Download or read book Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed Competative Traders written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the time series properties of the price of a risky asset implied by a model in which competitive traders are heterogeneously informed about the underlying sources of uncertainty in the economy.Traders do not observe the shocks in the period they occur. However, traders are imperfectly and heterogeneously informed about these shocks for three reasons:(1) the shocks are serially correlated arid hence partially forecast able from their past history, (2) each trader receives private signals about the current values of a subset of the shocks, and (3) the equilibrium price conveys information about the private signals and beliefs of other traders. Since prices convey information in this economy, traders will face an infinite regress problem in expectations associated with their desire to forecast the beliefs of others, the beliefs of others about average beliefs, etc.The equilibrium time series representation for the price of the risky security is deduced in various imperfect information environments. Then the volatility and autocorrelations of prices in this model are compared to the corresponding statistics for a model in which agents are homogeneously informed.
Download or read book Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Perpetually Disparately Informed Competitive Traders written by Kenneth Kasa and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia's (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee noninvertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents' information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents must 'forecast the forecasts of others'. The paper provides an explicit analytical characterization of the resulting higher-order belief dynamics. These additional dynamics can explain apparent violations of variance bounds and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.
Download or read book Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed Competitive Traders written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparatily Informed Competitive Traders written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed Competitive Traders written by Todd B. Walker and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accommodating asymmetric information in a dynamic asset pricing model is technically challenging due to the problems associated with higher-order expectations. That is, rational investors are forced into a situation where they must forecast the forecasts of other agents (i.e., form higher-order expectations). In a dynamic setting, this problem telescopes into the infinite future and the dimension of the relevant state space approaches infinity. By employing the frequency domain approach of Whiteman (1983) and Kasa (2000), this paper demonstrates how information structures previously believed to lead to disparate expectations in equilibrium (e.g., Singleton (1987)) converge to a symmetric equilibrium. The quot;revealingquot; aspect of the price process lies in the invertibility of the observed state space, which makes it possible for agents to inferthe economically fundamental shocks, thus eliminating the need to forecast the forecasts of others.
Download or read book Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information written by Markus K. Brunnermeier and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2001-01-25 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asset prices are driven by public news and information that is often dispersed among many market participants. These agents try to infer each other's information by analyzing price processes. In the past two decades, theoretical research in financial economics has significantly advanced our understanding of the informational aspects of price processes. This book provides a detailed and up-to-date survey of this important body of literature. The book begins by demonstrating how to model asymmetric information and higher-order knowledge. It then contrasts competitive and strategic equilibrium concepts under asymmetric information. It also illustrates the dependence of information efficiency and allocative efficiency on the security structure and the linkage between both efficiency concepts. No-Trade theorems and market breakdowns due to asymmetric information are then explained, and the existence of bubbles under symmetric and asymmetric information is investigated. The remainder of the survey is devoted to contrasting different market microstructure models that demonstrate how asymmetric information affects asset prices and traders' information , which provide a theoretical explanation for technical analysis and illustrate why some investors "chase the trend." The reader is then introduced to herding models and informational cascades, which can arise in a setting where agents' decision-making is sequential. The insights derived from herding models are used to provide rational explanations for stock market crashes. Models in which all traders are induced to search for the same piece of information are then presented to provide a deeper insight into Keynes' comparison of the stock market with a beauty contest. The book concludes with a brief summary of bank runs and their connection to financial crises.
Download or read book Advances in Econometrics Volume 2 written by Christopher A. Sims and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-03-07 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 1994 two-volume set of articles reflects the state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development and labour economics.
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-12 with total page 2744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics Volumes 2A and 2B surveys major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues, including fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies to deal with crises, unemployment, and economic growth. As this volume shows, macroeconomics has undergone a profound change since the publication of the last volume, due in no small part to the questions thrust into the spotlight by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008. With contributions from the world’s leading macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and assessment of its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade Builds upon Volume 1 by using its section headings to illustrate just how far macroeconomic thought has evolved
Download or read book Information and Learning in Markets written by Xavier Vives and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-25 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This graduate-level textbook analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of specific market arrangements--or microstructure--on the aggregation process and overall performance of financial markets. Xavier Vives bridges the gap between the two primary views of markets--informational efficiency and herding--and uses a coherent game-theoretic framework to bring together the latest results from the rational expectations and herding literatures. Vives emphasizes the consequences of market interaction and social learning for informational and economic efficiency. He looks closely at information aggregation mechanisms, progressing from simple to complex environments: from static to dynamic models; from competitive to strategic agents; and from simple market strategies such as noncontingent orders or quantities to complex ones like price contingent orders or demand schedules. Vives finds that contending theories like informational efficiency and herding build on the same principles of Bayesian decision making and that "irrational" agents are not needed to explain herding behavior, booms, and crashes. As this book shows, the microstructure of a market is the crucial factor in the informational efficiency of prices. Provides the most complete analysis of the ways markets aggregate information Bridges the gap between the rational expectations and herding literatures Includes exercises with solutions Serves both as a graduate textbook and a resource for researchers, including financial analysts
Download or read book Asset Prices and Informed Traders Abilities written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reports the results of fifteen experimental asset markets designed to investigate the effects of forecasts on market prices, traders' abilities to assess asset value, and the link between the two. Across the fifteen markets, the authors investigate alternative forecast-generating processes. In some markets the process produces an unbiased estimate of asset value and in others a biased estimate. The processes generating the biased forecasts, though, are less variable than the process generating the unbiased forecast. The authors find that, in general, period-end asset price reflects private forecasts, regardless of the forecast-generating process. Subsequently, they investigate whether traders' abilities to use forecasts differ across the forecast-generating processes. The authors find that most are able to properly use unbiased forecasts. They refer to them as smart traders. By comparison, a significant proportion is unable to properly use biased forecasts (typically traders' adjustments for bias are insufficient). Linking market outcomes and traders' abilities, the authors find that asset price appears to properly reflect unbiased forecasts as long as the market includes at least two smart informed traders who have sufficient ability to influence market outcomes. To obtain a comparable result in markets with the biased forecast, at least three smart informed traders with sufficient ability to influence market outcomes are necessary.
