Download or read book Assumption Measurement Applications for the Individual Decision maker written by Jarrod W. Wilcox and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Method for Measuring Decision Assumptions written by Jarrod W. Wilcox and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1972 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research reported here deals with finding why people make some choices rather than others, why different people make different decisions in objectively similar situations. The book requires that its reader have some basic knowledge of statistical methods, and, since, it cuts across normally separate fields, it requires an adventuresome spirit. But, in return, the reader may expect to gain the use of a powerful tool that can be applied in his own practical projects and social science research.The message is on two levels. On one, the work is a practical handbook for application. On the other, it discusses some fundamental issues in the theory of decision-making and the social sciences.The book presents an application method for measuring assumptions realistic enough for use in management context. In a test-case study, the author uncovered startling diversity in the attributes investors use in picking stocks. More generally, such measures of assumptions are useful in managerial planning and control to aid in decision-making consistence, in learning to revise decision assumptions, and in designing information systems to support decision-making. They are also useful in improving joint decision-making and communication. Still other important applications are possible in consumer market research and in operations research modeling of decision processes. These applications are described with suggestive examples.To the management scientist the author seeks to show the benefits of extending explicitness beyond the traditional bounds of information systems into the realm of subjective decision assumptions. That is, subjective assumptions made explicit in a practical manner are employed as useful inputs to managerial information systems.Such measurement methods as reported here may also have widespread use in building social theory. Individual decision assumptions are key variables in microeconomics, in political science, in organization theory, and in the sociology of knowledge. Their measures play an analogous role in social science to that of thermometers in the development of thermodynamics.The material is developed as follows: First, the problem of discovering the assumptions which underlie decisions is sketched broadly. Alternative possible measurement approaches and theories are then described in logical order. An outline of the method for measuring assumptions is followed by the account of its use in a case study of stock market participants. It is this narrative that provides a practical handbook for the reader's use. A number of prototype applications are shown in some detail. The final chapters propose uses of the method for research in the social sciences and in accounting and the financial markets.

Download or read book Utility Theories Measurements and Applications written by Ward Edwards and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.

Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Download or read book Modeling Individual Differences in Perceptual Decision Making written by Joseph W. Houpt and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To deal with the abundant amount of information in the environment in order to achieve our goals, human beings adopt a strategy to accumulate some information and filter out other information to ultimately make decisions. Since the development of cognitive science in the 1960s, researchers have been interested in understanding how human beings process and accumulate information for decision-making. Researchers have conducted extensive behavioral studies and applied a wide range of modeling tools to study human behavior in simple-detection tasks and two-choice decision tasks (e.g., discrimination, classification). In general, researchers often assume that the manner in which information is processed for decision-making is invariant across individuals given a particular experimental context. Independent variables, including speed-accuracy instructions, stimulus properties (i.e., intensity), and characteristics of the participants (i.e., aging, cognitive ability) are assumed to affect the parameters in a model (i.e., speed of information accumulation, response bias) but not the way that participants process information (e.g., the order of information processing). Given these assumptions, much modeling has been accomplished based on the grouped data, rather than the individual data. However, a growing number of studies have demonstrated that there were individual differences in the perceptual decision process. In the same task context, different groups of the participants may process information in different manners. The capacity and architecture of the decision mechanism were found to vary across individuals, implying that humans’ decision strategies can vary depending on the context to maximize their performance. In this special issue, we focused on a particular subset of cognitive models, particularly accumulator models, multinomial processing trees and systems factorial technology (SFT) as applied to perceptual decision making. The motivation for the focus on perceptual decision-making is threefold. Empirical studies of perception have grown out of a history of making a large number of observations for each individual so as to achieve precise estimates of each individual’s performance. This type of data, rather than a small number of observations per individual, is most amenable to achieving precision in individual-level and group-level cognitive modeling. Second, the interaction between the acquisition of perceptual information and the decisions based on that information (to the extent that those processes are distinguishable) offers rich data for scientific exploration. Finally, there is an increasing interest in the practical application of individual variation in perceptual ability, whether to inform perceptual training and expertise, or to guide personnel decisions. Although these practical applications are beyond the scope of this issue, we hope that the research presented herein may serve as the foundation for future endeavors in that domain.

