Download or read book Assessing Financial Contagion in the Interbank Market written by Paolo Emilio Mistrulli and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using Counterfactual Simulations to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets written by Christian Upper and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers at central banks increasingly turn to counterfactual simulations to estimate the danger of contagion owing to exposures in the interbank loan market. The present paper summarises the findings of such simulations, provides a critical assessment of the modelling assumptions on which they are based, and discusses their use in financial stability analysis. On the whole, such simulations suggest that contagious defaults are unlikely, but cannot be fully ruled out, at least in some countries. If contagion does take place, then it could lead to the breakdown of a substantial fraction of the banking system, thus imposing high costs to society. However, when interpreting these results, one has to bear in mind the potential bias caused by the very strong assumptions underlying the simulations. While robustness tests indicate that the models might be able to correctly predict whether or not contagion could be an issue and, possibly, also identify critical institutions, they are less suited for stress testing or for the analysis of policy options in crises, primarily due to their lack of behavioural foundations. Going forward, more work is needed on how to attach probabilities to the individual scenarios and on the microfoundations of the models.
Download or read book Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market written by Christian Upper and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects, where the failureKreditrisiken aus Interbankbeziehungen können zu Dominoeffekten führen indem der.
Download or read book CoMap Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector written by Mehmet Ziya Gorpe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-10 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.
Download or read book Assessing Systemic Risk Using Interbank Exposures in the Global Banking System written by Masayasu Kanno and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper contributes to the literature on systemic risk by examining the network structure of bilateral exposures in the global banking system. The global interbank market constitutes a major part of the global banking system. The market has a hierarchical network structure, composed of the national or jurisdictional area's local markets and the cross-border interbank market. First, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from Bankscope and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Subsequently, for the model analysis, we apply the Eisenberg-Noe framework to a multi-period setting. In this framework, bank defaults are classified into stand-alone defaults and contagious defaults. The banks in our sample (i.e., the top 202 banks with more than $50 billion in total assets) comprise a major part of this global banking system. The main findings are as follows: The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed that most of the banks designated as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) play a central role in the global interbank market. The theoretical default analysis showed a few contagious defaults triggered by the basic defaults during and after the global financial crisis. Our stress test proved that many G-SIBs theoretically caused 1-6 contagious defaults. Our methodology would assist in the development of a monitoring system by the respective supervisory authorities as well as in the implementation of bank-internal stress tests of default contagion.
Download or read book Switzerland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Note on Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis on Switzerland summarizes the systemic risk and contagion analysis undertaken for the Swiss financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update. Contagion risks arising from interbank exposures in Switzerland appear to be contained. This analysis shows only moderate effects, consistent with restrictions imposed by the Swiss ‘large exposure rules’ currently in place, and no material second round effects will materialize within the domestic interbank market. In terms of bank groups, domestic interbank exposure risks appear to be moderate for most banks, but a few small private banks and banks specialized in asset management appear to be somewhat vulnerable. The international contagion analysis suggests that global contagion risks among Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions and the large Swiss financial institutions appear to be currently contained. The systematic risk analysis shows that the relative contribution of domestically oriented banks to systemic risk is increasing. The bank-sovereign contagion analysis suggests that increases in banks capital buffers have contributed positively to limit contagion risks.
Download or read book Computational Science ICCS 2004 written by Marian Bubak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-05-26 with total page 1376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2004) held in Krak ́ ow, Poland, June 6–9, 2004, was a follow-up to the highly successful ICCS 2003 held at two locations, in Melbourne, Australia and St. Petersburg, Russia; ICCS 2002 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and ICCS 2001 in San Francisco, USA. As computational science is still evolving in its quest for subjects of inves- gation and e?cient methods, ICCS 2004 was devised as a forum for scientists from mathematics and computer science, as the basic computing disciplines and application areas, interested in advanced computational methods for physics, chemistry, life sciences, engineering, arts and humanities, as well as computer system vendors and software developers. The main objective of this conference was to discuss problems and solutions in all areas, to identify new issues, to shape future directions of research, and to help users apply various advanced computational techniques. The event harvested recent developments in com- tationalgridsandnextgenerationcomputingsystems,tools,advancednumerical methods, data-driven systems, and novel application ?elds, such as complex - stems, ?nance, econo-physics and population evolution.
