Download or read book Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices written by Mr.David A Reichsfeld and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Download or read book A Treatise on Markets written by Joseph M. Burns and published by Studies in Economic Policy. This book was released on 1979 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Relationship Between Futures Market Speculation and Spot Market Volatility written by Xuemei Xiao and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates the relationship between speculation in futures markets and expected and unexpected volatility in the spot markets for 21 different commodities. I use the index of adequate speculation, INDADSP, and the index of excess speculation, INDEXSP, developed and estimated by Shanker (2017), to capture the degree of speculation required to meet hedging demand, and the degree of speculation in excess of hedging demand, respectively. For comparison, I also use Working's (1960) speculative index T, as a measure of speculation. I estimate the expected volatility (EV) and unexpected volatility (UEV) of the spot market using a GARCH model. The empirical results indicate that the GJR-GARCH model with a Student's t distribution for the error term is the most appropriate model, among the GARCH-family of models, to capture the volatility of 17 of the 21 spot commodity returns. However, the results of feeder cattle indicate the exists of serial correlation of the residuals for all three GARCH model I used, so I drop it and do the further analysis for the rest of 20 commodities and financial contracts. For each commodity, I create time series of matched weekly indices of speculation, expected volatility and unexpected volatility. Next, I investigate the long-run and short-run relationships between volatilities and speculation using an autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that there is a long term relationship between expected and unexpected volatility and the speculative indices, for all commodities, except the Euro, Eurodollar, and U.S. T-bond, and a short term relationship between volatilities and speculation for all commodities. Finally, I apply the Toda-Yamamoto test to investigate the causal relationship between speculation in futures markets and volatility in spot markets. I find that speculation tends to lead expected volatility more than unexpected volatility for the majority of commodities/financial assets. Expected volatility, rather than unexpected volatility, tends to lead speculation for a majority of commodities/financial assets. There is a bidirectional causality between expected volatility and INDADSP, INDEXSP, and T and between unexpected volatility and INDEXSP for several different commodities and financial assets. However, there is no bidirectional causality between unexpected volatility and the speculative indices INDADSP and T for all 20 commodities/financial assets.
Download or read book Understanding Futures Markets written by Robert W. Kolb and published by Pearson Scott Foresman. This book was released on 1988 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets written by Carley Garner and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2012-01-04 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency trading offers immense potential to stock and futures investors seeking new speculative opportunities. However, there are several ways to trade in currencies, and many unsuspecting traders have been burned by aggressive marketing campaigns and gimmicks luring them into unfavorable trading environments. In this book, best-selling trading author Carley Garner covers everything new currency traders need to know to avoid those pitfalls and start earning big profits. Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets begins by demystifying all the essentials, from quotes and calculations to the unique language of Forex trading. Readers learn all they need to know about choosing trading platforms and brokerage firms; working with leverage; controlling transaction costs; managing liquidity, margins, and risks; and much more. Garner thoroughly explains the currency spot market (Forex); currency futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME); and currency ETFs. She candidly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each, cutting through the "smoke and mirrors" often associated with currency trading. Readers will also find a full section on currency market speculation, including a clear introduction to fundamental and seasonal analysis in currency markets. With her guidance, new currency traders can identify the markets and approaches that best fit their objectives, and avoid the pitfalls that have often victimized their predecessors.
Download or read book Agricultural Product Prices written by William G. Tomek and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Relationship Between Spot and Futures Prices in Stock Index Futures Markets written by David Michael Modest and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Futures Trading and the Level and Volatility of Spot Prices written by Ronald Britto and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Between Futures and Spot Markets written by Jedrzej Bialkowski and published by VDM Publishing. This book was released on 2007-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last decade stock markets have witnessed several financial crises. As a result of increasing market integration, even financial distress in a minor market is presently capable of shaking the largest world markets. Therefore, to achieve success in such complex environments, finance professionals need to have a better understanding of the structure of stock market linkages. This book presents a Markov Switching approach to modelling linkages among financial markets. In addition to the problem of modelling intermarket dependencies, the book discusses and analyses the importance of index arbitrage on emerging stock markets. Finally, the methods of valuation of forward and future contracts on zero-coupon bonds in a framework of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model are presented. The book is addressed to finance professionals, such as mutual and hedge fund managers, risk managers and market regulators. It is also of value to researchers in international finance, risk management and emerging markets.
