Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making Synthesis and Assessment Product 5 2 Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Review of the U S Climate Change Science Program s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5 2 Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-02-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Download or read book Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by Climate Change Science Program and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.
Download or read book Our Changing Planet written by Climate Change Science Program (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.
Download or read book Shaping the Message Distorting the Science written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Download or read book Addressing Climate Change in Local Water Agency Plans written by David G. Groves and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach for planning under deep uncertainty, Robust Decision Making (RDM), and demonstrates its use by the El Dorado Irrigation District (EID). Using RDM, the authors and EID tested the robustness of current long-term water management plans and more robust alternatives across more than 50 futures reflecting different assumptions about future climate, urban growth, and the availability of important new supplies.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Interdisciplinary Research on Climate and Energy Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-12-16 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the role and importance of interdisciplinary research in addressing key issues in climate and energy decision making. For over 30 years, an interdisciplinary team of faculty and students anchored at Carnegie Mellon University, joined by investigators and students from a number of other collaborating institutions across North America, Europe, and Australia, have worked together to better understand the global changes that are being caused by both human activities and natural causes. This book tells the story of their successful interdisciplinary work. With each chapter written in the first person, the authors have three key objectives: (1) to document and provide an accessible account of how they have framed and addressed a range of the key problems that are posed by the human dimensions of global change; (2) to illustrate how investigators and graduate students have worked together productively across different disciplines and locations on common problems; and (3) to encourage funders and scholars across the world to undertake similar large- scale interdisciplinary research activities to meet the world’s largest challenges. Exploring topics such as energy efficiency, public health, and climate adaptation, and with a final chapter dedicated to lessons learned, this innovative volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of climate change, energy transitions and environmental studies more broadly.
Download or read book New Perspectives in Climate Change written by Emerald Group Publishing Limited and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2015-10-29 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Perspectives in Climate Change is a unique collection of articles that discuss key areas of research among academics in the field. These include the following: - Climate change adaptation - Vulnerability to and mitigation of climate change This collection provides an unparalleled insight into the subject of climate change
Download or read book Adapting to an Uncertain Climate written by Tiago Capela Lourenço and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-04-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops.
Download or read book Effective Risk Communication written by Joseph Arvai and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-30 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are two questions often asked of risk communication: what has been learned from past work, and what is needed to push the field forward? Drawing on the experience of leading risk researchers and practitioners, Effective Risk Communication focuses on answering these questions. The book draws together new examples of research and practice from contexts as diverse as energy generation, human health, nuclear waste, climate change, food choice, and social media. This book treats risk communication as much more than the interchange of risk information between experts and non-experts; rather, it aims to emphasise the diversity in viewpoints and practices. In each specially commissioned chapter, the authors reflect on the theoretical and applied underpinnings of their best projects and comment on how their approach could be used effectively by others. Building upon each other, the chapters will provoke new discussion and action around a discipline which many feel is neither meeting important needs in practice, nor living up to its potential in research. Through a more careful examination of the work already done in risk communication, the book will help develop better, more reflective practice for the future.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Risk written by Gabriele Bammer and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2012-05-04 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.
Download or read book Risk Assessment Methods for Biological and Chemical Hazards in Food written by Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-10-28 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has been extensively developed in several scientific fields, such as environmental science, economics, and civil engineering, among others. In the aftermath of the SPS and GATT agreements on the use of risk analysis framework in food trade, signed in the 1990s, international organisations and governments adopted risk assessment as a science-based process to ensure food safety along the food chain. The food industry can also benefit from the use of this approach for food process optimisation and quality assurance. Risk Assessment Methods for Biological and Chemical Hazards in Food introduces the reader to quantitative risk assessment methods encompassing general concepts to specific applications to biological and chemical hazards in foods. In the first section, the book presents food risk assessment as methodology and addresses, more specifically, new trends and approaches such as the development of risk rating methods, risk metrics, risk-benefit assessment studies and quality assessment methods. Section II is dedicated to biological hazards. This section identifies the most relevant biological hazards along the food chain and provides an overview on the types of predictive microbiology models used to describe the microbial response along the food chain. Chapter 12 specifically deals with cross contamination and the quantitative methods that can be applied to describe this relevant microbial process. The development and application of dose-response models (i.e. mathematical function describing the relationship between pathogen dose and health response) are also covered in this section. In Section III, the book translates risk assessment concepts into the area of chemical hazards, defining the process steps to determine chemical risk and describing the uncertainty and variability sources associated with chemicals. Key Features: Presents new trends and approaches in the field of risk assessment in foods Risk assessment concepts are illustrated by practical examples in the food sector Discusses how quantitative information and models are integrated in a quantitative risk asssment framework Provides examples of applications of quantitative chemical risk assessment in risk management The book, written by renowned experts in their field, is a comprehensive collection of quantitative methods and approaches applied to risk assessment in foods. It can be used as an extensive guide for food safety practitioners and researchers to perform quantitative risk assessment in foods
