Chen and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”

Download or read book Understanding Asset Allocation written by Victor A. Canto and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2006 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about effective asset allocation. It's not enough to rely on some investment manager's "one-size-fits-all" software to allocate your precious capital: you need to understand the process, and take control. In Understanding Asset Allocation, world-class economist, investment expert, and hedge fund manager Victor Canto shows exactly how to understand the process of assett allocation. Canto introduces a flexible, intuitive, easy-to-use approach to asset allocation that leverages powerful business cycle information and investment vehicles most investors ignore. Canto reveals what you can (and can't) learn from historical data; how to find and focus on sectors that offer exceptional opportunity; and how to manage risk far more effectively. Whether you manage your own investments or rely on an advisor, Understanding Asset Allocation will help you optimize all your asset allocation decisions -- and maximize the returns they deliver.