Download or read book Bet Smart The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing written by and published by Abrazol Publishing. This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bet Smart written by Stefan Hollos and published by Abrazol Publishing. This book was released on 2008 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1956, a physicist named John Kelly working at Bell Labs published a paper titled "A New Interpretation of Information Rate." In the paper he draws an analogy between the outcomes of a gambling game and the transmission of symbols over a communications channel. For a positive expectation game, Kelly showed that a betting system based on a fixed fraction of the bankroll can make the bankroll grow at an exponential rate in the long run. The exponential growth rate in this case is directly analogous to the rate of information transmission through a communications channel. This book examines the Kelly system in detail. Applications of the Kelly system in both gambling and investing are considered. Python code for calculating the Kelly fractions for both a single stock investment and an investment in two stocks simultaneously is included. Included is an introductory review chapter on the probability theory needed to analyze gambling systems in general.There is also a chapter on some of the more commonly used gambling systems such as the Martingale system. This book will be useful for anyone interested in a good mathematical introduction to gambling systems in general, and the Kelly system in particular.
Download or read book Fortune s Formula written by William Poundstone and published by Hill and Wang. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.
Download or read book Simple Trading Strategies That Work written by and published by Abrazol Publishing. This book was released on with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fortune s Formula written by William Poundstone and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2005 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1961, MIT mathematics professor Ed Thorp made a small Vegas fortune by "counting cards"; his 1962 bestseller, "Beat the Dealer," made the phrase a household word. With Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, Thorp next conquered the roulette tables. In this prosaic but fascinating cultural history, the author of "How Would You Move Mt. Fuji?" tells not only what they did but how they did it.
Download or read book The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 883 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.
Download or read book Contributions to the Theory of Kelly Betting with Applications to Stock Trading written by Chung-Han Hsieh and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kelly Betting is a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a sequence of gambles which are typically repeated in an independent and identically distributed manner. Within this setting, the theory is aimed at maximizing the expected value of the logarithmic growth of wealth. Many papers in the existing literature indicate that such a maximization leads to a number of desirable properties. These include [superior long-term growth of wealth, competitive optimality] and a certain [myopic property]. This betting scheme has also been criticized as being too aggressive with respect to various risk metrics. To address this, many papers suggest ad-hoc ways for scaling down the bet size. In our first collection of results, we provide a new perspective on this aggressiveness issue. That is, we show that in some cases, the Kelly optimum may actually lead to bets which are too conservative rather than too aggressive. To make this more precise, we provide a result which we call the [Restricted Betting Theorem]. Subsequently, we point out some additional negatives of the Kelly-based theory by quantifying what difficulties are encountered with various approximations which are used in some of the literature. Throughout this dissertation, we emphasize the feedback control system point of view and the ramification of our results in the context of stock trading. Following the initial results above, we report on our research aimed at improving the existing Kelly-based theory. Our second collection of results, which we call [Drawdown-Modulated Betting], is focused on mitigating the potentially large drawdown for a rather general class of betting schemes including the classical Kelly Betting scheme as special case. Motivated by the fact that this issue is of paramount concern from a risk management perspective, we prove a result, called the [Drawdown Modulation Lemma], which characterizes investment strategies guaranteeing that the percentage drawdown is no greater than a prespecified level for all sequences of admissible returns. With the aid of this lemma, we show that investment functions can be expressed as a linear time-varying feedback control parameterized by a feedback gain and leading to satisfaction of the drawdown specification. Subsequently, a generalization of the lemma to the portfolio setting is also provided. In addition, with the risk-reward pair being drawdown and expected return, we prove that the drawdown-modulated feedback strategy "dominates" the classical linear time-invariant (LTI) feedback strategy. In the parlance of finance, the LTI strategy is said to be [inefficient]. The third collection of results in this dissertation, called [Frequency-Based Betting], is focused on investigating how optimization and expected logarithmic growth performance vary with respect to betting frequency and on how our formulation and results apply to the stock market. Going beyond existing literature, in this part of the work, the [frequency], or equivalently the number of stages [n] between trades, is included as an additional optimization parameter in our analysis. For a single stock, in the absence of transaction costs, we show that high-frequency trading