Download or read book Are Commodity Prices More Volatile Now A Long Run Perspective written by Oscar Calvo-González and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have implications for welfare and therefore for the design of public policy interventions. The literature focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from the end of the 18th century until today. The main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities, cautioning against generalizations based on the use of commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks common to most commodities are the two world wars and the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or downward trend in volatility over time.

Download or read book Are Commodity Prices More Volatile Now A Long Run Perspective written by Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have implications for welfare and therefore for the design of public policy interventions. The literature focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from the end of the 18th century until today. The main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities, cautioning against generalizations based on the use of commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks common to most commodities are the two world wars and the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or downward trend in volatility over time.

Download or read book Are commodity prices more volatile now a long run perspective written by Shankar and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Download or read book The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, even though most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities may be less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods.

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Download or read book The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.

Download or read book Crude Volatility written by Robert McNally and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

Download or read book Global Uncertainity and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by Bertrand Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization's oversimplified faith in free markets. The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds - professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations - the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide."--Publisher's website.

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Download or read book Volatility and Commodity Price Dynamics written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of productions: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of volatility in short-run commodity market dynamics, as well as the determinants of volatility itself. Specifically, I develop a model describing the joint dynamics of inventories, spot and futures prices, and volatility, and estimate it using daily and weekly data for the petroleum complex: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline.

Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Download or read book The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain.

Download or read book The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices written by Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Options written by Carley Garner and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2009-01-23 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Don’t Miss out on Today’s Hottest Trading Arena: Commodity Options! “The authors have written the definitive work on trading commodity options. Their in-depth knowledge of this subject is legendary among industry professionals and expert traders alike, and their ability to relay their knowledge through text, pictures, and the spoken word is unparalleled in our industry.” –Lan Turner, CEO, Gecko Software, Inc. “This book captures the realities of commodity option trading in a simple and easy- to-read presentation that will be beneficial for traders of all sizes and skill levels.” –Chris Jarvis, CFA, CMT, Caprock Risk Management, LLC “Even the most experienced investors often overlook the fact that options on futures are fundamentally different from options on stocks. This book fills that gap and sets the record straight with clear and concise descriptions that are easy to understand. Guaranteed to become a true source of value creation for anyone interested in trading commodity options.” –Jeff Augen, author, The Volatility Edge in Options Trading “Commodity Options arms readers with the strategies and tactics needed to take a more active approach to managing risk in today’s turbulent markets. The authors exhaustively break down every component of a commodity option to its lowest common denominator, making this book an essential piece of information for those looking to expand their trading tool box or further build on existing option strategies.” –John Netto, Chief Investment Strategist, NetBlack Capital and author, One Shot–One Kill Trading Investors worldwide are discovering the enormous opportunities available through commodity options trading. However, because commodities have differing underlying characteristics from equities, commodity ­options behave differently as well. In this book, two of the field’s most respected analysts present strategies built from the ground up for commodity options. Carley Garner and Paul Brittain begin with a quick primer on how commodity options work, how they evolved, and why conventional options strategies often fail in the commodity options markets. Next, using detailed examples based on their own extensive research, they show how to leverage the unique characteristics of commodity options in your own trades. You’ll walk through trades from “top to bottom,” master both long- and short-option approaches, and learn powerful strategies usually ignored in options books. For example, the authors introduce synthetic swing trading strategies that systematically reduce volatility from the market. This book’s easy-to-use trading strategies are strategically employed by the author’s clients every day: With Commodity Options, you can work to put the odds in your favor, too! • Why commodity options are different—and what it means to you Understand key differences in the underlying assets and the logistics of market execution • Systematically rewrite the odds in your favor Four ways to make winning trades more likely—and losing trades less common • When to trade short options—and how to manage the risk Why careful option selling may improve your odds of success • Master strategies designed for diverse market conditions Combine long and short options to create the right strategy for any market opportunity • Exploit short-lived trends through “synthetic” swing trading Get the advantages of futures contracts without the volatility