Download or read book Applications of Computer Aided Time Series Modeling written by Masanao Aoki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book consists of three parts: Part One is composed of two introductory chapters. The first chapter provides an instrumental varible interpretation of the state space time series algorithm originally proposed by Aoki (1983), and gives an introductory account for incorporating exogenous signals in state space models. The second chapter, by Havenner, gives practical guidance in apply ing this algorithm by one of the most experienced practitioners of the method. Havenner begins by summarizing six reasons state space methods are advanta geous, and then walks the reader through construction and evaluation of a state space model for four monthly macroeconomic series: industrial production in dex, consumer price index, six month commercial paper rate, and money stock (Ml). To single out one of the several important insights in modeling that he shares with the reader, he discusses in Section 2ii the effects of sampling er rors and model misspecification on successful modeling efforts. He argues that model misspecification is an important amplifier of the effects of sampling error that may cause symplectic matrices to have complex unit roots, a theoretical impossibility. Correct model specifications increase efficiency of estimators and often eliminate this finite sample problem. This is an important insight into the positive realness of covariance matrices; positivity has been emphasized by system engineers to the exclusion of other methods of reducing sampling error and alleviating what is simply a finite sample problem. The second and third parts collect papers that describe specific applications.

Download or read book Bilinear Stochastic Models and Related Problems of Nonlinear Time Series Analysis written by György Terdik and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-07-30 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The object of the present work is a systematic statistical analysis of bilinear processes in the frequency domain. The first two chapters are devoted to the basic theory of nonlinear functions of stationary Gaussian processes, Hermite polynomials, cumulants and higher order spectra, multiple Wiener-Itô integrals and finally chaotic Wiener-Itô spectral representation of subordinated processes. There are two chapters for general nonlinear time series problems.

Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series written by Regina Kaiser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book outlines and demonstrates problems with the use of the HP filter, and proposes an alternative strategy for inferring cyclical behavior from a time series featuring seasonal, trend, cyclical and noise components. The main innovation of the alternative strategy involves augmenting the series forecasts and back-casts obtained from an ARIMA model, and then applying the HP filter to the augmented series. Comparisons presented using artificial and actual data demonstrate the superiority of the alternative strategy.

Download or read book Stochastic Population Models written by James H. Matis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on stochastic modeling of population processes. The book presents new symbolic mathematical software to develop practical methodological tools for stochastic population modeling. The book assumes calculus and some knowledge of mathematical modeling, including the use of differential equations and matrix algebra.

Download or read book Graphical Methods for the Design of Experiments written by Russell R. Barton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most texts on the design of experiments focus on the analysis of experimental data, not on the creation of the design. Graphical Methods for Experimental Design presents a strategic view of the planning of experiments, and provides a number of graphical tools that are useful for justifying the effort required for experimentation, identifying variables and candidate statistical models, selecting the set of run conditions and for assessing the quality of the design. In addition, the graphical framework for creating fractional factorial designs is used to present experimental results in a way that is easier to understand than a set of model coefficients. The text merely assumes a basic knowledge of statistics and matrices, while many of the graphical techniques are accessible without any knowledge of statistical models, requiring only some familiarity with the plotting of functions and with the concept of projection from elementary mechanical drawing.

Download or read book Studies in the Atmospheric Sciences written by Mark L. Berliner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand and predict the processes that influence the Earth's atmosphere is one of the grand scientific challenges for the next century. This volume is a series of case studies and review chapters that cover many of the recent developments in statistical methodology that are useful for interpreting atmospheric data. L. Mark Berliner is Professor of Statistics at Ohio State University.

Download or read book Weighted Empirical Processes in Dynamic Nonlinear Models written by Hira L. Koul and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified approach for obtaining the limiting distributions of minimum distance. It discusses classes of goodness-of-t tests for fitting an error distribution in some of these models and/or fitting a regression-autoregressive function without assuming the knowledge of the error distribution. The main tool is the asymptotic equi-continuity of certain basic weighted residual empirical processes in the uniform and L2 metrics.