is [unbeatable] in the sense of expected logarithmic growth. Moreover, we prove that if a stock satisfies a certain"sufficient attractiveness" condition, then the buy-and-hold strategy with [n]> 1 can match the performance of the high-frequency strategy with [n] = 1. Subsequently, when we generalize the notion of sufficient attractiveness from the single-stock case to a portfolio with multiple risky assets, a similar result is obtained. One highlight in this part of the dissertation involves the notion of a "dominant asset" which we define. When such an asset is present in the portfolio, we prove that the optimal performance requires putting "all eggs in one basket." As a consequence, we see that the performance of the high-frequency trader is matched by that of the buy and holder. The final collection of results in this dissertation is motivated by the fact that a trader's interactions with the market are not instantaneous. This leads us to extend our frequency-based framework to include [delay] in trade execution. For the case when a single unit of delay is present, in contrast to existing literature on Kelly Betting, it turns out that bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. This leads to a problem formulation in which the no-bankruptcy issue is cast as a [state positivity] problem. Subsequently, we prove two theorems. The first theorem gives sufficient conditions for avoidance of bankruptcy and the second gives necessary conditions. Some other technical results regarding state positivity are given as enrichments to the theory; e.g., we provide an example which suggests that when delay is present, the buy-and-hold strategy can achieve strictly higher performance than high-frequency trading
Download or read book Trading Bases written by Joe Peta and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014-03-04 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true. Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500. In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed. Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.
Download or read book The Adventures Of A Modern Renaissance Academic In Investing And Gambling written by William T Ziemba and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-08-23 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book tells the story of how financial markets have evolved over time and became increasingly more complex. The author, a successful and experienced trader, who among other things won the 2015 battle of the quants futures contest held in New York, shares how one can navigate today's dangerous financial markets and be successful. Readers at all levels will benefit from his analysis and many real life examples and experiences. The coverage is broad and there is considerable discussion on ways to stay out of trouble, protect oneself and grow one's assets. The author was the first one to do turn of the year January effect trades in the futures markets starting in the beginning of S&P 500 futures trading in 1982. That has been successful and the author explains his ideas and experiences from the beginning in simple markets to the current, very complex markets we have in 2017.The author discusses the various ways that traders and investors lose money in the financial markets. Many examples are provided, including Long Term Capital Management, ENRON, Amarath, Neiderhoffer's funds and many major companies such as Lehman Brothers, Society Generale, Saloman Brothers. This is invaluable to understanding ways to avoid such losses.The author discusses great investors, their methods and evaluation and the authors' work with several of them. Risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies are described through actual use. Asset-liability models for pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions devised by the author are described. The author uses racetrack bias ideas in behavorial finance in trading index futures and options. Large stock market crashes that can be predicted are discussed with several models of the author and others. Many mini crashes including the January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections that are plausible but largely unpredictable are described and how they were dealt with successfully.Along with ways to deal with them, investment in top quality racehorses, oriental carpets, real estate and other interesting investments are covered. The author was instrumental in viewing racing as a stock market. The ideas are used by the top racing syndicates as well as hedge funds.The book proceeds by weaving these aspects of the financial markets in the modern era into a story of the author's academic, professional and personal life. This is told through the people he met and worked with and the academic and personal travel he had all over the world this past half century. The text is simply written with details, sources and references in the notes of each chapter. Details of various important events and how they evolved are described. There are numerous color and black and white photos in the text plus graphs, tables etc. in the notes to tell the story. The teaching and research into various financial and gambling markets takes the reader to interesting places around the world. These include the US and its many stock market ups and downs, Japan when they were ruling the financial world and then they collapsed, the UK visits with lectures, teaching and research work at their great Universities including Cambridge and Oxford, Europe with many activities in France, Italy, Germany and other places, to Asia including discussions about travels to Persia, Turkey, Singapore, Korea, China, Afghanistan, Russia and other countries. Also discussed are visits to U.S. universities including Chicago, MIT, Berkeley, UCLA and Washington. His work with horse racing syndicates took him to Australia and Hong Kong. Crises like those in Greece, US housing and internet and the flash crash are discussed.
