Download or read book Business Cycle Effects on Portfolio Credit Risk written by Andrea Cipollini and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we focus on measuring the risk associated to a bank loan portfolio. In particular, we depart from the standard one factor model representation of portfolio credit risk. In particular, we consider an hetrogeneous portfolio, and we account for stochastic dependent recoveries. We also examine the influence of either one systemic shock (interpreted as the state of the business cycle) or two systemic shocks (interpreted as demand and supply innovations) on portfolio credit risk. The identification and estimation of the common shocks is obtained by fitting a Dynamic Factor model to a large number of macro credit drivers. The scenarios are obtained by employing Montecarlo stochastic simulation.
Download or read book Risk and Business Cycles written by Tyler Cowen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-09-26 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the author argues the case for the revival of an important role for monetary causes in business cycle theory, which challenges the current trend towards favouring purely real theories.
Download or read book Correlations and Business Cycles of Credit Risk written by Daniel Roesch and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A major topic in empirical finance is correlation of default risk. Correlations are the main drivers for credit risk on a portfolio basis and for banks' capital requirements under the New Basel Accord. However, empirical evidence on the magnitude of correlations is rather scarce, mainly due to data limitations. Using a large database of bankruptcies in Germany we estimate correlations using a simple version of the Basel II factor model. Then we extend the model to an approach with observable risk factors and suggest that this model with default probabilities depending on the state of the economy may be more adequate. Empirical evidence on proxies for the credit cycles is presented for German industry sectors. We find that much of the co-movements can be explained by our variables. Finally, we discuss some implications for forecasts of distributions of potential future defaults of a bank's Portfolio.
Download or read book Credit Portfolio Risk and Pd Confidence Sets Through the Business Cycle written by Stefan Trück and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transition matrices are an important determinant for risk management and VaR calculations in credit portfolios. It is well known that rating migration behavior is not constant through time. It shows cyclical behavior and significant changes over the years. We investigate the effect of changes in migration matrices on credit portfolio risk in terms of Expected Loss and Value-at-Risk figures for exemplary loan portfolios. The estimates are based on historical transition matrices for different time horizons and a continuous-time simulation procedure. We further determine confidence sets for the probability of default (PD) in different rating classes by a bootstrapping methodology. Our findings are substantial changes in VaR as well as for the width of estimated PD confidence intervals.
Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy s Risk Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk written by M. Hashem Pesaran and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The potential for portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconomic model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose a model for exploring credit risk diversification across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity reduces shock sensitivity. Allowing for regional parameter heterogeneity seems to better approximate the loss distributions generated by the fully heterogenous model than allowing just for industry heterogeneity. The regional model also exhibits less shock sensitivity"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Download or read book Managing Portfolio Credit Risk in Banks written by Arindam Bandyopadhyay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-05-09 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk is the risk resulting from the uncertainty that a borrower or a group of borrowers may be unwilling or unable to meet their contractual obligations as per the agreed terms. It is the largest element of risk faced by most banks and financial institutions. Potential losses due to high credit risk can threaten a bank's solvency. After the global financial crisis of 2008, the importance of adopting prudent risk management practices has increased manifold. This book attempts to demystify various standard mathematical and statistical techniques that can be applied to measuring and managing portfolio credit risk in the emerging market in India. It also provides deep insights into various nuances of credit risk management practices derived from the best practices adopted globally, with case studies and data from Indian banks.
Download or read book Macroeconomics and Credit Risk written by M. Hashem Pesaran and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new approach to modeling conditional credit loss distributions. Asset value changes of firms in a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks from the perspective of default (and hence loss). Default probabilities are driven primarily by how firms are tied to business cycles, both domestic and foreign, and how business cycles are linked across countries. We allow for firm-specific business cycle effects and the heterogeneity of firm default thresholds using credit ratings. The model can be used, for example, to compute the effects of a hypothetical negative equity price shock in South East Asia on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio with global exposures over one or more quarters. We show that the effects of such shocks on losses are asymmetric and non-proportional, reflecting the highly non-linear nature of the credit risk model.
Download or read book Credit Risk and Business Cycles written by Jianjun Miao and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Corporate Bond Rating Drift written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonperforming Loans in Sub Saharan Africa written by Hippolyte Fofack and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models. "--World Bank web site.
Download or read book Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating capital inflows reduce credit growth while loan quality deteriorates. Particularly noteworthy is the sharp deterioration of balance sheets following a reversal of portfolio inflows. We also find evidence of feedback effects from the financial sector on the wider economy. GDP growth falls after shocks that drive non-performing loans higher or generate a contraction in credit. This analysis was used in chapter 1 of the Global Financial Stability Report (September 2011) to help evaluate the sensitivity of banks' capital adequacy ratios to macroeconomic and funding cost shocks.
Download or read book Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Download or read book What Drives the Aggregate Credit Risk written by Malek Jan and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2015-07-07 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been a long discussion about macroeconomic variables influencing the level of aggregate credit risk in the economy. While literature provides both evidence and theoretical explanation of the influence of the business cycle on credit risk, the effect of other variables has not been explored sufficiently. In addition, recent literature suggests the existence of a latent factor behind aggregate credit risk. This work provides in its first part a discussion of potential aggregate credit risk drivers, which have been previously suggested in literature. We verify using a regression model whether the effect of these variables is also apparent in the Czech Republic. The second part of this work explicitly models the latent factor by adding an unobserved component to the model constructed earlier in this thesis. The contribution of this work is due to our belief twofold. First, we add a latent component to the linear regression model. Secondly, we analyze if and under which circumstances the latent component extension improves the fit of the regression model and discuss whether the explicit estimate of the unobserved component has a feasible interpretation as the default cycle.
Download or read book Prudential Supervision written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since banking systems play a crucial role in maintaining the overall health of the economy, the adverse effects of poorly supervised systems may be quite severe. Without some form of vigilant external oversight, banking systems could fall prey to excessive risk taking, moral hazard, and corruption. Prudential supervision provides that oversight, using government regulation and monitoring to ensure the soundness of the banking system and, by extension, the economy at large. The contributors to this thoughtful volume examine the current state of prudential supervision, focusing on fundamental issues and key pragmatic concerns. Why is prudential supervision so important? What kinds of excess must it guard against? What particular forms does it take? Which of these are the most effective deterrents against mismanagement and system overload in today's rapidly shifting financial climate? The contributors foresee a continued movement beyond simple regulatory rules in banking and toward a more active evaluation and supervision of a bank's risk management practices.
Download or read book Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing written by Giancarlo Gasha and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