Download or read book Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks written by Radford M. Neal and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial "neural networks" are widely used as flexible models for classification and regression applications, but questions remain about how the power of these models can be safely exploited when training data is limited. This book demonstrates how Bayesian methods allow complex neural network models to be used without fear of the "overfitting" that can occur with traditional training methods. Insight into the nature of these complex Bayesian models is provided by a theoretical investigation of the priors over functions that underlie them. A practical implementation of Bayesian neural network learning using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is also described, and software for it is freely available over the Internet. Presupposing only basic knowledge of probability and statistics, this book should be of interest to researchers in statistics, engineering, and artificial intelligence.

Download or read book Empirical Bayes and Likelihood Inference written by S.E. Ahmed and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian and such approaches to inference have a number of points of close contact, especially from an asymptotic point of view. Both emphasize the construction of interval estimates of unknown parameters. In this volume, researchers present recent work on several aspects of Bayesian, likelihood and empirical Bayes methods, presented at a workshop held in Montreal, Canada. The goal of the workshop was to explore the linkages among the methods, and to suggest new directions for research in the theory of inference.

Download or read book Statistical Inference for Spatial Poisson Processes written by Yu A. Kutoyants and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is devoted to several problems of parametric (mainly) and nonparametric estimation through the observation of Poisson processes defined on general spaces. Poisson processes are quite popular in applied research and therefore they attract the attention of many statisticians. There are a lot of good books on point processes and many of them contain chapters devoted to statistical inference for general and partic ular models of processes. There are even chapters on statistical estimation problems for inhomogeneous Poisson processes in asymptotic statements. Nevertheless it seems that the asymptotic theory of estimation for nonlinear models of Poisson processes needs some development. Here nonlinear means the models of inhomogeneous Pois son processes with intensity function nonlinearly depending on unknown parameters. In such situations the estimators usually cannot be written in exact form and are given as solutions of some equations. However the models can be quite fruitful in en gineering problems and the existing computing algorithms are sufficiently powerful to calculate these estimators. Therefore the properties of estimators can be interesting too.

Download or read book Practical Nonparametric and Semiparametric Bayesian Statistics written by Dipak D. Dey and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A compilation of original articles by Bayesian experts, this volume presents perspectives on recent developments on nonparametric and semiparametric methods in Bayesian statistics. The articles discuss how to conceptualize and develop Bayesian models using rich classes of nonparametric and semiparametric methods, how to use modern computational tools to summarize inferences, and how to apply these methodologies through the analysis of case studies.

Download or read book Case Studies in Environmental Statistics written by Douglas Nychka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a set of case studies exemplifying the broad range of statis tical science used in environmental studies and application. The case studies can be used for graduate courses in environmental statistics, as a resource for courses in statistics using genuine examples to illustrate statistical methodol ogy and theory, and for courses in environmental science. Not only are these studies valuable for teaching about an essential cross-disciplinary activity but they can also be used to spur new research along directions exposed in these examples. The studies reported here resulted from a program of research carried on by the National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS) during the years 1992- 1996. NISS was created in 1991 as an initiative of the national statistics or ganizations, with the mission to renew and focus efforts of statistical science on important cross-disciplinary problems. One of NISS' first projects was a cooperative research effort with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on problems of great interest to environmental science and regulation, surely one of today's most important cross-disciplinary activities. With the support and encouragement of Gary Foley, Director of the (then) U.S. EPA Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, a project and a research team were assembled by NISS that pursued a program which produced a set of results and products from which this book was drawn.

Download or read book Measuring Risk in Complex Stochastic Systems written by J. Franke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex dynamic processes of life and sciences generate risks that have to be taken. The need for clear and distinctive definitions of different kinds of risks, adequate methods and parsimonious models is obvious. The identification of important risk factors and the quantification of risk stemming from an interplay between many risk factors is a prerequisite for mastering the challenges of risk perception, analysis and management successfully. The increasing complexity of stochastic systems, especially in finance, have catalysed the use of advanced statistical methods for these tasks. The methodological approach to solving risk management tasks may, however, be undertaken from many different angles. A financial insti tution may focus on the risk created by the use of options and other derivatives in global financial processing, an auditor will try to evalu ate internal risk management models in detail, a mathematician may be interested in analysing the involved nonlinearities or concentrate on extreme and rare events of a complex stochastic system, whereas a statis tician may be interested in model and variable selection, practical im plementations and parsimonious modelling. An economist may think about the possible impact of risk management tools in the framework of efficient regulation of financial markets or efficient allocation of capital.