Download or read book Investing written by Robert Hagstrom and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-08 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this updated second edition, well-known investment author Hagstrom explores basic and fundamental investing concepts in a range of fields outside of economics, including physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy, and literature.
Download or read book Sports Betting For Dummies written by Swain Scheps and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sports gambling book you can bet on Sports betting combines America's national pastime (sports) with its national passion (gambling). In the U.S., more than a third of the population bets on at least one sporting event every year. With the recent lifting of the federal ban on sports gambling, states are pushing legislation to take advantage of the new potential source of revenue. The best sports betting books are data driven, statistically honest, and offer ways to take action. Sports Betting For Dummies will cover the basics, as well as delving into more nuanced topics. You’ll find all the need-to-know information on types of bets, statistics, handicapping fundamentals, and more. Betting on football, basketball, baseball, and other sports Betting on special events, such as the Superbowl or the Olympics Money management Betting on the internet With handy tips, tricks, and tools, Sports Betting For Dummies shows you how to place the right bet at the right time—to get the right payoff.
Download or read book Day Trading written by Justin Kuepper and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2015-04-10 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All You'll Ever Need to Trade from Home When most people hear the term "day trader," they imagine the stock market floor packed with people yelling 'Buy' and 'Sell' - or someone who went for broke and ended up just that. These days, investing isn't just for the brilliant or the desperate—it's a smart and necessary move to ensure financial wellbeing. To the newcomer, day trading can be a confusing process: where do you begin, and how can you approach trading in a careful yet effective way? With Day Trading you'll get the basics, then: Learn the Truth About Trading Understand The Psychology of Trading Master Charting and Pattern-recognition Study Trading Options Establish Trading Strategies & Money Management Day Trading will let you make the most out of the free market from the comfort of your own computer.
Download or read book Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets written by Donald B. Hausch and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 679 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A reprint of one of the classic volumes on racetrack efficiency, this book is the only one in its field that deals with the racetrack betting market in-depth, containing all the important historical papers on racetrack efficiency. As evidenced by the collection of articles, the understanding of racetrack betting is clearly drawn from, and has correspondingly returned something to, all the fields of psychology, economics, finance, statistics, mathematics and management science.
Download or read book The Ultimate Sports Betting Secrets written by A B Lawal and published by . This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine if you had an Almanac with tomorrows sports results and events.Imagine what you could do if you knew the outcome before it actually happened. Impossible? This book teaches you how sports investing works and how you can win consistently from sports betting. Sports has been my life since childhood. I was trying to crunch the code to predict tomorrow's games. In fact, this may sound a little bit like a back to the future fairy tale, but we've come as close as we can to the results of Tomorrows Almanac. I love sports betting.During the last 13 years, I've been gathering sports data for Major League sports like Major League Baseball, Nhl Hockey, the NFL football and NBA basketball. We crunching the numbers and we're comparing the stats. I'm analyzing and back testing everything for years and years to crack the sports code to find those repeating patterns and trends to understand what makes teams win and what makes teams lose. And you know what we found, we found that history always repeats itself. This is true, especially in sports where the rules are strictly define the outcomes in these situations are very predictable. Of course there are lucky strikes and conditions that are impossible to put into perspective. However, those are very small percentages. If you know the past outcome of an event, you can predict the results for the game in similar circumstances with a high degree of probability. As I said before, the past is never a full indication of what will happen in the future and there is always room for surprises, but again, this is what makes sports fun to watch. Am I right? However, what is the chance of a team with similar power and player statistics will produce a similar outcome in a similar game in similar circumstances? What's that percentage? 86.5% that's right. An 86.5% of the cases there will be no surprises and to prediction will come. Absolutely true. Our Zcode investing software is the best system in the market because it keeps making us consistent gains each and every month. Truth is we love sports, but we hate to gamble. What we call this is sports investing, which is similar to any other trading like stocks, stock options, and forex trades. This is just way more predictable than today's flawed economic models with crisis's and bankruptcy events. Every day the software is gathering thousands and thousands and thousands of sports data and results, every single event, every single detail, every single player and every single team. Then it starts the simulation with over 80 parameters in the zcode formula to come up with a precise and easy to use prediction and not only tells you who is going to win, but also and most importantly, where the value is, which means more money can be made guessing. To learn more about how you can create a consistent $1500 monthly from sports betting, just order this book right now!
