Download or read book Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises The Role of Early Warning Systems written by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
Download or read book The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-09-11 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.
Download or read book Assessing Early Warning Systems written by Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.
Download or read book The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises written by Andrew Berg and published by . This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes a look at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.
Download or read book Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems written by Ms.Chikako Oka and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.
Download or read book The Political Economy of Emerging Markets written by J. Santiso and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-08-22 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book takes a cross-disciplinary look at the financial markets of emerging markets in Latin America. The author wants to disassemble the black box that is the financial market: what are the motivations and interests of the various actors, both institutional and individual?; How do these interact with each other?; How does this information help us understand the Mexican crisis in the 90s and the current crisis in Argentina? The author has conducted extensive interviews with brokers, asset managers, economists, strategists, and analysts in the US, UK, Europe, and Latin America, providing significant material for this study.
Download or read book The IMF FSB Early Warning Exercise Design and Methodological Toolkit written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-26 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Download or read book Risk and Contingency Management Breakthroughs in Research and Practice written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In business, mistakes and errors will inevitably occur. As such, organizations must be constantly alert and ready to meet challenges head-on. Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice is a comprehensive reference source for the latest scholarly material on trends and techniques for the prediction and evaluation of financial risks and how to diminish their effect. Highlighting a range of pertinent topics such as project management, risk auditing and reporting, and resource management, this multi-volume book is ideally designed for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in risk and contingency management.
Download or read book Elgar Encyclopedia of Financial Crises written by Sara Hsu and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-12-11 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning with the 2008 global crisis in the United States, and particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic shook economies around the world, academics, practitioners, and other experts have become increasingly sensitised to the potential for financial and economic fragility to result in a systemic breakdown. Presenting a synopsis of lessons learnt from financial crises arising out of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries, each entry examines a unique past issue to help to develop future outcomes, operating as a touchstone for further research.
Download or read book Governance Development and Conflict written by Manas Chatterji and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A considerable amount of work has been conducted in the field of peace studies, conflict management, peace science in economics, sociology, anthropology and management. This title presents research with an emphasis on theoretical and mathematical constructs in the area of peace economics & peace science.
Download or read book Private Sector Involvement and International Financial Crises written by Michael Chui and published by Oxford University Press on Demand. This book was released on 2005-01-27 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book integrates analyses of sovereign debt and crises in financial markets. Issues examined include the design of sovereign bankruptcy procedures, and the role of the IMF in influencing creditors and debtor countries"--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book Turkish Foreign Policy in Post Cold War Era written by İdris Bal and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2004 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the end of Cold War discipline the world has entered a new era. Parameters have changed; new handicaps as well as new opportunities have been created for countries. Turkey as a neighbor of former USSR, a member of NATO and located at the center of a sensitive region covered by Caucasus, Balkans and Middle East, has been affected by the end of Cold War radically. Turkey has lost some of her bargaining cards in the new era and therefore has needed new arguments. This need encouraged Turkey to take active steps in Post Cold War era. This book analyzes Turkey s relations with US, EU, Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, China and Japan. At the same time, effects of economic crises and domestic developments on foreign policy, Turkish model in Turkish foreign policy, water conflict and Kurdish problem are analyzed as well. To conclude, it is possible to argue that although Turkey lost some of her bargaining cards in Post Cold War era, new developments pushed Turkey to the center of world politics rather then to periphery. Contributors: Meliha Benli Altunisik, Deniz Ülke Aribogan, Hüseyin Bagci, Idris Bal, Zeyno Baran, Fulya Kip Barnard, Erol Bulut, Ibrahim S. Canbolat, Saziye Gazioglu, Ramazan Gözen, Saban Kardas, H. Bülent Olcay, Cengiz Okman, Henry E. Paniev, Victor Panin, Dirk Rochtus, Faruk Sönmezoglu, Gül Turan, Ilter Turan, Mustafa Türkes, Nasuh Uslu.
Download or read book Foucault and Post Financial Crises written by John G. Glenn and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-25 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title explains the causes of the financial crisis and the economic reforms that were created subsequently through a Foucauldian philosophical lens. The author sets out the approaches established by Foucault – namely governmentality, biopolitics and disciplinary mechanisms – explaining how these influenced the shift of production from a local to a global level, alongside a shift towards financialisation. Glenn applies Foucauldian principles to aid understanding of the self-corrective mechanisms applied to the financial system, and the interpellative processes that led to the emergence of a new mode of subjectification. Concurrently, this title examines the retreat of the state from the financial sphere. This shift, the author posits, did not mean the complete absence of governance; rather governance became more concerned with ensuring that financial behaviour was contained within certain limits.
Download or read book Financial Sector Assessment written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The experience of many countries around the world clearly shows that while financial sector development can spur economic growth, financial fragility and instability can seriously harm growth. Following the financial crises of the late 1990s, there has been increasing interest in the systematic assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of financial systems, with the ultimate goal of formulating appropriate policies to foster financial stability, and stimulate financial sector development. Consequently, there has been an increased demand from financial sector authorities in many countries, as well as from the Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff for information on key issues, and sound practices in the assessment of financial systems, and in the design of policy responses. This Handbook of Financial Sector Assessment is a response to this demand. The Handbook presents an overall analytical framework for assessing financial system stability and developmental needs, providing broad guidance on approaches, methodologies, and techniques of assessing financial systems. Although the Handbook draws substantially on Bank and IMF experience with the financial sector assessment programs (FSAPs), and from the broader policy and operational work in both institutions, it is designed for generic use in financial sector assessments, whether conducted by country authorities themselves, or by Bank and IMF teams. It is, therefore, hoped the Handbook will serve as an authoritative source on the objectives, analytical framework, and methodologies of financial sector assessments, as well as a comprehensive reference book for training on the techniques of such assessments.
Download or read book Malaysia written by Mr.Yougesh Khatri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2001-08-27 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses how Malaysia can better protect itself from future shocks and avoid another crisis while it seeks to regain its position as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. To these ends, its strategy should include continued structural reforms to achieve healthy balance sheets of the banking and corporate sectors; further deregulation to promote competition and efficiency; and consistent macroeconomic policies to maintain financial stability and sustainable fiscal and external positions. Malaysia's economic structure and performance were relatively strong prior to the crisis. Malaysia’s initial low level of short-term external debt enabled it to maintain foreign reserves at a reasonably high level, and this contributed to relatively robust external and domestic confidence early on in the crisis. As a consequence of financial vigilance exercised through prudential regulation of capital movements, the exposure of the financial and corporate systems was contained. Stock market capitalization in Malaysia grew to an extremely high level prior to the crisis, reflecting both the fast expansion of the capital market and liberal capital account regime.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 52 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-12-22 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
Download or read book World Economic Outlook September 2003 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-10 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, and economics in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
