Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation written by Douglas Laxton and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation written by Mr.Douglas Laxton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-11-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Download or read book Asymmetric effects of economic activity on inflation written by Douglas Laxton and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Creation and Destruction written by Pietro Garibaldi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The view that tight and easy monetary policy produces asymmetric effects on economic activity has long been recognized in policy debates and in the academic profession (Johnson, 1962). The behavior of the U.S. economy during the 1990-92 recession, when successive cuts in the federal fund rate failed to produce economic recovery, seemed to confirm the traditional view. Furthermore, recently collected empirical evidence for both the United States (De Long and Summers 1988, Cover 1992, Morgan 1993) and Europe (Karras, 1996) strongly support the hypothesis that negative money-supply shocks and/or increases in interest rates reduce output more than monetary expansions raise it.

Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending written by Michael B. Devereux and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect is smaller at lower financing costs of fiscal policy. Using threshold regression models on U.S. data, the paper provides new evidence that expansionary government spending is more conducive to short-run growth when real rates are low. It also finds asymmetric effects on interest rates and inflation, and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.

Download or read book The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy written by Richard Arden and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock, measured by a change in interest rates, affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non-linearities which we have introduced explicitly.

Download or read book Asymmetry in the U S Output Inflation Nexus written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the proposition that there is a significant asymmetry in the U.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply conditions are disinflationary. The important policy implication of this asymmetry is that it can be very costly if the economy overheats because this will necessitate a severe tightening in monetary conditions in order to reestablish inflation control. The small model of the U.S. outputinflation process developed in the paper shows that the seeds of large recessions, such as that in 1981-82, are planted by allowing the economy to overheat. This type of asymmetry implies that the measure of excess demand which is appropriate in estimating the Phillips curve cannot have a zero mean; instead, this mean must be negative if inflation is to be stationary. The paper also shows that a failure to account for this important implication of asymmetry can explain why some other researchers may have been misled into falsely accepting the linear model. The empirical results presented in the paper show that the conclusions regarding asymmetry are robust to a number of tests for sensitivity to changes in the method used to estimate potential output and in the specification of the Phillips curve.

Download or read book On Asymmetric Effects in a Monetary Policy Rule written by Anna Sznajderska and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asymmetric effects in a monetary policy rule could appear due to asymmetric preferences of the central bank or/and due to nonlinearities in the economic system. It might be suspected that monetary authorities are more aggressive to the inflation rate when it is above its target level than when it is below. It also seems probable that monetary authorities have different preferences and react more strongly when the level of economic activity is low than when it is high. In this paper we investigate whether the reaction function of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is asymmetric according to the level of inflation gap and the level of output gap. Moreover, we test whether these asymmetries might possibly stem from the nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. Threshold models are applied and two cases of unknown and known threshold value are investigated.

Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy written by Tiff Macklem and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent empirical studies examining the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on economic activity do not systematically control for the non-monetary sources of fluctuations as well as the endogenous component of monetary policy. The evidence of asymmetry could simply reflect the failure to control for these omitted factors. In this paper, we reconsider the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the context of a small open economy using information from the yield curve to measure the stance of domestic monetary policy, while allowing both real and monetary foreign shocks to have asymmetric effects on output. Our principal finding is that while controlling for foreign factors dampens the asymmetry in the effects of exogenous domestic monetary shocks, there is nonetheless strong evidence of asymmetry when the effects of the exogenous and systematic components of the yield spread are considered jointly. We find no evidence of asymmetry in the effects of real factors.

Download or read book The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions written by The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic variables are known to move asymmetrically over the business cycle: quickly and sharply during crises, but slowly and gradually during recoveries. Not known is the fact that this asymmetry is stronger in countries with less-developed financial systems. This new fact is documented using cross-country data on loan interest rates, investment, and output. The fact is then explained using a learning model with endogenous flows of information about economic conditions. Asymmetry is shown to be stronger in less-developed countries because these countries have greater financial frictions, which are captured in the model by higher monitoring and bankruptcy costs. These greater frictions magnify the crisis reactions of lending rates and economic activity to shocks and then delay their recovery by restricting the generation of information after the crisis. Empirical evidence and a quantitative exploration of the model show that this explanation is consistent with the data.

Download or read book The impact of inflation on the level of economic activity written by H.S. Odeh (author) and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-21 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.