Download or read book Handbook of Transportation Science written by Randolph Hall and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past thirty-five years, a tremendous body of both theoretical and empirical research has been established on the `science of transportation'. The Handbook of Transportation Science has collected and synthesized this research into a systematic treatment of this field covering its fundamental concepts, methods, and principles. The purpose of this handbook is to define transportation as a scientific discipline that transcends transportation technology and methods. Whether by car, truck, airplane - or by a mode of transportation that has not yet been conceived - transportation obeys fundamental properties. The science of transportation defines these properties, and demonstrates how our knowledge of one mode of transportation can be used to explain the behavior of another. Transportation scientists are motivated by the desire to explain spatial interactions that result in movement of people or objects from place to place. Its methodologies draw from physics, operations research, probability and control theory. It is fundamentally a quantitative discipline, relying on mathematical models and optimization algorithms to explain the phenomena of transportation. The fourteen chapters in the handbook are written by the leading researchers in transportation science in an effort to define and categorize for the first time the scientific nature and state of the art of the field. As such, it is directed to the broader research community, transportation practitioners, and future transportation scientists.

Download or read book Theory and Methods of Economic Evaluation of Health Care written by Magnus Johannesson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most economic evaluations of health care programmes at the moment are cost effectiveness and cost-utility analyses. The problem with these methods is that their theoretical foundations are unclear. This has led to confusion about how to define the costs and health effects and how to interpret the results of these studies. In the environmental and traffic safety fields it is instead common to carry out traditional cost-bene:fit analyses of health improving programmes. This striking difference in how health programmes are assessed in different fields was the original motivation for writing this book. The aim of the book is to tty and provide a coherent framework within cost-bene:fit analysis and welfare economics for the different methods of economic evaluation in the health care field. The book is written in an easily accessible manner and several examples of applications of the different methods are provided. It is my hope that it will be useful both for teaching purposes and as a guide for practitioners in the field. Glenn C. Blomquist, John D. Graham, Rich O'Conor and four anonymous referees provided helpful comments on previous versions of the manuscript. I would also like to express my gratitude to the following persons for helping me to prepare the manuscript: Carl-Magnus Berglund, Carin Blanksvard, Ann Brown, and Ziad Obeid.

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making written by Michael W. Kattan and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2009-08-18 with total page 1281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making presents state-of-the-art research and ready-to-use facts sorting out findings on medical decision making and their applications.

Download or read book Fuzzy Measure Theory written by Zhenyuan Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, this groundbreaking work is solidly founded on a decade of concentrated research, some of which is published here for the first time, as well as practical, ''hands on'' classroom experience. The clarity of presentation and abundance of examples and exercises make it suitable as a graduate level text in mathematics, decision making, artificial intelligence, and engineering courses.

Download or read book Amartya Sen s Capability Approach written by Wiebke Kuklys and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-06-24 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kuklys examines how Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen’s approach to welfare measurement can be put in practice for poverty and inequality measurement in affluent societies such as the UK. Sen argues that an individual’s welfare should not be measured in terms of her income, but in terms what she can actually do or be, her capabilities. In Chapters 1 and 2, Kuklys describes the capability approach from a standard welfare economic point of view and provides a comprehensive literature review of the empirical applications in this area of research. In the remaining chapters, novel econometric techniques are employed to operationalise the concepts of functionings and capability to investigate inequality and poverty in terms of capability in the UK. Kuklys finds that capability measurement is always a useful complement to traditional monetary analysis, and particularly so in the case of capability-deprived disabled individuals.

Download or read book Stated Choice Methods written by Jordan J. Louviere and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-09-28 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A multidisciplinary graduate and practitioner guide, first published in 2000, which offers the theory and application of stated choice methods.