Download or read book Stochastic Processes and Orthogonal Polynomials written by Wim Schoutens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book offers an accessible reference for researchers in the probability, statistics and special functions communities. It gives a variety of interdisciplinary relations between the two main ingredients of stochastic processes and orthogonal polynomials. It covers topics like time dependent and asymptotic analysis for birth-death processes and diffusions, martingale relations for Lévy processes, stochastic integrals and Stein's approximation method. Almost all well-known orthogonal polynomials, which are brought together in the so-called Askey Scheme, come into play. This volume clearly illustrates the powerful mathematical role of orthogonal polynomials in the analysis of stochastic processes and is made accessible for all mathematicians with a basic background in probability theory and mathematical analysis. Wim Schoutens is a Postdoctoral Researcher of the Fund for Scientific Research-Flanders (Belgium). He received his PhD in Science from the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium.

Download or read book Random and Quasi Random Point Sets written by Peter Hellekalek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a collection of survey papers on recent developments in the fields of quasi-Monte Carlo methods and uniform random number generation. We will cover a broad spectrum of questions, from advanced metric number theory to pricing financial derivatives. The Monte Carlo method is one of the most important tools of system modeling. Deterministic algorithms, so-called uniform random number gen erators, are used to produce the input for the model systems on computers. Such generators are assessed by theoretical ("a priori") and by empirical tests. In the a priori analysis, we study figures of merit that measure the uniformity of certain high-dimensional "random" point sets. The degree of uniformity is strongly related to the degree of correlations within the random numbers. The quasi-Monte Carlo approach aims at improving the rate of conver gence in the Monte Carlo method by number-theoretic techniques. It yields deterministic bounds for the approximation error. The main mathematical tool here are so-called low-discrepancy sequences. These "quasi-random" points are produced by deterministic algorithms and should be as "super" uniformly distributed as possible. Hence, both in uniform random number generation and in quasi-Monte Carlo methods, we study the uniformity of deterministically generated point sets in high dimensions. By a (common) abuse oflanguage, one speaks of random and quasi-random point sets. The central questions treated in this book are (i) how to generate, (ii) how to analyze, and (iii) how to apply such high-dimensional point sets.

Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment with the X 11 Method written by Dominique Ladiray and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most widely used statistical method in seasonal adjustment is implemented in the X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. Developed by the US Bureau of the Census, it resulted in the X-11-ARIMA software and the X-12-ARIMA. While these integrate parametric methods, they remain close to the initial X-11 method, and it is this "core" that Seasonal Adjustment with the X-11 Method focuses on. It will be an important reference for government agencies, and other serious users of economic data.

Download or read book Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics written by Constantine Gatsonis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 4th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Car negie Mellon University campus on September 27-28, 1997. As in the past, the workshop featured both invited and contributed case studies. The former were presented and discussed in detail while the latter were presented in poster format. This volume contains the four invited case studies with the accompanying discus sion as well as nine contributed papers selected by a refereeing process. While most of the case studies in the volume come from biomedical research the reader will also find studies in environmental science and marketing research. INVITED PAPERS In Modeling Customer Survey Data, Linda A. Clark, William S. Cleveland, Lorraine Denby, and Chuanhai LiD use hierarchical modeling with time series components in for customer value analysis (CVA) data from Lucent Technologies. The data were derived from surveys of customers of the company and its competi tors, designed to assess relative performance on a spectrum of issues including product and service quality and pricing. The model provides a full description of the CVA data, with random location and scale effects for survey respondents and longitudinal company effects for each attribute. In addition to assessing the performance of specific companies, the model allows the empirical exploration of the conceptual basis of consumer value analysis. The authors place special em phasis on graphical displays for this complex, multivariate set of data and include a wealth of such plots in the paper.