Download or read book Asymmetric Responses of Nominal Rates TIPS Rates Break Even Inflation Rates and the Stock Bond Correlation to Macroeconomic Announcements written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Utilizing daily instantaneous forward rates of nominal and inflation-indexed bonds as well as realizations of stock and bond index returns, I examine the informational content of a broad set of macroeconomic announcements. I find evidence that, with a few exceptions, price variables mainly move break-even inflation rates, while real variables move TIPS rates and/or break-even inflation rates. An analysis of movements in the stock-bond correlation finds that, with some exceptions, expected future interest rates are the important component of the informational content of expansionary announcements to production variables and employment variables. In recessions, I find evidence that expectations of future economic growth or an equity risk premium are the important news conveyed by shocks to some production and employment variables, again with some exceptions. Similarly, for price variables I find evidence that in expansions shocks either proxy for future economic activity or provide information about expected future nominal rates which investors mistakenly use to value equities rather than expected real rates. In recessions (at least for core PPI) some evidence points to the news content referencing future economic growth or the equity risk premium. Consistent with previous results in the literature, results on movements in the stock-bond correlation agree with rising correlations in expansions and falling correlations in recessions. Additionally, in looking at monetary policy shocks to the federal funds target rate I notice that expectations of growth or the equity risk premium are embedded in shocks that `go against the grain' of the expected path given an economic state (negative expansionary and positive recessionary shocks). Formal tests for state and sign asymmetries in the magnitudes of responses to macroeconomic shocks generally yield sparse significant results, though for production variables mainly indicate greater effects of expansionary over recessionary an.

Download or read book Essays in Asymmetric Empirical Macroeconomics written by Mohammad Iqbal Ahmed and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays in asymmetric empirical macroeconomics. Making macroeconomic policies has become increasingly difficult because of intricate relationships among macroeconomic variables. In this dissertation, we apply state-of-the-art macroeconometric techniques to investigate asymmetric relationships between key macroeconomic aggregates. Our findings have important macroeconomic policy implications. An analogue to the Phillips curve shows a positive relationship between inflation and capacity utilization. Some recent empirical work has shown that this relationship has broken down when using data after the mid-1980s and several popular explanations for this changing relationship, including advancements in technology and globalization, were put forward as possible explanations. In the first essay, we empirically investigate this issue using several threshold error correction models. We find, in the long run, a 1% increase in the rate of inflation leads to approximately a 0.0046% increase in capacity utilization. The asymmetric error correction structure shows that changes in capacity utilization show significant corrective measures only during booms while changes in inflation correct during both phases of the business cycle with the corrections being stronger during recessions. We also find that, in the short run, changes in the inflation rate do Granger cause capacity utilization while changes in capacity utilization do not Granger cause inflation. The Granger causality from inflation to capacity utilization can be interpreted as supporting recent calls made in the popular press by some economists that it may be desirable for the Federal Reserve Bank to try to induce some inflation in an effort to stimulate the economy. In the second essay, we examine the role of consumer confidence on economic activities like households' consumption in good and bad economic times. We consider the "news" versus "animal spirit" approach interpretation of consumer confidence. In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008-09, many have called for confidence-boosting policies to help speed up the recovery. A recent study has reinforced these policy calls by showing that the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index contains important information about "news" on future productivity that has long-lasting effects on economic activities like aggregate consumption. Using US data, we show this conclusion is more nuanced when considering an economy that has different potential states. We investigate regime-switching models which use the National Bureau of Economic Research US business cycle expansion and contraction data to create an indicator series that distinguishes bad and good economic times and use this series to investigate impulse responses and variance decompositions. We show the connection between consumer confidence to some types of consumer purchases is important during good economic times but is relatively unimportant during bad economic times. We also use this type of model to investigate the connection between news and consumer confidence and this connection is also shown to be state dependent. In the context of the animal spirits versus news debate, our findings show that during economic expansions, consumer confidence shocks likely reflect news, while during economic contractions, consumer confidence shocks are consistent with animal spirits. These findings also have important implications for recent policy debates which consider whether confidence boosting policies, like raising inflation expectations on big-ticket items such as automobiles or business equipment, would lead to a faster recovery. The third essay investigates expectation shocks and their effect on the economy. For instance, this essay investigates whether the economy responds to expectation shocks in an importantly asymmetric way. A growing literature shows that agents' expectation about the future can lead to boom-bust cycles. These studies so far ignore the transmission effects of expectations on current economic activities across the policy regimes. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Livingstone Survey data, this study empirically investigates the effects of expectation shocks on macroeconomic activities when policy regimes shift. Identifying a structural shock to expectations by using the timing of information in the forecast surveys and actual data releases, we show that the effects of agents' expectations about the future on current macroeconomic activities are asymmetric across the policy regimes. In particular, we find that a perception of good times ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity in a hawkish regime relative to a dovish regime. We also find that monetary policy's reactions to agents' expectations are asymmetric across the policy regimes. Our findings do not support the views of critics of the central banks, who argued that keeping monetary policy too easy for too long is responsible for fueling the booms. Instead, our findings support the traditional view that a positive (negative) expectation about the future coincides with an anticipatory tightening (easing) of monetary policy.

Download or read book The impact of inflation on the level of economic activity written by H. S. Odeh and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences written by Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia and published by Madrid : Banco de Espana. This book was released on 2001 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.