Download or read book Discrete Choice Analysis written by Moshe Ben-Akiva and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-04-20 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The methods of discrete choice analysis and their applications in the modelling of transportation systems constitute a comparatively new field that has largely evolved over the past 15 years. Since its inception, however, the field has developed rapidly, and this is the first text and reference work to cover the material systematically, bringing together the scattered and often inaccessible results for graduate students and professionals. Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The introductory chapter presents the background of discrete choice analysis and context of transportation demand forecasting. Subsequent chapters cover, among other topics, the theories of individual choice behavior, binary and multinomial choice models, aggregate forecasting techniques, estimation methods, tests used in the process of model development, sampling theory, the nested-logit model, and systems of models. Discrete Choice Analysis is ninth in the MIT Press Series in Transportation Studies, edited by Marvin Manheim.

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Download or read book Human Centric Decision Making Models for Social Sciences written by Peijun Guo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-making. The volume, self-contained in its nature, offers a systematic exposure to the concepts, design methodologies, and detailed algorithms. A prudent balance between the theoretical studies and applications makes the material suitable for researchers and graduate students in information, computer sciences, psychology, cognitive science, economics, system engineering, operation research and management science, risk management, public and social policy.

Download or read book The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence written by Utku Taşova and published by Entropol. This book was released on 2023-11-03 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unveiling the Future: Your Portal to Artificial Intelligence Proficiency In the epoch of digital metamorphosis, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as the vanguard of a new dawn, a nexus where human ingenuity intertwines with machine precision. As we delve deeper into this uncharted realm, the boundary between the conceivable and the fantastical continually blurs, heralding a new era of endless possibilities. The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence, embracing a compendium of 3,300 meticulously curated titles, endeavors to be the torchbearer in this journey of discovery, offering a wellspring of knowledge to both the uninitiated and the adept. Embarking on the pages of this dictionary is akin to embarking on a voyage through the vast and often turbulent seas of AI. Each entry serves as a beacon, illuminating complex terminologies, core principles, and the avant-garde advancements that characterize this dynamic domain. The dictionary is more than a mere compilation of terms; it's a labyrinth of understanding waiting to be traversed. The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence is an endeavor to demystify the arcane, to foster a shared lexicon that enhances collaboration, innovation, and comprehension across the AI community. It's a mission to bridge the chasm between ignorance and insight, to unravel the intricacies of AI that often seem enigmatic to the outsiders. This profound reference material transcends being a passive repository of terms; it’s an engagement with the multifaceted domain of artificial intelligence. Each title encapsulated within these pages is a testament to the audacity of human curiosity and the unyielding quest for advancement that propels the AI domain forward. The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence is an invitation to delve deeper, to grapple with the lexicon of a field that stands at the cusp of redefining the very fabric of society. It's a conduit through which the curious become enlightened, the proficient become masters, and the innovators find inspiration. As you traverse through the entries of The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence, you are embarking on a journey of discovery. A journey that not only augments your understanding but also ignites the spark of curiosity and the drive for innovation that are quintessential in navigating the realms of AI. We beckon you to commence this educational expedition, to explore the breadth and depth of AI lexicon, and to emerge with a boundless understanding and an unyielding resolve to contribute to the ever-evolving narrative of artificial intelligence. Through The Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence, may your quest for knowledge be as boundless and exhilarating as the domain it explores.

Download or read book Theoretical Research Programs written by Joseph Berger and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzing the structure and growth of major theoretical research programs in the sociological study of group processes, this book considers such topics as exchange processes and network structures, bargaining and conflict, status characteristics and status organizing processes, social interaction, and legitimation processes.

Download or read book Risk Assessment in Setting National Priorities written by James J. Bonin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growing perception of the public and politicians that life is extremely risky has led to a dramatic and increasing interest in risk analysis. The risks may be very diverse as demonstrated by the range of subjects covered at the annual meetings of the Society for Risk Analysis. There is a need to pause and see how well the present approaches are serving the nation. The theme, "Setting National Priorities," which was chosen for the 1987 SRA Annual Meeting, reflects the concern that in dealing with individual kinds of risks, society may be more concerned with the trees than the forest. It is surprising how little attention is being given to the holistic aspects of risk. Who, for instance, is responsible for a national strategy to manage the reduction of health or other risks? Individual agencies have the responsibility for specific patterns of exposure, but these are not integrated and balanced to determine how the nation as a whole can obtain the greatest benefit for the very large investment which is made in risk-related research and analysis.