Download or read book Asset Pricing and Portfolio Optimization Under Regime Switching Models written by Yang Shen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Regime-switching models are very useful to describe structural changes in macro-economic conditions, periodical fluctuations in business cycles and sudden transitions in market modes. In this these, a continuous-time, finite-state, observable Markov chain is adopted to model the regime switches. The first part of the thesis is devoted to asset pricing problems under regime-switching models. In the second part stochastic optimal control theory is applied to explore portfolio optimization problems under regime-switching models.

Download or read book Asset Pricing Hedging and Portfolio Optimization written by JUN. FU and published by . This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Asset Pricing, Hedging and Portfolio Optimization" by Jun, Fu, 付君, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Starting from the most famous Black-Scholes model for the underlying asset price, there has been a large variety of extensions made in recent decades. One main strand is about the models which allow a jump component in the asset price. The first topic of this thesis is about the study of jump risk premium by an equilibrium approach. Different from others, this work provides a more general result by modeling the underlying asset price as the ordinary exponential of a L'vy process. For any given asset price process, the equity premium, pricing kernel and an equilibrium option pricing formula can be derived. Moreover, some empirical evidence such as the negative variance risk premium, implied volatility smirk, and negative skewness risk premium can be well explained by using the relation between the physical and risk-neutral distributions for the jump component. Another strand of the extensions of the Black-Scholes model is about the models which can incorporate stochastic volatility in the asset price. The second topic of this thesis is about the replication of exponential variance, where the key risks are the ones induced by the stochastic volatility and moreover it can be correlated with the returns of the asset, referred to as leverage effect. A time-changed L'vy process is used to incorporate jumps, stochastic volatility and leverage effect all together. The exponential variance can be robustly replicated by European portfolios, without any specification of a model for the stochastic volatility. Beyond the above asset pricing and hedging, portfolio optimization is also discussed. Based on the Merton (1969, 1971)'s reduced portfolio optimization and the delta hedging problem, a portfolio of an option, the underlying stock and a risk-free bond can be optimized in discrete time and its optimal solution can be shown to be a mixture of the Merton's result and the delta hedging strategy. The main approach is the elasticity approach, which has initially been proposed in continuous time. In addition to the above optimization problem in discrete time, the same topic but in a continuous-time regime-switching market is also presented. The use of regime-switching makes our market incomplete, and makes it difficult to use some approaches which are applicable in complete market. To overcome this challenge, two methods are provided. The first method is that we simply do not price the regime-switching risk when obtaining the risk-neutral probability. Then by the idea of elasticity, the utility maximization problem can be formulated as a stochastic control problem with only a single control variable, and explicit solutions can be obtained. The second method is to introduce a functional operator to general value functions of stochastic control problem in such a way that the optimal value function in our setting can be given by the limit of a sequence of value functions defined by iterating the operator. Hence the original problem can be deduced to an auxiliary optimization problem, which can be solved as if we were in a single-regime market, which is complete. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4819934 Subjects: Capital assets pricing model He

Download or read book A DYNAMIC SELECT SECTOR SPDRS ETFS PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL WITH REGIME SWITCHING ECONOMIC INDICATORS written by Jingzhi Chang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Stochastic Control Optimization and Applications written by George Yin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 599 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects papers, based on invited talks given at the IMA workshop in Modeling, Stochastic Control, Optimization, and Related Applications, held at the Institute for Mathematics and Its Applications, University of Minnesota, during May and June, 2018. There were four week-long workshops during the conference. They are (1) stochastic control, computation methods, and applications, (2) queueing theory and networked systems, (3) ecological and biological applications, and (4) finance and economics applications. For broader impacts, researchers from different fields covering both theoretically oriented and application intensive areas were invited to participate in the conference. It brought together researchers from multi-disciplinary communities in applied mathematics, applied probability, engineering, biology, ecology, and networked science, to review, and substantially update most recent progress. As an archive, this volume presents some of the highlights of the workshops, and collect papers covering a broad range of topics.

Download or read book Stochastic Processes Optimization and Control Theory Applications in Financial Engineering Queueing Networks and Manufacturing Systems written by Houmin Yan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-10 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume contains 16 research articles. It presents recent and pressing issues in stochastic processes, control theory, differential games, optimization, and their applications in finance, manufacturing, queueing networks, and climate control. One of the salient features is that the book is highly multi-disciplinary. The book is dedicated to Professor Suresh Sethi on the occasion of his 60th birthday, in view of his distinguished career.

Download or read book Multi Period Trading Via Convex Optimization written by Stephen Boyd and published by . This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph collects in one place the basic definitions, a careful description of the model, and discussion of how convex optimization can be used in multi-period trading, all in a common notation and framework.