Download or read book Win By Not Losing A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk written by Nick Atkeson and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-10-18 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A DISCIPLINED STRATEGY FOR AVOIDING MAJOR DOWN MARKETS AND PARTICIPATING IN BULLISH MARKETS Your financial advisor's strategy to buy-and-hold a diversified equity portfolio sounded good. Diversification promised to protect your wealth. Now, however, more than a decade of hard data shows it didn't work. And, more than likely after a decade of multiple financial shocks and crashes, your account balance is not what you hoped it would be when you started saving years ago. Much of your investment life has been spent just trying to make back what was lost. Win By Not Losing reveals how you can make smarter, more profi table investments by first protecting your capital from major bear equity markets. It also shows you how to identify major bullish equity market trends and guides you on how best to participate. By avoiding the major downs and catching the ups, your portfolio compounds gains and allows you to achieve your financial goals. Chasing returns leads to the poorhouse. With this book's disciplined system for knowing when to buy, what to buy, and when to sell, you can build and protect your portfolio through active management techniques. It walks you step-by-step through growing your portfolio in bull and bear market cycles. You will master a concrete investing method that lets you trade with emotionless confidence and precision. Packed with links to online resources and personal tips from successful, high-profile traders, Win By Not Losing gives you everything you need to: Identify the market metrics that are important to building wealth Detect and measure the market signals foreshadowing major moves Build a portfolio with strong downside protection, full transparency, immediate liquidity, low fees, and incredible risk-adjusted returns Your portfolio returns will continue to be disappointing unless you act. It's time to make up for lost profits by taking an active, professional, and nonemotional portfolio management approach to avoid major losses and capture gains. Win By Not Losing provides everything you need to build wealth in today's stock market. Stop watching your money rise and fall without signifi cant net gain with a "buy-and-hold" strategy and optimize your positions as market sentiment changes. In a nonappreciating market, investors must actively manage equities to acquire gains. Win By Not Losing presents an active approach that uses rigorous risk-management techniques to preserve your wealth and generate high returns in all equity market environments. Prominent authors and lecturers Nick Atkeson and Andrew Houghton have culled the best of their work to help you revitalize your trading habits, protect your capital, and beat the market. Through real-world stories demonstrating fi nancial theory in action and how-to instructions for executing their strategic investment approach, these expert authors enable you to: Achieve sizable returns through an investment strategy equally focused on when to invest and when to sell Avoid major down markets and fully benefit from major up markets Access unique financial information to help you stay current, think ahead, and build and protect your wealth Whether you're an independent investor or a professional financial advisor, this refreshing look at investing will change the way you see the markets. Forget what you know about modern portfolio theory and trade to make money in today's markets with Win By Not Losing. "Anyone with some experience in the stock market, especially the person who wants to move beyond a buy and hold strategy, can find useful tidbits in this book.” ReadingTheMarkets.com
Download or read book Doyle Brunson s Super System written by Doyle Brunson and published by Cardoza Publishing. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classic book is considered by the pros to be the best book ever written on poker! Jam-packed with advanced strategies, theories, tactics and money-making techniques no serious poker player can afford to be without this hard-hitting information. Includes fifty pages of the most precise poker statistics ever published. Features chapters written by pokers biggest superstars, such as Dave Sklansky, Mike Caro, Chip Reese, Bobby Baldwin, and Doyle two world champions and three master theorists. Essential strategies, advanced play, and no-nonsense winning advice on making money at 7-card stud (razz, high-low split, cards speak, and declare), draw poker, lowball, and hold'em (limit and no-limit).This is a must-read. 605 pages
Download or read book An Alternative to the Kelly System written by David Blacklock and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