Download or read book Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis A Practical Framework written by Mrs.Jana Bricco and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
Download or read book Financial Stability of the Banking Sector Interbank Contagion Market Discipline and Macroeconomic Roots of Crises written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis conducts three different empirical studies and finds that some of the pre-2007 risk assessment model could underestimate the systemic risk of the banking sector and justifies an overhaul. First, it simulates the contagion impact of the UK interbank market. Subject to a number of assumptions (netting agreement, seniority, etc), it finds that the contagion is much severer if the simulation uses consolidated data than using unconsolidated data. Second, the thesis tests whether the riskiness of banks can be mitigated by peer interbank monitoring. Applying to UK market, the thesis finds little evidence of market discipline. The results are attributed to the lenders' assumption of "too-big-to-fail" and the shortness of loan maturity. Last, the thesis investigates whether banking sector difficulties are preceded by macroeconomic distress. In contrast to most existing studies, the thesis finds that economy still thrives in the "pre-crisis" in terms of increasing GDP growth and the recession is generally associated with the "post-crisis" period. The inconsistency of results is very likely due to imprecise crisis identification of earlier studies which identify crises too late on the basis of "event studies."
Download or read book Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity written by Falk Bräuning and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Liquidity Risk Contagion in the Interbank Market written by Andrea Eross and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies liquidity risk contagion within the interbank market by assessing the long-run relationship of short-term interest rate spreads from January 2002 to December 2015. In particular, we model the interaction between the LIBOR-OIS spread, euro fixed-float OIS swap rate and the three-month US-German bond spread and discover strong evidence of structural innovations affecting the interbank market. We find that when the short-term interbank market is affected by a liquidity shock, the LIBOR-OIS spread is a leader in moving back to equilibrium, while the euro fixed-float OIS swap rate and the US-German bond spreads are followers. Moreover, we find long-run cointegrating relationships and bi-directional causality between the spreads. However, structural breaks identified as prospective financial crises affect the long-run relationships and liquidity shocks drive interbank rates and spread fluctuations. Therefore, liquidity shocks propagating within the interbank market can forecast benchmark interest movements and ultimately this has significant implications for policymakers and market players alike.
Download or read book Handbook on Systemic Risk written by Jean-Pierre Fouque and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-23 with total page 993 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook on Systemic Risk, written by experts in the field, provides researchers with an introduction to the multifaceted aspects of systemic risks facing the global financial markets. The Handbook explores the multidisciplinary approaches to analyzing this risk, the data requirements for further research, and the recommendations being made to avert financial crisis. The Handbook is designed to encourage new researchers to investigate a topic with immense societal implications as well as to provide, for those already actively involved within their own academic discipline, an introduction to the research being undertaken in other disciplines. Each chapter in the Handbook will provide researchers with a superior introduction to the field and with references to more advanced research articles. It is the hope of the editors that this Handbook will stimulate greater interdisciplinary academic research on the critically important topic of systemic risk in the global financial markets.
Download or read book Filling in the Blanks written by Kartik Anand and published by . This book was released on with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines information-theoretic arguments with economic incentives to produce more realistic interbank networks that preserve important characteristics of the original interbank market. The method loads the most probable links with the largest exposures consistent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank, yielding networks with minimum density. When used in a stress-testing context, the minimum density solution overestimates contagion, whereas maximum entropy underestimates it. Using the two benchmarks side by side defines a useful range that bounds the cost of systemic stress present in the true interbank network when counterparty exposures are unknown.
Download or read book Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too Connected to Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual banks in Chile, an advanced emerging market economy.
Download or read book Cross Border Financial Surveillance written by Marco A Espinosa-Vega and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, we show that the inclusion of risk transfers could modify the risk profile of entire financial systems, and thus an enriched simulation algorithm able to account for risk transfers is proposed. Finally, we discuss how some of the limitations of our simulations are a reflection of existing information and data gaps, and thus view these shortcomings as a call to improve the collection and analysis of data on cross-border financial exposures.
Download or read book Contagion in the Interbank Market and Its Determinants written by Christoph Memmel and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carrying out interbank contagion simulations for the German banking sector for the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2011, we obtain the following results: (i) The system becomes less vulnerable to direct interbank contagion over time. (ii) The loss distribution for each point in time can be condensed into one indicator, the expected number of failures, without much loss of information. (iii) Important determinants of this indicator are the banks' capital, their interbank lending in the system, the loss given default and how equal banks spread their claims among other banks.
Download or read book Interbank Tiering and Money Center Banks written by Ben Craig and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