Download or read book A Regime Switching Factor Model for Mean Variance Optimization written by Giorgio Costa and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We formulate a novel Markov regime-switching factor model to describe the cyclical nature of asset returns in modern financial markets. Maintaining a factor model structure allows us to easily derive the asset expected returns and their corresponding covariance matrix. By design, these two parameters are calibrated to better describe the properties of the different market regimes. In turn, these regime-dependent parameters serve as the inputs during mean-variance optimization, thereby constructing portfolios adapted to the current market environment. Through this formulation, the proposed model allows for the construction of large, realistic portfolios at no additional computational cost during optimization. Moreover, the viability of this model can be significantly improved by periodically re-balancing the portfolio, ensuring proper alignment between the estimated parameters and the transient market regimes. An out-of-sample computational experiment over a long investment horizon shows that the proposed regime-dependent portfolios are better aligned with the market environment, yielding a higher ex post rate of return and lower volatility than competing portfolios.

Download or read book Asset Allocation Using Regime Switching Methods written by Sarthak Garg and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this thesis is to develop a Markov Regime Switching framework that can be used in asset allocation in conjunction with Modern Portfolio Theory. Modern Portfolio Theory has long been a popular tool among big financial institutions. However, one of its major limitations is assumption of stationary market volatility. In this paper, we develop a single period Mean Variance Optimization model that minimizes the variance of a portfolio subject to a specified expected return by combining Modern Portfolio Theory with a Markov Regime Switching framework. Then, we extend the above developed framework to be used in conjunction with a robust optimization framework as proposed by Goldfarb Iyengar in which regards we were partially successful. The portfolios constructed by the Markov Regime-Switching framework were tested out of sample to outperform those suggested by a Simple MVO One Factor model and the Robust MVO One Factor Model.

Download or read book Portfolio Optimization a Combined Regime switching and Black Litterman Model written by Edwin O. Fischer and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Regime Switching Models in Asset Pricing written by Evert Wipplinger and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Multi period Portfolio Optimization with Investor Views Under Regime Switching written by Razvan Gabriel Oprisor and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a novel multi-period trading model that allows portfolio managers to perform optimal portfolio allocation while incorporating their interpretable investment views. This model's significant advantage is its incorporation of the latest asset return regimes to quantitatively solve managers' question: how certain should one be that a given investment view is occurring? First, we describe a framework for multi-period portfolio allocation formulated as a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk and transaction costs. Second, we use the Black-Litterman model to combine investment views specified in a simple linear combination based format with the market portfolio. A data-driven method to adjust the confidence in the manager's views by comparing them to dynamically updated regime-switching forecasts is proposed. Our contribution is to incorporate both multi-period trading and interpretable investment views into one efficient framework and offer a novel method of using regime-switching to determine each view's confidence.

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models in Finance written by Rogemar S. Mamon and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-26 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance offers the first systematic application of these methods to specialized financial problems: option pricing, credit risk modeling, volatility estimation and more. The book provides tools for sorting through turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events – the random "noise" of financial markets – to analyze core components.

Download or read book Stochastic Programming written by Horand Gassmann and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows the breadth and depth of stochastic programming applications. All the papers presented here involve optimization over the scenarios that represent possible future outcomes of the uncertainty problems. The applications, which were presented at the 12th International Conference on Stochastic Programming held in Halifax, Nova Scotia in August 2010, span the rich field of uses of these models. The finance papers discuss such diverse problems as longevity risk management of individual investors, personal financial planning, intertemporal surplus management, asset management with benchmarks, dynamic portfolio management, fixed income immunization and racetrack betting. The production and logistics papers discuss natural gas infrastructure design, farming Atlantic salmon, prevention of nuclear smuggling and sawmill planning. The energy papers involve electricity production planning, hydroelectric reservoir operations and power generation planning for liquid natural gas plants. Finally, two telecommunication papers discuss mobile network design and frequency assignment problems.

Download or read book Is Regime Switching in Stock Returns Important in Portfolio Decisions written by Jun Tu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year, and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, and hence should be employed instead in portfolio decisions irrespective of concerns about model or parameter uncertainty.

Download or read book Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Regime Switching Model written by Xudong Zeng and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Regime Switching Multifactor Model for the Stock and Bond Returns written by Shuichang Xie and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: In contrast to the studies of constant or time-varying correlations between stock and bond returns, in this thesis, I explore the regime-dependent correlations between stock and bond returns. Specifically, I start with a comprehensive asset pricing model, i.e., a regime-switching multifactor model, and then investigate the regime-dependent correlations between stock and bond returns. Based on the BIC, the number of regimes in the regime-switching model is optimally determined to be two. For the two regimes, the directions of the regime-dependent correlations appear to be significantly different. Also, the magnitudes of the regime-dependent correlations are substantially larger in these two regimes than the correlation in the single regime. With my findings in the regime-dependent correlations, I then examine the performance of portfolio strategies. Throughout the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, I find that the two portfolio strategies, regime inferred portfolio and probability implied portfolio, can outperform the benchmark, S&P 500.

Download or read book Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-05 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.