Download or read book Strategic Interaction Between Futures and Spot Markets written by José Luis Ferreira and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Relationship Between Spot and Futures Prices in Stock Index Futures Markets written by Bradford Cornell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading Mechanisms Speculative Behavior of Investors and the Volatility of Prices written by Hun Y. Park and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the volatility of spot prices (dealership market) with that of futures prices (auction market) to test the implications of different trading mechanisms for the volatility of prices. First, a natural estimator of the volatility is sued. Using the intraday data of the major Market Index and its futures prices, we show that the volatility of opening prices is higher than that of closing prices not only in the spot market but in the futures market, and that the intraday volatility patterns are U-shaped in both markets. Of particular interest is that futures prices do not appear to be as volatile as spot prices when the natural estimator of volatility is used, to the contrary of the conventional wisdom. We argue that the different volatility patterns during the day are not necessarily due to the different trading mechanisms, auction market versus dealership market. Instead, after developing a simple theoretical model of speculative prices, we show that at least part of the different volatility patterns during the day may be attributable to speculative behavior of investors based on heterogeneous information. In addition, we further investigate the volatilities of spot and futures prices using a temporal estimator of price volatility as an alternative to the natural estimator. Based on the temporal estimator, we cannot find any systematic pattern of volatilities during the day in both spot and futures markets, and that futures prices appear to be more volatile than spot prices in terms of how quickly the price moves beyond a given unit price level, but not in terms of how much the price changes during a given unit time interval. Some policy implications are also discussed.
Download or read book Strategic Interaction Between Futures and Spot Markets written by José Luis Ferreira García and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Equilibrium of Spot and Futures Markets Under Uncertainty written by Roy Radner and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relation between equilibrium and optimum under uncertainty is explored in a model of an economy with spot markets at each date and with an incomplete system of futures markets for delivery contingent on future events. An equilibrium is a consistent set of plans, spot prices, and conditional forecasts of future prices. For the economy to achieve an optimum relative to a given structure of information, economic agents must be able to buy insurance against changes in spot prices. The role of spot prices as information signals is emphasized. (Author).
Download or read book International Stock Markets Linkages and Arbitrage Between Futures and Spot Markets written by Je̜drzej Białkowski and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading with the Future and Futures Trading written by Leonardo Auernheimer and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this booklet, one of a series intended to apply economic principles to major social and political issues of the day, it is proposed that speculation is often misunderstood, particularly in the operation of the futures markets. These are markets in which obligations to consummate sales and purchases at some time in the future are traded at a price specified today. Part 1 of the booklet offers a simplified analysis of some of the elementary economics of transactions involving time. Part 2 analyzes the nature of futures and options markets, and discusses the reasons for their existence, their evolution, and some of the basics involved in their operations. Part 3 is an account of the entities subject to futures and options trading, such as commodities, bonds, shares of corporations, and foreign exchange, and describes the most prominent features of the futures and options markets related to such entities. Finally, Part 4 discusses the social usefulness of futures markets, a few of the common criticisms, and the role of government regulation. (IS)
Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by South Western Educational Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book begins by building upon the established, conventional principles of finance that you've have already learned in your principles course. The authors then move into psychological principles of behavioral finance, including heuristics and biases, overconfidence, emotion and social forces. You immediately see how human behavior influences the decisions of individual investors and professional finance practitioners, managers, and markets. You also gain a strong understanding of how social forces impact individuals' choices. The book clearly explains what behavioral finance indicates about observed market outcomes as well as how psychological biases potentially impact the behavior of managers. The book's solid academic approach provides opportunities for you to utilize theory and complete applications in every chapter as you learn the implications of behavioral finance on retirement, pensions, education, debiasing, and client management. The book spends a significant amount of time examining how today's practitioners can use behavioral finance to further their professional success.