Download or read book Modeling Asset Prices written by James E. Gentle and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As an asset is traded, its varying prices trace out an interesting time series. The price, at least in a general way, reflects some underlying value of the asset. For most basic assets, realistic models of value must involve many variables relating not only to the individual asset, but also to the asset class, the industrial sector(s) of the asset, and both the local economy and the general global economic conditions. Rather than attempting to model the value, we will confine our interest to modeling the price. The underlying assumption is that the price at which an asset trades is a "fair market price" that reflects the actual value of the asset. Our initial interest is in models of the price of a basic asset, that is, not the price of a derivative asset. Usually instead of the price itself, we consider the relative change in price, that is, the rate of return, over some interval of time. The purpose of asset pricing models is not for prediction of future prices; rather the purpose is to provide a description of the stochastic behavior of prices. Models of price changes have a number of uses, including, for investors, optimal construction of portfolios of assets and, for market regulators, maintaining a fair and orderly market. A major motivation for developing models of price changes of given assets is to use those models to develop models of fair value of derivative assets that depend on the given assets. -- Discrete time series models ; continuous time diffusion models ; models with jumps ; stochastic volatility ; GARCH
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Time Series of the Cross Section of Asset Prices written by Lior Menzly and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we propose a general equilibrium model that successfully reproduces the historical experience of the cross section of US stock prices as well as the realized history of the market portfolio. The model achieves this while addressing traditional concerns in the asset pricing literature: A high equity premium and volatility of returns, the long horizon predictability, and a low volatility of the risk free rate. The model combines a rich payoff structure with a habit persistence discount factor, which allows us to identify the effect on prices of idiosyncratic cash flow shocks versus business cycle components
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Political Economy of Food and Finance written by Ted P. Schmidt and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-12-14 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financialization, globalization and industrialization of our food systems make it increasingly difficult to access quality fresh food. In fact, the industrialized global food system is creating products that are less food-like, engendering growing questions about the health and safety of our food supply. In addition, the bio-engineering of food commodities is another factor influencing the growth of industrial farming for an increasingly homogenized, globalized market. This book describes the financialization process in commodity futures markets which transformed commodities into an asset class. Incorporated into the portfolio decisions of investors, commodity prices now behave like all asset prices, becoming more volatile and subject to periodic bubbles. As commodity prices were driven higher in the 2000s, farmland became more valuable, setting off a global land grab by investors, nations, and corporations. More recently, under the financialization food regime, slow growth and low returns encouraged merger activity driven by private equity firms, with food industry corporations as prime targets, leading to increased industry concentration. With government policy focused on supporting corporate interests, there has been a global reaction to the current food system. The food sovereignty movement is taking on the interests behind the global land grab, and the regional food movement in cities across the U.S. is hitting corporations at the bottom line. Food corporations are listening. Is the food movement winning? This book is of interest to those who study political economy, financialization and agriculture and related studies, as well as food systems and commodity future markets.
Download or read book Agricultural Supply Chain Management Research written by Onur Boyabatlı and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-09 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on three essential elements of agricultural supply chains: Planting and Growing, Processing and Selling, and Government Interventions. For decades, most agricultural economists applied macro-economic theory in decisions pertaining to the optimization of food production and distribution. However, few researchers used micro-economic theory to examine how individual farmers respond to market information, incentive pricing mechanisms and different market structures in the trade of agricultural goods. Examining challenges in agricultural supply chain operations through the lens of micro-economic theory is imperative because it can enable policymakers and social enterprises to develop and design market information provision policy, incentive contracts and market structures for improving farmer and consumer welfare. In each chapter, contributing authors motivate their research questions by providing the context and articulating the importance of their questions. They present their analysis to examine the respective research questions and explain their results. At the end of each chapter, they provide a short list of future research questions.
