Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.
Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.
Download or read book Applied International Trade Analysis written by Harry Bowen and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An international trade text that integrates theoretical and applied methods
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance written by Adrian R. Bell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples. Written by international experts in their field, the unique approach describes a question or issue in finance and then demonstrates the methodologies that may be used to solve it. All of the techniques described are used to address real problems rather than being presented for their own sake, and the areas of application have been carefully selected so that a broad range of methodological approaches can be covered. The Handbook is aimed primarily at doctoral researchers and academics who are engaged in conducting original empirical research in finance. In addition, the book will be useful to researchers in the financial markets and also advanced Masters-level students who are writing dissertations.
Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Download or read book The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency written by Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
Download or read book Persistence in the Variability of Daily Exchange Rates written by Mr.George C. Tsibouris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile exchange rate behavior by magnifying the impact of exogenous shocks. Empirical evidence is presented which is consistent with such autocatalytic effects.
Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Robert Schmidt and published by Peter Lang Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with psychological factors, which may be important for understanding the observable exchange rate movements. Thus, the study belongs to the new research field of behavioral economics, which considers the relevance of psychological factors in economic contexts. The main objective of behavioral economists is to develop a more realistic view of the actual human behavior in the context of economics. Central to the concept of behavioral economics is the assumption that humans' actual behavior deviates from the ideal of economic rationality due to at least two reasons: first, decisions are usually based on an incomplete information basis and, second, the information processing of human beings is limited by their computational capacities. Due to these limitations people are forced to apply simple heuristics in information processing. Our aim is to analyze the relevance of simple heuristics in the context of foreign exchange markets. In our view, the decision situation in foreign exchange markets can serve as a prime example for decision situations in which simple heuristics are especially relevant as the complexity of the decision situation is very high.
Download or read book Noise Trading Central Bank Interventions and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-12-06 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.
Download or read book Short run and Long run Expectations of the Yen Dollar Exchange Rate written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the following features. First, the expected exchange rate changes in the short horizon (one month) are of the band-wagon type while the expected changes in the long horizon (three to six months) are of the mean- reversion type. That is, foreign exchange traders infer from recent appreciations or depreciation that the recent change in the exchange rate will continue for a while, but the direction of changes will reverse, eventually. Second, this result is robust for the entire sample period, which includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the deviation from an equilibrium exchange rate does not yield a robust estimate in the regression of expectation formation. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several years, they are not captured in the six-month expectations in the survey data.
Download or read book Master s Theses Directories written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Description and Analysis of Certain European Capital Markets written by United States. Department of the Treasury and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Report of the President written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 1228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-15 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
Download or read book Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies 1983 written by T. Basar and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-05-17 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies 1983 contains the proceedings of the Fourth IFAC/IFORS/IIASA Conference and the 1983 SEDC Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control held at Washington D.C., USA on June17-19, 1983. Separating the 65 papers presented in the conference as chapters, this book covers a broad class of problems or notions arising both in economic theory, control applications to planning, and implementation issues. Some chapters discuss multi-level interactions of government and private sectors in economic development; inflation and economic policy in an open economy; foreign debt and exchange rate stability in a developing country; and expectations in numerical general equilibrium models. This book also explains a rational decision-making process for resource policymaking; inference of the structure of economic reasoning from natural language analysis; modeling and analysis of a national economy; and methodological issues in global modeling. Econometric analysis of the economic effects of population change, aspects of optimal estimation control strategies in econometrics, and optimal policies for interdependent economies are also discussed. This book will be useful to those engaged in economic and control theory research.
