Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Hackers written by Cameron Davidson-Pilon and published by Addison-Wesley Professional. This book was released on 2015-09-30 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Hackers written by Cameron Davidson-Pilon and published by Addison-Wesley Professional. This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The next generation of problems will not have deterministic solutions - the solutions will be statistical that rely on mountains, or mounds, of data. Bayesian methods offer a very flexible and extendible framework to solve these types of problems. For programming students with minimal background in mathematics, this example-heavy guide emphasizes the new technologies that have allowed the inference to be abstracted from complicated underlying mathematics. Using Bayesian Methods for Hackers, students can start leveraging powerful Bayesian tools right now -- gradually deepening their theoretical knowledge while already achieving powerful results in areas ranging from marketing to finance.

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Hackers written by Cameron Davidson-Pilon and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning written by David Barber and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-02-02 with total page 739 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.

Download or read book Practical Probabilistic Programming written by Avi Pfeffer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2016-03-29 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Summary Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In it, you'll learn how to use the PP paradigm to model application domains and then express those probabilistic models in code. Although PP can seem abstract, in this book you'll immediately work on practical examples, like using the Figaro language to build a spam filter and applying Bayesian and Markov networks, to diagnose computer system data problems and recover digital images. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology The data you accumulate about your customers, products, and website users can help you not only to interpret your past, it can also help you predict your future! Probabilistic programming uses code to draw probabilistic inferences from data. By applying specialized algorithms, your programs assign degrees of probability to conclusions. This means you can forecast future events like sales trends, computer system failures, experimental outcomes, and many other critical concerns. About the Book Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In this book, you’ll immediately work on practical examples like building a spam filter, diagnosing computer system data problems, and recovering digital images. You’ll discover probabilistic inference, where algorithms help make extended predictions about issues like social media usage. Along the way, you’ll learn to use functional-style programming for text analysis, object-oriented models to predict social phenomena like the spread of tweets, and open universe models to gauge real-life social media usage. The book also has chapters on how probabilistic models can help in decision making and modeling of dynamic systems. What's Inside Introduction to probabilistic modeling Writing probabilistic programs in Figaro Building Bayesian networks Predicting product lifecycles Decision-making algorithms About the Reader This book assumes no prior exposure to probabilistic programming. Knowledge of Scala is helpful. About the Author Avi Pfeffer is the principal developer of the Figaro language for probabilistic programming. Table of Contents PART 1 INTRODUCING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING AND FIGARO Probabilistic programming in a nutshell A quick Figaro tutorial Creating a probabilistic programming application PART 2 WRITING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMS Probabilistic models and probabilistic programs Modeling dependencies with Bayesian and Markov networks Using Scala and Figaro collections to build up models Object-oriented probabilistic modeling Modeling dynamic systems PART 3 INFERENCE The three rules of probabilistic inference Factored inference algorithms Sampling algorithms Solving other inference tasks Dynamic reasoning and parameter learning

Download or read book Probabilistic Machine Learning written by Kevin P. Murphy and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-03-01 with total page 858 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.

Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Download or read book Machine Learning for Hackers written by Drew Conway and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2012-02-13 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you’re an experienced programmer interested in crunching data, this book will get you started with machine learning—a toolkit of algorithms that enables computers to train themselves to automate useful tasks. Authors Drew Conway and John Myles White help you understand machine learning and statistics tools through a series of hands-on case studies, instead of a traditional math-heavy presentation. Each chapter focuses on a specific problem in machine learning, such as classification, prediction, optimization, and recommendation. Using the R programming language, you’ll learn how to analyze sample datasets and write simple machine learning algorithms. Machine Learning for Hackers is ideal for programmers from any background, including business, government, and academic research. Develop a naïve Bayesian classifier to determine if an email is spam, based only on its text Use linear regression to predict the number of page views for the top 1,000 websites Learn optimization techniques by attempting to break a simple letter cipher Compare and contrast U.S. Senators statistically, based on their voting records Build a “whom to follow” recommendation system from Twitter data

Download or read book Bayesian Time Series Models written by David Barber and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis written by Borek Puza and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2015-10-01 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis is a book on statistical methods for analysing a wide variety of data. The book consists of 12 chapters, starting with basic concepts and covering numerous topics, including Bayesian estimation, decision theory, prediction, hypothesis testing, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, finite population inference, biased sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. The book contains many exercises, all with worked solutions, including complete computer code. It is suitable for self-study or a semester-long course, with three hours of lectures and one tutorial per week for 13 weeks.

Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.

Download or read book Bayes Rule written by James V. Stone and published by Sebtel Press. This book was released on 2013-06-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this richly illustrated book, the tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.

Download or read book Learning Bayesian Models with R written by Dr. Hari M. Koduvely and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2015-10-28 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Become an expert in Bayesian Machine Learning methods using R and apply them to solve real-world big data problems About This Book Understand the principles of Bayesian Inference with less mathematical equations Learn state-of-the art Machine Learning methods Familiarize yourself with the recent advances in Deep Learning and Big Data frameworks with this step-by-step guide Who This Book Is For This book is for statisticians, analysts, and data scientists who want to build a Bayes-based system with R and implement it in their day-to-day models and projects. It is mainly intended for Data Scientists and Software Engineers who are involved in the development of Advanced Analytics applications. To understand this book, it would be useful if you have basic knowledge of probability theory and analytics and some familiarity with the programming language R. What You Will Learn Set up the R environment Create a classification model to predict and explore discrete variables Get acquainted with Probability Theory to analyze random events Build Linear Regression models Use Bayesian networks to infer the probability distribution of decision variables in a problem Model a problem using Bayesian Linear Regression approach with the R package BLR Use Bayesian Logistic Regression model to classify numerical data Perform Bayesian Inference on massively large data sets using the MapReduce programs in R and Cloud computing In Detail Bayesian Inference provides a unified framework to deal with all sorts of uncertainties when learning patterns form data using machine learning models and use it for predicting future observations. However, learning and implementing Bayesian models is not easy for data science practitioners due to the level of mathematical treatment involved. Also, applying Bayesian methods to real-world problems requires high computational resources. With the recent advances in computation and several open sources packages available in R, Bayesian modeling has become more feasible to use for practical applications today. Therefore, it would be advantageous for all data scientists and engineers to understand Bayesian methods and apply them in their projects to achieve better results. Learning Bayesian Models with R starts by giving you a comprehensive coverage of the Bayesian Machine Learning models and the R packages that implement them. It begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of probability theory and R programming for those who are new to the subject. Then the book covers some of the important machine learning methods, both supervised and unsupervised learning, implemented using Bayesian Inference and R. Every chapter begins with a theoretical description of the method explained in a very simple manner. Then, relevant R packages are discussed and some illustrations using data sets from the UCI Machine Learning repository are given. Each chapter ends with some simple exercises for you to get hands-on experience of the concepts and R packages discussed in the chapter. The last chapters are devoted to the latest development in the field, specifically Deep Learning, which uses a class of Neural Network models that are currently at the frontier of Artificial Intelligence. The book concludes with the application of Bayesian methods on Big Data using the Hadoop and Spark frameworks. Style and approach The book first gives you a theoretical description of the Bayesian models in simple language, followed by details of its implementation in the R package. Each chapter has illustrations for the use of Bayesian model and the corresponding R package, using data sets from the UCI Machine Learning repository. Each chapter also contains sufficient exercises for you to get more hands-on practice.

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Download or read book Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python written by Osvaldo A. Martin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-12-28 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.

Download or read book Bayesian Programming written by Pierre Bessiere and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in natur

Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems